Decisionmaking In Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: The Strategic Shift of 2007 Dr Steven Metz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In Volume 1 of the Operation IRAQI FREEDOM Key Decisions Monograph Series, Dr. Steven Metz skillfully studied the 2003 decision to go to war in Iraq. The results of that decision are widely called disastrous. In this second volume of the series, Dr. Metz looks carefully at the 2007 decision to surge forces into Iraq, a choice which is generally considered to have been effective in turning the tide of the war from potential disaster to possible—perhaps probable—strategic success. Although numerous strategic decisions remain to be made as the U.S. military executes its “responsible withdrawal” from Iraq, Dr. Metz has encapsulated much of the entire war in these two monographs, describing both the start and what may eventually be seen as the beginning of the end of the war. In this volume, he provides readers with an explanation of how a decision process that was fundamentally unchanged—with essentially the same people shaping and making the decision—could produce such a different result in 2007. As the current administration tries to replicate the surge in Afghanistan, this monograph is especially timely and shows the perils of attempting to achieve success in one strategic situation by copying actions successfully taken in another where different conditions applied."

Implications of a Changing NATO COL Phillip R Cuccia Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "NATO officials plan to unveil the new North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Strategic Concept during the Alliance’s summit in Portugal at the end of 2010. This monograph focuses on the impact that the Strategic Concept will have on the Alliance. This analysis describes recent trends within NATO and their implications, and provides senior military and political leaders with a discussion of the changing composition of the NATO nations and the impact of these changes on the nature of the Alliance. The monograph describes four possible scenarios of what NATO could look like in the future so as to give senior leaders thoughts to consider while instituting NATO policy."

Thinking about Nuclear Power in Post-Saddam Iraq Dr Norman Cigar Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph provides an overview and analysis of thinking in Iraq on the issue of nuclear power. Nuclear power has long held a special fascination for Iraq, and despite past controversies, this issue continues to draw the attention of numerous influential Iraqis in the post-Saddam era. Informed public opinion in Iraq today is clearly a more important factor for understanding the background of decisionmaking than it was during the Saddam era, so that this monograph addresses the views of all the sectors of Iraqi society likely to have an input into decisionmaking in this arena."

The Construction of Liberal Democracy: The Role of Civil-Military Institutions in State and Nation-Building in West Germany and South Africa Dr Jack J Porter Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph analyzes the decisionmaking process behind the construction of German and South African armed forces in their transition to democracy. Dr. Jack Porter begins the study by outlining the central theoretical and practical challenges associated with designing democratic armed forces and civil-military institutions. In essence, the overriding goal for these communities is two-fold: the creation of military institutions that are capable of both defending the fledgling democracy from internal and external threats, while also proactively contributing to the consolidation of liberal democracy. Building on the civil-military classics of Samuel Huntington and Morris Janowitz, Dr. Porter then reviews recent case studies that focus on the efforts of post-communist states to democratize their armed forces. A brief discussion of the relatively new policy field of security sector reform (SSR) concludes the introduction."

Crime, Violence, and the Crisis in Guatemala: A Case Study in the Erosion of the State Dr Hal Brands Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In numerous Latin American countries, organized crime and violence are corroding governance and imperiling democratic legitimacy. This phenomenon is most severe in Guatemala, which is currently experiencing a full-blown crisis of the democratic state. An unholy trinity of criminal elements—international drug traffickers, domestically based organized crime syndicates, and youth gangs—have dramatically expanded their operations since the 1990s, and are effectively waging a form of irregular warfare against government institutions."

Criminal Sovereignty: Understanding North Korea's Illicit International Activities Dr Bruce E Bechtol Jr, Mr Robert M Collins, Dr Paul Rexton Kan Monograph by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The authors of this monograph have exposed a key piece of the puzzle which helps to provide a better understanding of North Korea’s surreptitious international behavior. For years, North Korea’s military provocations have been obvious to the world, however, much of its decisionmaking is shrouded in secrecy, particularly that of a wide-range of clandestine activities. This monograph is unique in the way that it sheds light on the illicit activities of the regime, and how those illegal activities are used to support its military programs and the government itself."

Transnational Insurgencies and the Escalation of Regional Conflict: Lessons for Iraq and Afghanistan Dr Idean Salehyan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Idean Salehyan examines several recent transnational insurgencies and their implications for regional relations. While the majority of cases resulted in an escalation of conflict between neighbors, in some instances countries have been able to construct successful border security regimes. This monograph discusses these patterns of conflict and cooperation. Additionally, detailed analyses of the relations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as well as India and its neighbors, are offered to shed light on positive and negative dynamics."

Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending? Dr Clayton K S Chun Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph explores the impact that oil revenue had on the national defense spending of five oil-exporting countries. Despite periods of falling oil revenues, these countries typically did not lower defense spending. In some cases, defense spending increased sharply, or the rate of decrease was much lower than the drop in oil revenues. This condition creates challenges for national security professionals. If nations face falling oil revenues and still have the will and ability to expand their military or security capabilities, then they might do so through the sacrifice of domestic spending or regional stability. Economic sanctions, worldwide recession, or falling oil demand may not stop these oil-exporting nations from purchasing weapons and creating large security forces. Although oil might have been a key to provide past or future earnings expectations to fund defense, perhaps there are other reasons why nations want relatively high defense spending levels despite lower oil revenue. The politics of oil and its impact on government control, regional threats, national interests, and other strategic factors may explain why these nations pursue defense spending despite falling oil revenue."

Decisionmaking in Operation IRAQI FREEDOM: Removing Saddam Hussein by Force Prof John R Martin, Dr Steven Metz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "With this initial volume of its Operation IRAQI FREEDOM Key Decisions Monograph Series, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) also attempts to write about key decisions while they are still fresh in the memories of the participants. As with General Smith’s articles, this series will not produce a definitive history; that is still years away. However, the series will make a major contribution to understanding decisions made by senior military and civilian leaders during the several years thus far of the war in Iraq. I am pleased to inaugurate the series, which looks more at the how and why of certain decisions than at the results of those same decisions. This will be particularly useful to senior leaders—both uniformed and civilian—as they reflect on how decisions were made regarding Iraq and how better decisions might be made in future conflicts."