Futures Seminar

by COL Edward Kim, COL Cory Reiter, COL Charles Diggs, LTC Eric Giannaris, and LTC Robert Blome. The team conducted their research under the direction of Professor Samuel White (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This USAWC student team, Project Leo (AFRICOM Futures), prepared this report answers a strategic question posed by Gen Dagvin Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM): “What innovations will alter the balance of power across Africa by 2045?” The report finds that by 2045, the balance of power in Africa will likely depend not on any single innovation but on who can leverage converging innovations. The same innovations that might strengthen states will instead empower their rivals wherever institutional capacity is weak. Non-state actors are likely to exploit this convergence faster because they face fewer barriers to adoption. Five key findings frame the analysis: (1) non-state actors are building parallel governance, (2) service delivery, not warfare, decides outcomes, (3) state financial sovereignty is eroding from multiple directions, (4) China is building structural dependency, and (5) the outcome is still contested but the window is closing. The study concludes that the outcome is genuinely contested. But the window in which it remains is closing. The irreversibility threshold between 2028 and 2031 marks the point at which VEO governance roots, Chinese infrastructure lock-in, and African fiscal sovereignty erosion converge beyond the reach of feasible policy reversal.

by COL Joseph Kaminski, COL John Seitz, LTC Matthew Barwick, LTC Tanner Dunlap, LTC James Sye. The team conducted their research under the direction of Professor Matt Rasmussen (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This USAWC student team, Project Quantum Advantage), prepared this report answers a strategic question posed by Major General Rhett R. Cox, Deputy G2 on behalf of Lieutenant General Michelle A. Schmidt, Army G2,: “What are the likely quantum sensing technologies that will shape the strategic operating environment between the United States and the PRC by 2035?” By 2035, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are likely to compete in a strategic environment in which quantum sensing is likely to change the character of war by reducing the effectiveness of concealment. Quantum sensing is likely to make previously undetectable signals and structures visible to both US and PRC collection enterprises. This change is likely to undermine stealth, subterranean concealment, and low-observable operations. Five key findings frame the analysis: (1) U.S. likely to maintain Quantum sensing lead through 2035, (2) Q-PNT, RYDAR, and Gravimetry likely fielded by 2035, (3) PRC dual-use Quantum sensing likely to evade standard indications and warnings by 2035, and (4) ecosystem integration like to decide Quantum advantage by 2035. The study concludes that Quantum advantage is likely to go to the actor that commits to promising technologies, avoids the implausible ones, and best integrates the complete quantum ecosystem across workforce, manufacturing, data fusion, and fielding pipelines.

by COL Thomas M. McInnis (USAR), LtCol Jordan Bathen (USMC), LTC Joshua Meador (USA), LTC Anthony Allen (USA), Mr. Lance G. Critchley (DAC), Mr. Kevin Boyce (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This collective strategic research project examines the People’s Republic of China’s pursuit of decision advantage through military intelligentization by 2035. Developed by Futures Seminar Team Proxima Horizonte at the United States Army War College, the study synthesizes analysis from 276 open source materials and applies Intelligence Community Directive 203 estimative probability standards to assess the likelihood that China’s investments will translate into sustained battlefield advantage. The report finds that while the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is likely to achieve episodic decision advantage in discrete operational windows, structural constraints make sustained decision dominance over a peer adversary unlikely within the forecast horizon. Four key findings frame the analysis: (1) infrastructure built on unsecured foundations, (2) human and institutional constraints on intelligentization, (3) the emergence of automated active defense producing temporary advantages, and (4) biotechnical enhancement as a compensatory pathway. The study concludes that China is likely evolving beyond intelligentization toward a post intelligentization concept of warfare—termed cognitivization—that prioritizes manipulation of adversary perception, interpretation, and decision making rather than decisive technological overmatch.

by COL Byron Cadiz, COL T. Marc Skinner, LTC Robert Mayhue, LTC Lori Perkins, LTC Shun Yu. This report, produced by US Army War College Futures research team Axis Insight 2035, represents eight months of rigorous research from October 2024 to May 2025 to answer Mr. Ian Sullivan, TRADOC G2’s pivotal question: How will China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea react to U.S.-led deterrence efforts by 2035? By 2035, it is almost certain that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will respond to US deterrence with entanglement, disruptive technology, and persistent coercion. The global landscape is rapidly transforming, characterized by increasing complexity and challenges to U.S. influence. This seismic shift is marked by two key findings, the first encompassed in three threat vectors: 1) an entangled future of situational cooperation and transactional interdependence among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea which amplifies deterrence challenges; 2) disruptive technology by which the U.S. advantages are severely threatened or lost to adversarial emerging technologies; and 3) persistent coercion consisting of the expansion and exploitation of gray zone activities in which aggression below the level of armed conflict bypasses traditional deterrence. Collectively, these developments forecast that U.S. deterrence is at risk of becoming strategically irrelevant without integrated, adaptive responses across all instruments of power.

by COL Joseph Gilbert, COL Matthew Miller, COL Christopher Ronald, LTC Benverren Fortune, LTC Steve Kwon. This report, produced by Team POETIC at the United States Army War College over 28 weeks from October 2024 through May 2025, addresses a critical strategic question posed by the Headquarters, Department of the Army, G2: What will the future of collaboration among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea likely look like over the next 10-15 years? Based on analysis of over 1,077 sources and interviews with subject matter experts, the study concludes that military, economic, and technological collaboration among these four nations is very likely (80-95%) to deepen but remain transactional, asymmetric, and opportunistic rather than forming a formal alliance. China emerges as the dominant force within this bloc, leveraging its economic strength and digital infrastructure exports to create asymmetric dependencies, while Russia, Iran, and North Korea provide complementary military-industrial assets, energy exports, and cyber capabilities. The research reveals that while these nations will likely strengthen cooperation through sanctions-resistant trade practices, dual-use technology sharing, and selective capability exchanges, internal mistrust, divergent priorities, and asymmetric capabilities will limit their global influence to regional theaters rather than creating a unified geopolitical front capable of fundamentally challenging the Western-led international order.

by COL Bradley Tibbetts, LTC Terrell Lawson, LTC William Hall, LTC Kale Sawyer, LTC Colin Gandy. This report, produced by the Irregular Advantage Initiative at the United States Army War College from October 2024 to May 2025, addresses Major General Shawn R. Satterfield's (SOCOM J7) critical question: what opportunities will emerge in the next 15-20 years to allow special operations forces to enable expanded maneuver of the Joint Force in Large-Scale Combat Operations? Through analysis of over 375 sources, the research team identified sixteen technological and operational opportunities organized into three key "Maneuver Accelerators": Unconventional Acquisition (leveraging shadow supply chains, additive manufacturing, and unmanned systems), Distributed Autonomous Organizations (using blockchain-enabled networks for decentralized operations), and Heutagogy with Human-Machine Integration (combining adaptive learning with cognitive enhancements). The report concludes that future SOF operators will transition from primarily physical-prowess-based forces to adaptable, technology-integrated teams capable of operating in contested environments, exploiting adversary dependencies while rapidly cycling between high and low-technology methods to enable Joint Force maneuver in an increasingly transparent and AI-dominated battlefield.

by COL Brian Wong, Col Mark Hannigan, LTC Sarah Easter Strayer, LTC Benjamin Stegmann, LTC Joe Hales. The U.S. military healthcare system faces fundamental transformation over the next 15 years as artificial intelligence, autonomous robotics, and emerging technologies reshape workforce composition and care delivery. This report, produced by Project MedEvX at the United States Army War College from October 2024 to May 2025, addresses U.S. Army Surgeon General LTG Mary K. Izaguirre's strategic question: Given the potential for Large-Scale Combat Operations, what human capital dynamics will likely shape military healthcare through 2040? The research reveals that human-level AI and autonomous systems will join medical rounds, electronic health records will achieve interoperability "without borders," AI-driven genomic mapping will revolutionize talent selection, and healthcare delivery will "decentralize to survive" through distributed autonomous organizations enabled by predictive logistics and remote surgery. This technocentric revolution presents opportunities for enhanced patient outcomes while creating significant challenges in workforce adaptation, cybersecurity, and ethical implementation that require military medicine to fundamentally reimagine its approach to training and human capital management.

by Mr. Benjamin Bahoque, COL David Taylor, COL Michael Smith, COL Kurt McDowell, LTC Katie Enochs. The U.S. military stands at a pivotal juncture, tasked with sustaining its maneuver warfare advantage through 2040 amidst rapid technological advancements, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and an increasingly complex multi-domain operational environment. This report, produced by a Futures Seminar Research Team at the United States Army War College, represents eight months of rigorous research from October 2024 to May 2025, addressing the Joint Staff J7 Lt Gen Anderson’s critical question: How can the U.S. military innovate to maintain its maneuver warfare advantage through 2040? Drawing on open-source documents and employing structured analytic techniques such as the Nominal Group Technique, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Process, Alternative Competing Hypotheses, and the Millhone Method, the report achieves moderate analytic confidence given the complexities of forecasting over a 15-year horizon. Five key findings anchor the analysis: the imperative of an elastic mindset, the centrality of rapid adaptation, the transformative potential of emerging technologies, the necessity of a unified innovation ecosystem, and the need for talent management reform. These findings collectively chart a strategic path to ensure the U.S. military remains agile, predictive, and dominant in an era of unprecedented disruption.

by COL Doug Simmons, LtCol Kelly Raisch, LTC Krista Gueller, LTC Noel Chun, LTC Mike McCray Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership This comprehensive report analyzes the interplay between historical military innovations and future defense strategies, emphasizing the necessity of a dynamic Defense Innovation Ecosystem to maintain military superiority in the face of emerging global challenges. It explores critical factors such as strategic vision, cultural adaptability, and the integration of disruptive technologies, providing valuable insights for shaping effective military doctrines and enhancing the U.S. military’s readiness for future conflicts.