Strategy & Policy

R. Evan Ellis, ©2025 R. Evan Ellis; Monograph from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; Innovative new thinking on the security dimension of the challenges posed by the PRC’s engagement in Latin America and the DoD’s role in the whole-of-government US response is needed. This monograph highlights risks from PRC influence networks, digital architectures, and dual-use commercial facilities in the region, particularly at ports and in the space sector; shows how PRC economic engagement and other support sustains illiberal regimes, indirectly contributing to the risks these regimes pose by hosting criminal and terrorist groups and other US adversaries, such as Russia and Iran; and illustrates how commercial, people-to-people, and security engagements create options for the PRC to exploit against the United States in times of war. It advocates for new effects-based strategic concepts for how the DoD can strengthen cooperation with the region and limit PRC access through enhanced security cooperation and leveraging partners’ valuation of their relationships with the United States to influence their choices regarding cooperation with the PRC and gain better situational awareness for responding to China. Finally, it discusses how the United States should work with regional partners to plan for likely PRC actions in the region in times of war, leveraging the presence, relationships, and knowledge created through engagement.

Edited by Dr. George M. Schwartz; Conference proceedings from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In February 2024, The US Army War College hosted the first of an annual series of Homeland Defense Symposiums at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The purpose of the symposium was to examine the challenges of Homeland Defense while advancing research and proposing solutions to strategic challenges facing the Army, Joint Force, and governmental agencies. Partnering with leading agencies to examine these issues, the symposium informed the strategic thought being focused on homeland defense issues, both inside and out of the military, with a multi-faceted focus of deterring aggression, defeating an adversary should deterrence fail, and mitigating the impact of the adversary’s actions against our people, our infrastructure, and our institutions. This compendium summarizes the symposium proceedings and makes a major contribution to the existing body of knowledge regarding the mission, concepts, and challenges of homeland defense. The US Army War College will use the results of the symposium to shape continued examination of and offer solutions to this vital topic.

AY25 Campaign Planning Handbook Handbook by the School of Strategic Learning, US Army War College The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint task forces (JTF), and Service component commands. It supplements joint doctrine and contains elements of emerging doctrine as practiced globally by joint force commanders (JFCs). It portrays a way to apply draft doctrine awaiting signature, published doctrine, and emerging concepts, all at the higher levels of joint command, with a primary emphasis at the combatant command level.

by LTC Aaron “Blair” Wilcox and Colonel (RET) Rick O’Donnell; Issue paper from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The paper discusses the US Army's efforts to implement a new talent management strategy based on newly available data from over four years of assessments. It emphasizes the need to leverage data from assessment programs like the Battalion Commander Assessment Program (BCAP) and Colonels Command Assessment Program (CCAP) to select the best leaders for specific roles. The authors argue that current selection processes rely too heavily on subjective assessments and personal knowledge, while neglecting valuable, objective data newly available from BCAP and CCAP.

by COL Erin H. Frazier (USA), COL Robert F. Jordan (USA), Lt Col Joseph G. Dolce (USAF), LTC Tyler J. Waterhouse (USAR), LTC Allan S. Jackman (USA), Under the direction of Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This is a report that outlines the transformative potential of human-machine integration (HMI) in military operations over the next two decades. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive changes across the DOTMLPF-P framework (Doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy) to maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts. The report identifies key areas of impact, including command and maneuver, ethical AI-enhanced decision-making, and future-proofing military capabilities, highlighting the integration of advanced technologies such as brain0computer interfaces and augmented reality. Ethical considerations and the development of a technologically proficient military workforce are underscored as crucial elements of this evolution.

COL Mike Flury, COL Andi Tallman, LTC Troy Johnson, LTC Nick Panepinto, LTC Patrick Ryan; Publication from US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Strategic Blueprint: Creating a Multipolar World Through 2035 is a comprehensive analysis exploring China’s strategic ambitions to establish a China-led international order by 2035. The report delves into China’s likely use of hybrid warfare tactics, including economic and cyber warfare, to challenge the current U.S.-led global norms. It also examines China’s strategic partnerships, particularly with Russia, and its initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which aim to expand its influence without forming traditional military alliances, reflecting China’s preference for flexible partnerships over rigid alliances.

LTC Jeffrey Paulus, LTC Michael Gourgues, COL Argot Carberry, LTC Nicholas Milkovich, LTC Scott Henrickson; Strategic Assessment from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive strategic assessment, conducted by the U.S. Army War College student team Terra Certamine, explores China’s perspective on U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and forecasts Beijing’s potential strategies to destabilize these relationships by 2035. The analysis indicates that China perceives U.S. alliances as destabilizing and unreliable, and is likely to leverage economic cooperation and infrastructure investments through initiatives like the Belt and Road to counter U.S. influence. The report also highlights China’s ambition to establish strongpoints in strategic maritime chokepoints and expand its military presence to secure its interests and counter U.S. regional dominance.

by COL Leslie Carlson, LTC Fidel Arvelo, LTC Phillip Cain, LTC Samuel Meyer, and Lt Col Dorian Hatcher; Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive report, authored by the student team Techno-Warfare Group, examines the integration of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, advanced AI, and autonomous systems, forecasting their transformative impact on military strategy and the skillsets leaders will require to dominate in this new era of conflict.

by COL Adam S. Camarano, LtCol Sung G. Kim, LTC William Prince Jr., LTC Robert H. Topper Jr., LTC Christopher A. Wilson; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Divine Move offers a strategic analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to reunify with Taiwan, examining the conditions necessary for this goal within the broader context of China’s grand strategy for global dominance. The report assesses the likelihood of various strategies, including a fait accompli, blockade, or military invasion, and evaluates China’s capabilities in maritime, economic, technological, and cyber domains. It concludes that while military action is unlikely due to potential global disruptions, China is likely to pursue strategic conditions for reunification by leveraging its comprehensive national power.