Center for Strategic Leadership

Edited by Dr. Michele Devlin, Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz, and CDR Travis Pantaleo; Layout by Ms. Nancy Martin. The environment is the ultimate domain in which the warfighter operates. Whether land, sea, air, or space, Environmental Security is a defense specialty that better equips warfighters in the fight to respond to the unique physical, atmospheric, ecological, and human terrain of their operating environment. The Academic Year 2025 Environmental Security Scholars Program (ESSP) at the U.S. Army War College prepares students to become lethal and effective senior leaders in cutting-edge specialty areas within this field. ESSP team members at the Army War College conducted cutting-edge research on critically important projects sponsored by organizations across the Department of War. They participated in specialized courses on environmental security, collaborated with an innovative network of subject matter experts, explored remote regions, and developed essential skills to serve as senior leaders in a volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous world. This publication summarizes their research and activities throughout the year.

by COL Edward Kim, COL Cory Reiter, COL Charles Diggs, LTC Eric Giannaris, and LTC Robert Blome. The team conducted their research under the direction of Professor Samuel White (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This USAWC student team, Project Leo (AFRICOM Futures), prepared this report answers a strategic question posed by Gen Dagvin Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM): “What innovations will alter the balance of power across Africa by 2045?” The report finds that by 2045, the balance of power in Africa will likely depend not on any single innovation but on who can leverage converging innovations. The same innovations that might strengthen states will instead empower their rivals wherever institutional capacity is weak. Non-state actors are likely to exploit this convergence faster because they face fewer barriers to adoption. Five key findings frame the analysis: (1) non-state actors are building parallel governance, (2) service delivery, not warfare, decides outcomes, (3) state financial sovereignty is eroding from multiple directions, (4) China is building structural dependency, and (5) the outcome is still contested but the window is closing. The study concludes that the outcome is genuinely contested. But the window in which it remains is closing. The irreversibility threshold between 2028 and 2031 marks the point at which VEO governance roots, Chinese infrastructure lock-in, and African fiscal sovereignty erosion converge beyond the reach of feasible policy reversal.

by COL Joseph Kaminski, COL John Seitz, LTC Matthew Barwick, LTC Tanner Dunlap, LTC James Sye. The team conducted their research under the direction of Professor Matt Rasmussen (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This USAWC student team, Project Quantum Advantage), prepared this report answers a strategic question posed by Major General Rhett R. Cox, Deputy G2 on behalf of Lieutenant General Michelle A. Schmidt, Army G2,: “What are the likely quantum sensing technologies that will shape the strategic operating environment between the United States and the PRC by 2035?” By 2035, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are likely to compete in a strategic environment in which quantum sensing is likely to change the character of war by reducing the effectiveness of concealment. Quantum sensing is likely to make previously undetectable signals and structures visible to both US and PRC collection enterprises. This change is likely to undermine stealth, subterranean concealment, and low-observable operations. Five key findings frame the analysis: (1) U.S. likely to maintain Quantum sensing lead through 2035, (2) Q-PNT, RYDAR, and Gravimetry likely fielded by 2035, (3) PRC dual-use Quantum sensing likely to evade standard indications and warnings by 2035, and (4) ecosystem integration like to decide Quantum advantage by 2035. The study concludes that Quantum advantage is likely to go to the actor that commits to promising technologies, avoids the implausible ones, and best integrates the complete quantum ecosystem across workforce, manufacturing, data fusion, and fielding pipelines.

by COL Thomas M. McInnis (USAR), LtCol Jordan Bathen (USMC), LTC Joshua Meador (USA), LTC Anthony Allen (USA), Mr. Lance G. Critchley (DAC), Mr. Kevin Boyce (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This collective strategic research project examines the People’s Republic of China’s pursuit of decision advantage through military intelligentization by 2035. Developed by Futures Seminar Team Proxima Horizonte at the United States Army War College, the study synthesizes analysis from 276 open source materials and applies Intelligence Community Directive 203 estimative probability standards to assess the likelihood that China’s investments will translate into sustained battlefield advantage. The report finds that while the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is likely to achieve episodic decision advantage in discrete operational windows, structural constraints make sustained decision dominance over a peer adversary unlikely within the forecast horizon. Four key findings frame the analysis: (1) infrastructure built on unsecured foundations, (2) human and institutional constraints on intelligentization, (3) the emergence of automated active defense producing temporary advantages, and (4) biotechnical enhancement as a compensatory pathway. The study concludes that China is likely evolving beyond intelligentization toward a post intelligentization concept of warfare—termed cognitivization—that prioritizes manipulation of adversary perception, interpretation, and decision making rather than decisive technological overmatch.

2025 Homeland Defense Symposium Compendium Editors: Prof. Bert Tussing, Dr. George Schwartz, Dr. John ‘Charles’ Anderson. Conference Papers by: Dr. Erik Dahl, Dr. John Comiskey, Amy Lay, Ashley Reichert, Cary Underwood, Julianne Ortman; The United States Army War College’s 2025 Homeland Defense Symposium presented a unique opportunity for a whole-of-nation discussion and for information sharing on extant and emerging threats to the United States homeland. The research, presentations, key points, and discussions are consolidated in a compendium in this inaugural issue of For the Common Defense. Approximately 125 security professionals from a wide variety of backgrounds including the Joint Force, all levels of government, and civilian academia, attended in-person or virtually for three days. They participated in the symposium because they recognize that our homeland is once again in danger. Our potential adversaries are already making preparations to conduct operations in the continental U.S. in the event of a future large- scale combat operation. They will strive to disrupt infrastructure and supply chains, generate civil unrest, and create multiple dilemmas for elected leaders with the goal of keeping our military forces out of the warfight overseas.

The Collins Center Update is a quarterly summary of programs and activities at the Center for Strategic Leader (CSL) at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC). This issue features articles on Gaming Homeland Defense Contingencies by Major Andrew Starkey and Professor Bert Tussing; The Homeland Defense Defender’s Elective by Master Sergeant Ronald Bittner; Army War College Fellows Focus by Ms. Patricia Hayes, the 2025 National Security Simulation Exercise of Competition, Crisis, and Conflict by Mr. Brian Foster; and The National Security Seminar Homeland Defense Workshop by Dr. George Schwartz.

By Colonel Larry A. Wyatt, Dr. Michele Devlin, Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz. Weather-induced instability, such as the 2023–24 dzud (a slow-onset Mongolian winter disaster characterized by large-scale livestock mortality), creates schisms adversaries use to expand their soft power, Mongolia’s movement toward US adversaries could indirectly threaten US national security by heightening instability, increasing competition, and disrupting global economic systems. Conversely, through increased environmental diplomacy, investment, and resilience building—and by promoting democratic partnerships to bolster regional stability and showcase US leadership while mitigating adversarial exploitation of vulnerable regions—the United States can mitigate the impacts of ecological challenges on its national security interests.

By Dr. William J. Barry, PhD and Lieutenant Colonel Aaron “Blair" Wilcox; Issue paper from the U.S. Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In the frenzy to adopt newly accessible artificial intelligence (AI) tools for military purposes, little public discussion has addressed the potential pitfalls. Despite the energy invested in developing the ideal generative AI (GenAI) tool for military applications, a trusted capability remains elusive across the US Army and the Joint Force. In May 2025, the US Army War College, the Global Information Dominance Experiment, and the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office partnered to test Donovan, a GenAI system developed by Scale AI, in the first classified war game focused on war plans at the theater-Army level. This experiment demonstrated the industry-partnership model required to build the tools the Army needs to maintain the cognitive edge in landpower.

George M. Schwartz, Editor; Conference papers from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership, US Army War College Press; Using disinformation and social media means, cognitive warfare seeks to shape the attitudes and behaviors of a civilian populace by negatively influencing and disrupting their cognitive processes, thus weakening a society’s political will and degrading national resilience. The authors of these papers provide insights and offer solutions for cognitive defense. Copyright: Chapter 1 – ©2025 Mark R. Landahl; Chapter 3 – ©2025 George M. Schwartz