Futures Seminar

LTC Joseph “Joe” Bell (USA, Aviation), COL John Cooper (USA, Human Resources), LTC Kristine “Kris” Hinds (USAR, Logistics), LtCol Erik Keim (USMC, Communications), LTC Michael “Neal” Miller (USAR, Logistics), Faculty Advisor: Dr. Kathleen Moore; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores how contemporary conflicts shape future warfare by integrating diverse actors and technologies. The report emphasizes the increasing role of technology in warfare, highlighting the integration of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) advancements, rapid technological implementation, and the involvement of private sectors. It predicts that by 2035, warfare will be characterized by unprecedented visibility, rapid technological advancements, and lower barriers to entry, making everyone a potential player and everything a target in a “conflict-in-a-sandbox” environment. This evolution necessitates adapting strategies and enhancing collaboration among military and non-military entities to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities effectively.

COL Luke Clover, COL Stacy Moore-Callaway, COL Erik Oksenvaag, LTC John Oliver, LTC Eric Soler; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the potential transition of the U.S. Army to electrification and carbon neutrality by 2035, identifying key technologies, challenges, and recommendations. It highlights the likelihood of emerging capabilities in redundant power generation, assured energy, and smart tech synergy, which are expected to support this transition despite obstacles like supply chain issues and infrastructure costs. The document emphasizes the importance of public-private partnerships, advancements in energy storage, and the integration of smart technologies to achieve a sustainable and resilient military force.

LTC Jeffrey Paulus, LTC Michael Gourgues, COL Argot Carberry, LTC Nicholas Milkovich, LTC Scott Henrickson; Strategic Assessment from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive strategic assessment, conducted by the U.S. Army War College student team Terra Certamine, explores China’s perspective on U.S. alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and forecasts Beijing’s potential strategies to destabilize these relationships by 2035. The analysis indicates that China perceives U.S. alliances as destabilizing and unreliable, and is likely to leverage economic cooperation and infrastructure investments through initiatives like the Belt and Road to counter U.S. influence. The report also highlights China’s ambition to establish strongpoints in strategic maritime chokepoints and expand its military presence to secure its interests and counter U.S. regional dominance.

by COL Nora Flott, COL Derek Baird, LTC(P) Tyler Standish, LTC(P) Brandon Van Orden, and LTC James Esquivel; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; An exploration of how the next generation of intelligence analysts, particularly those aged 18-22, are reshaping information consumption and communication through their reliance on digital platforms and AI technologies. With emphasis on the idea that while these digital natives are likely to enhance their critical thinking skills, their communication preferences will evolve towards more visual and interactive formats, significantly impacting the intelligence landscape of 2040.

by COL Leslie Carlson, LTC Fidel Arvelo, LTC Phillip Cain, LTC Samuel Meyer, and Lt Col Dorian Hatcher; Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive report, authored by the student team Techno-Warfare Group, examines the integration of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, advanced AI, and autonomous systems, forecasting their transformative impact on military strategy and the skillsets leaders will require to dominate in this new era of conflict.

by COL Adam S. Camarano, LtCol Sung G. Kim, LTC William Prince Jr., LTC Robert H. Topper Jr., LTC Christopher A. Wilson; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Divine Move offers a strategic analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to reunify with Taiwan, examining the conditions necessary for this goal within the broader context of China’s grand strategy for global dominance. The report assesses the likelihood of various strategies, including a fait accompli, blockade, or military invasion, and evaluates China’s capabilities in maritime, economic, technological, and cyber domains. It concludes that while military action is unlikely due to potential global disruptions, China is likely to pursue strategic conditions for reunification by leveraging its comprehensive national power.

by LTC Robert (Bob) McTighe, LTC Michael Mignano, COL John C. Haas, Jr., COL Robert “Bobby” Shadowens, and COL Keith Vanyo. Under the direction of Professor Kathleen Moore, Ph.D.; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the strategic challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the year 2035, focusing on emerging technologies, geopolitical shifts, and military innovations. This insightful analysis offers a comprehensive framework for policymakers and military leaders to navigate the complexities of future warfare and maintain national security.

LTC Owen Adams, Mr. Reginald Shuford, COL Nathaniel Stone, LTC Nicole Washington, COL Dennis Weaver; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This report provides a strategic analysis of the future integration of human-machine teaming (HMT) in military operations. The document explores the technological, ethical, and operational implications of HMT, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize battlefield dynamics by enhancing decision-making, efficiency, and effectiveness. According to this report, by 2040, it is highly likely that HMT will be characterized by increased autonomy, advanced AI capabilities, and a shift towards more robotic and socially interactive systems, all while navigating the complex landscape of legal and ethical considerations. The report underscores the importance of trust, governance, and international cooperation in the successful deployment of HMT systems, highlighting the need for robust frameworks to manage the technological advancements and their societal impacts.

by Andrew Culbreath, John Hosey, Brennan Kemper, Michael Stevic, and Michael Wacker; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this authoritative report, Team Janus from the U.S. Army War College delves into the transformative technologies poised to redefine land warfare by 2045. Through rigorous analysis, the report identifies three pivotal concepts – Latent Variable Environment, Times as a Domain, and Symbiotic Warfare – that will shape military strategies amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes. These insights are drawn from extensive research, including expert interviews and open-source data, providing military professionals with a strategic framework to anticipate and counter emerging threats.