Military Change & Transformation

by COL Doug Simmons, LtCol Kelly Raisch, LTC Krista Gueller, LTC Noel Chun, LTC Mike McCray Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership This comprehensive report analyzes the interplay between historical military innovations and future defense strategies, emphasizing the necessity of a dynamic Defense Innovation Ecosystem to maintain military superiority in the face of emerging global challenges. It explores critical factors such as strategic vision, cultural adaptability, and the integration of disruptive technologies, providing valuable insights for shaping effective military doctrines and enhancing the U.S. military’s readiness for future conflicts.

by COL Erin H. Frazier (USA), COL Robert F. Jordan (USA), Lt Col Joseph G. Dolce (USAF), LTC Tyler J. Waterhouse (USAR), LTC Allan S. Jackman (USA), Under the direction of Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This is a report that outlines the transformative potential of human-machine integration (HMI) in military operations over the next two decades. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive changes across the DOTMLPF-P framework (Doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy) to maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts. The report identifies key areas of impact, including command and maneuver, ethical AI-enhanced decision-making, and future-proofing military capabilities, highlighting the integration of advanced technologies such as brain0computer interfaces and augmented reality. Ethical considerations and the development of a technologically proficient military workforce are underscored as crucial elements of this evolution.

LTC Joseph “Joe” Bell (USA, Aviation), COL John Cooper (USA, Human Resources), LTC Kristine “Kris” Hinds (USAR, Logistics), LtCol Erik Keim (USMC, Communications), LTC Michael “Neal” Miller (USAR, Logistics), Faculty Advisor: Dr. Kathleen Moore; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores how contemporary conflicts shape future warfare by integrating diverse actors and technologies. The report emphasizes the increasing role of technology in warfare, highlighting the integration of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) advancements, rapid technological implementation, and the involvement of private sectors. It predicts that by 2035, warfare will be characterized by unprecedented visibility, rapid technological advancements, and lower barriers to entry, making everyone a potential player and everything a target in a “conflict-in-a-sandbox” environment. This evolution necessitates adapting strategies and enhancing collaboration among military and non-military entities to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities effectively.

COL Luke Clover, COL Stacy Moore-Callaway, COL Erik Oksenvaag, LTC John Oliver, LTC Eric Soler; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the potential transition of the U.S. Army to electrification and carbon neutrality by 2035, identifying key technologies, challenges, and recommendations. It highlights the likelihood of emerging capabilities in redundant power generation, assured energy, and smart tech synergy, which are expected to support this transition despite obstacles like supply chain issues and infrastructure costs. The document emphasizes the importance of public-private partnerships, advancements in energy storage, and the integration of smart technologies to achieve a sustainable and resilient military force.

by COL Nora Flott, COL Derek Baird, LTC(P) Tyler Standish, LTC(P) Brandon Van Orden, and LTC James Esquivel; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; An exploration of how the next generation of intelligence analysts, particularly those aged 18-22, are reshaping information consumption and communication through their reliance on digital platforms and AI technologies. With emphasis on the idea that while these digital natives are likely to enhance their critical thinking skills, their communication preferences will evolve towards more visual and interactive formats, significantly impacting the intelligence landscape of 2040.

by COL Leslie Carlson, LTC Fidel Arvelo, LTC Phillip Cain, LTC Samuel Meyer, and Lt Col Dorian Hatcher; Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive report, authored by the student team Techno-Warfare Group, examines the integration of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, advanced AI, and autonomous systems, forecasting their transformative impact on military strategy and the skillsets leaders will require to dominate in this new era of conflict.

by COL Adam S. Camarano, LtCol Sung G. Kim, LTC William Prince Jr., LTC Robert H. Topper Jr., LTC Christopher A. Wilson; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Divine Move offers a strategic analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to reunify with Taiwan, examining the conditions necessary for this goal within the broader context of China’s grand strategy for global dominance. The report assesses the likelihood of various strategies, including a fait accompli, blockade, or military invasion, and evaluates China’s capabilities in maritime, economic, technological, and cyber domains. It concludes that while military action is unlikely due to potential global disruptions, China is likely to pursue strategic conditions for reunification by leveraging its comprehensive national power.

by LTC Robert (Bob) McTighe, LTC Michael Mignano, COL John C. Haas, Jr., COL Robert “Bobby” Shadowens, and COL Keith Vanyo. Under the direction of Professor Kathleen Moore, Ph.D.; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the strategic challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the year 2035, focusing on emerging technologies, geopolitical shifts, and military innovations. This insightful analysis offers a comprehensive framework for policymakers and military leaders to navigate the complexities of future warfare and maintain national security.

LTC Owen Adams, Mr. Reginald Shuford, COL Nathaniel Stone, LTC Nicole Washington, COL Dennis Weaver; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This report provides a strategic analysis of the future integration of human-machine teaming (HMT) in military operations. The document explores the technological, ethical, and operational implications of HMT, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize battlefield dynamics by enhancing decision-making, efficiency, and effectiveness. According to this report, by 2040, it is highly likely that HMT will be characterized by increased autonomy, advanced AI capabilities, and a shift towards more robotic and socially interactive systems, all while navigating the complex landscape of legal and ethical considerations. The report underscores the importance of trust, governance, and international cooperation in the successful deployment of HMT systems, highlighting the need for robust frameworks to manage the technological advancements and their societal impacts.