Regional Issues

By Colonel John Campbell, Lieutenant Colonel Emmaline Hill, Lieutenant Colonel Eric Medina, Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz, and Dr. Michele Devlin. China is quietly turning the world’s last frontiers—the Arctic, Antarctica, and outer space—into interconnected arenas of strategic competition, using a sophisticated blend of psychological, public-opinion, and legal warfare to expand its influence while avoiding open conflict. This monograph reveals how the Chinese Communist Party exploits the volatility and legal gray areas of these isolated, contained, and extreme (ICE) environments. Using the 2025 Fram2 polar–space mission as a case study, it shows how state power, private capital, and emerging technologies are converging in the polar–space nexus in ways that favor Beijing’s “active defense” strategy and threaten core U.S. national security interests. The monograph concludes by arguing that traditional U.S. diplomatic, informational, military, and economic (DIME) tools are no longer sufficient on their own and proposes a new framework to help strategic leaders compete and deter more effectively across domains in ICE regions without allowing great-power rivalry with China to spiral into crisis or war.

by Frank Leith Jones; Focusing on the period from 2021 to 2024, this monograph argues the declassification and public disclosure of US intelligence in anticipation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—together with the subsequent sharing of intelligence with Ukraine during the conflict—have significant implications for national security policy making and military operations in future support of allies and partners. The monograph differs from previous studies in three ways. First, it examines public disclosure as a tool of strategic messaging in information warfare. Second, it serves as a model for intelligence sharing for both reassurance and operational support, with the latter highlighting the role of intelligence in war fighting that proved critical in enabling Ukraine’s combat operations. Lastly, the monograph provides insights into organizational adaptation through this major evolution in bilateral intelligence sharing. Methodologically, the analysis draws on historical materials, open-source products, official statements, and US laws and directives to assess US policy objectives in support of Ukraine through intelligence sharing. The study’s conclusions will assist US military leaders, policy practitioners, and intelligence professionals in calculating the advantages and disadvantages of intelligence sharing in future contingencies in which trade-offs between disclosure or sharing and risk, as well as between cooperation and constraint, are essential to decision making. ©2026 Frank Leith Jones

The Academic Year 2026–27 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of War’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 10 sections organized under the broad themes of 1) Regional Challenges and Opportunities and 2) Institutional Challenges. This assessment represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 105 command-sponsored questions from 47 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of War. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.

Joshua Arostegui, Editor; Conference papers from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; The US Army War College’s 2024 Carlisle Conference on the People’s Liberation Army was held on October 16 and 17 at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference featured keynote speakers from the US Department of Defense and the think-tank community, and panels focused on assessing the People’s Republic of China’s understanding of and capability to carry out a protracted war in the Indo-Pacific. The conference brought together over 100 participants from government, military, US Intelligence Community, academic, and think-tank organizations. The conference papers were authored by expert speakers and panelists and were designed to provide insight into key People’s Republic of China and People’s Liberation Army advances that could enable Chinese forces in a future protracted war against a US-led coalition. The papers were also crafted to enable in-depth seminar discussions following each panel, allowing the authors to garner feedback to improve their analyses.= The conference volume is organized into four sections based on the conference panels: understanding the People’s Republic of China’s views on historical and modern protracted wars; assessing the People’s Liberation Army’s operational endurance in the land, maritime, and air domains; analyzing China and the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to command and control a protracted war; and determining how Russia and North Korea could support the People’s Republic of China in a protracted war.

John A. Nagl, Project Director, and Michael T. Hackett, Chief of Staff; Integrated Research Project from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, School of Strategic Landpower, US Army War College Press; Following the 2024 A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force, which explored military lessons learned from the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War, this book examines the changing character of war as the second year of the war unfolded. This year’s authors explore the conflict from four different angles: information advantage (intelligence, information operations, and cyber); landpower operations (fires, maneuver, force protection, mission command, and mercenaries); multi-domain operations (air and maritime); and crosscutting themes (diplomacy, sustainment, and innovation and adaptation). The second year witnessed the innovative approaches to combat of the first year—drones, unmanned aerial systems, and electronic-warfare offensive and defensive capabilities—combined with entrenched warfare not seen at the current scale in Europe since World War I. The use of mercenary private military companies like the Wagner Group generated moments of high suspense (with a failed mutiny in July 2023) and led to changes in Russian force structure and tactics. Delays in continued allied support tested the resolve and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which nevertheless kept up the fight and held Russia back. Through it all, the conflict offers a compelling picture of the war of the future, along with lessons for the US Army Training and Doctrine Command to prepare the Joint Force to meet the challenges of the large-scale combat operations of tomorrow. ©2026 John A. Nagl. All rights reserved.

By Colonel Larry A. Wyatt, Dr. Michele Devlin, Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz. Weather-induced instability, such as the 2023–24 dzud (a slow-onset Mongolian winter disaster characterized by large-scale livestock mortality), creates schisms adversaries use to expand their soft power, Mongolia’s movement toward US adversaries could indirectly threaten US national security by heightening instability, increasing competition, and disrupting global economic systems. Conversely, through increased environmental diplomacy, investment, and resilience building—and by promoting democratic partnerships to bolster regional stability and showcase US leadership while mitigating adversarial exploitation of vulnerable regions—the United States can mitigate the impacts of ecological challenges on its national security interests.

Brennan Deveraux and Joshua Arostegui; Monograph from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; This monograph establishes a contextual baseline that serves as the framework for future comparisons of the US Army and the People’s Liberation Army Army. It examines differences in five key components of land warfare: the two nations’ landpower definitions, uses of land forces to build relationships, underlying warfare concepts, associated modernization efforts, and varying approaches to simulating land warfare in the region. In examining these components, the authors identify warfare intangibles that highlight analytical findings in a way that promotes future research. The existing scholarship comparing the two forces is often limited in scope, focusing on funding or comparing capabilities such as the number of specific weapons systems. This monograph differs from existing scholarship by providing a broad, in-depth comparison of critical landpower components. The analysis challenges long-held assumptions about US Army superiority and sets a foundation for future research. The authors rely heavily on primary sources and ample secondary documents translated directly from Chinese vernacular sources. This study’s conclusions challenge conventional thinking surrounding the People’s Liberation Army and will assist US military and policy practitioners in assessing the relative strengths and advantages the US military can grow or exploit.

Publication from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; Maintaining strategic advantage demands professional discourse from across the force. The Academic Year 2025–26 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment provides a framework for those aspiring to tackle the Department of Defense’s most pressing challenges. This year’s authors highlight trending challenges and identify potential tension points across 15 sections organized into four enduring themes. This survey of regional, domestic, and institutional challenges represents the collective expertise of the US Army War College. The narrative is supplemented by a tailored list of 100 command-sponsored questions from 43 different Army and Joint organizations from across the Department of Defense. Combined, the distinct yet complementary narrative and question list offer unique insights into the vital matters impacting defense organizations and provide aspiring researchers with a necessary starting point.

John R. Deni and Jeffrey D. Rathke, Editors; Collaborative study from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, American-German Institute, US Army War College Press; The essays in this volume analyze Germany’s Zeitenwende, a pivotal shift in security policy triggered by Russia’s reinvasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Key topics include national security strategy, defense policy, energy policy, industrial strategy, and international relations with Russia, China, the United States, NATO, and the EU. Copyright: Chapter 1 - ©2025 John R. Deni. All rights reserved; Chapter 2 - ©2025 Marina E. Henke. All rights reserved; Chapter 3 - ©2025 John R. Deni. All rights reserved; Chapter 4 - ©2025 Aylin Matlé. All rights reserved; Chapter 5 - ©2025 Sophia Besch. All rights reserved; Chapter 6 - ©2025 Tim Bosch. All rights reserved; Chapter 7 - ©2025 Angela E. Stent. All rights reserved; Chapter 8 - ©2025 Jeffrey D. Rathke and Theresa Luetkefend. All rights reserved; Chapter 9 - ©2025 May-Britt U. Stumbaum and Sharon de Cet. All rights reserved;