Regional Issues

Preventing Iraq from Slipping Back into Sectarian Chaos Dr W Andrew Terrill Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "It is at least possible, if not likely, that different choices on two key 2003 U.S. decisions would have allowed the United States to withdraw most of its troops from Iraq well before the present date. The two decisions that are now widely understood to have been disastrous mistakes are the dissolution of the Iraqi Army and the decision to pursue harsh punitive actions against vast numbers of former Ba’ath party members beyond the leadership of Saddam’s regime. Both decisions alienated Iraq’s Sunni Arabs and opened the door for a strong al-Qaeda presence in Iraq..."

Drug Trafficking, Violence, and the State in Mexico Dr Phil Williams Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Headlines and television commentaries about Mexico becoming a failed state as a result of drug-related violence have become a dime a dozen. Terms such as “criminal insurgency,” “narco-terrorism,” and narco-insurgency are all used to describe the widespread killings. The Joint Operating Environment Report of 2008 even suggested that Mexico, along with Pakistan, could suffer from a dramatic collapse of the state, with serious implications for U.S. national security."

Russia and Arms Control: Are There Opportunities for the Obama Administration? Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "As the Obama administration took office, Russo-American relations were generally acknowledged to be at an impasse. Arms control issues feature prominently in that conflicted agenda. Indeed, as of September 2008, the Bush administration was contemplating not just a break in arms talks but actual sanctions, and allowed the bilateral civil nuclear treaty with Russia to die in the Senate rather than go forward for confirmation. Russian spokesmen make clear their belief that American concessions on key elements of arms control issues like missile defenses in Europe are a touchstone for the relationship and a condition of any further progress towards genuine dialogue."

Kazakhstan's Defense Policy: An Assessment of the Trends Mr Roger N McDermott Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Roger N. McDermott argues that Kazakhstan’s armed forces, though subject to many structural changes, have not yet experienced systemic military reform. He assesses the achievements and setbacks of U.S. and NATO defense assistance to the country, while also showing that Kazakhstan remains deeply linked in close defense and security partnership with Russia. McDermott suggests greater sophistication and follow-up is needed from Western assistance programs to ensure that Kazakhstan successfully gains genuine military capabilities and the type of armed forces it needs within the region."

Russia, China, and the United States in Central Asia: Prospects for Great Power Competition and Cooperation in the Shadow of the Georgian Crisis Dr Elizabeth Wishnick Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "An overview of changing U.S. Central Asia policy over the past 5 years reveals an effort to respond to changing developments on the ground, most recently the Georgian crisis, but also the “color” revolutions, the Andijan events in Uzbekistan and its subsequent decision to end U.S. basing rights at Karshi Khanabad, Kazakhstan’s economic rise, and leadership change in Turkmenistan. At the same time, the worsening security situation in Afghanistan and growing insecurity about energy supplies has heightened U.S. interest in security and economic cooperation in Central Asia. "

After Iraq: The Search for a Sustainable National Security Strategy Dr Colin S Gray Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "What should be the U.S. national security strategy after Iraq? An answer cannot be given unless a logically and politically prior question is posed: “What should be the purpose and character of a sustainable U.S. national security policy after Iraq?” Thus to answer the first question, one has to identify both the policy that strategy must serve as well as the components of that strategy."

Regional Spillover Effects of the Iraq War Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential “spillover” from the Iraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill presents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help to fill this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq war that will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades. "

War without Borders: The Colombia-Ecuador Crisis of 2008 Dr Gabriel Marcella Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Unprotected borders are a serious threat to the security of a number of states around the globe. Indeed, the combination of weak states, ungoverned space, terrorism, and international criminal networks make a mockery of the Westphalian system of international order. Latin American countries are experiencing all of these maladies in varying degrees. The Andean region is under assault by a different kind of war that defies borders. In this context, Dr. Gabriel Marcella analyzes the lessons to be learned from the Colombian attack against the clandestine camp of the the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, which was located at an isolated area within Ecuador on March 1, 2008. This single incident and its aftermath had profound reverberations throughout the Hemisphere. "

Russia Challenges the Obama Administration Dr Stephen J Blank Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Moscow threw down the gauntlet to Barack Obama the day after he became president-elect. Russia threatens that unless the United States withdraws its 10 missile defense networks from Poland and the Czech Republic, it will install Iskander cruise missiles (which can be conventional or nuclear) in Kaliningrad on Poland’s borders and jam the radars in the Czech Republic. Moscow makes several assertions to justify its threat..."