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Strategic Research and Analysis Department Publication by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press The United States faces a complex and ever-changing global environment. The 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment is designed to guide the collective defense community to research and write about critical national security challenges to help the Army prepare for a wide range of potential conflicts and threats.

Publication by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press This list of strategic issues offers insight into the particularized matters impacting defense organizations. Senior leaders across the highest echelons of Army and Department of Defense organizations provided input. This list and the narrative found in SSI’s 2024 Annual Estimate of the Strategic Security Environment will help focus the research community on topics important to the Army.

Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.: Central Pacific Theater Army Commander for Admiral Chester W. Nimitz 1943–45; James D. Scudieri; Historical Study Monograph by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute; This monograph analyzes Lieutenant General Robert C. Richardson Jr.’s service as de facto theater Army commander to Admiral Chester W. Nimitz from August 1943 to June 1945. It focuses on the theater-strategic level when Richardson led US Army Forces in Central Pacific Area and US Army Forces, Pacific Ocean Areas. This study highlights the context of Richardson’s operating environment beginning with prewar plans, the realities of early wartime defeats, and the state of joint operating procedures. It assesses Richardson’s accomplishments in exercising Landpower in the Pacific, across the entire range of today’s Army war-fighting and Joint functions and discusses the implications of posturing for large-scale combat operations in competition, crisis, and conflict. These assessments are relevant to US Army Pacific today in its four current roles of Theater Joint Force Land Component Command, Combined Joint Task Force, Combined Joint Force Land Component Command, and Army Service Component Command.

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force John A. Nagl, Project Director Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge – 2023 PLA Conference – Updated and Expanded Editors: George R. Shatzer and Joshua M. Arostegui; Contributors: Christopher K. Colley, Lisa Curtis, Travis Dolney, Connor Donahue, James E. Fanell, Šumit Ganguly, Ron Gurantz, Paul Nantulya, Elizabeth A. Wishnick; Conference papers by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute Chapter 1 – ©2024 James E. Fanell. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 – ©2024 Lisa Curtis and Šumit Ganguly. All rights reserved. Chapter 3 – ©2024 Christopher K. Colley. All rights reserved. Chapter 5 – ©2024 Ron Gurantz. All rights reserved. The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations. The conference papers better defined the notion of the PLA as a pacing challenge as evidenced by PRC strategies and activities in various regions to build a much stronger appreciation of how PLA operations in these locations matter to each other and the whole of the PRC’s broader national strategy. The event also included presentations on Chinese military deterrence and potential justifications for a cross-Strait conflict following US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Specific topics included the PRC’s acceleration of military reforms and its extending reach; how the PRC can use various regional crises to justify military action against Taiwan; countering PRC military strength in Northeast Asia; and the PRC’s growing economic and security engagements with Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Russia, and Europe.

Emerging Technologies and Terrorism: An American Perspective A NATO COE-DAT Research Project in Collaboration with the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute Editors: Susan Sim, Eric Hartunian, and Paul J. Milas; Contributors: Darrin L. Frye, Sarah Lohmann, Paul J. Milas, Michael W. Parrott, Susan Sim, Steve S. Sin, Kristan J. Wheaton; Chapter 1: ©2024 Susan Sim. All rights reserved. Chapter 2: ©2024 Sarah Lohmann. All rights reserved. Chapter 5: ©2024 Steve S. Sin. All rights reserved. In a world where technology is rapidly advancing and available to the masses, companies and policymakers face a daunting reality—non-state actors are using innovation for sinister purposes. While artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems promise enhanced threat detection, terrorist groups are exploiting these tools for recruitment and attacks. The future is concerning as AI becomes more widespread and autonomous systems and augmented reality redefine society. A groundbreaking report is born from a collaboration between NATO COE-DAT and the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. This book unveils a grim forecast that terrorists are poised to exploit advances in artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, augmented reality, biotechnology, and nanotechnology. The line between reality and fiction blurs in the age of rapid technological evolution, urging governments, industries, and academia to unite in crafting ethical frameworks and regulations. As geopolitical tides shift, NATO stresses national responsibility in combating terrorism and advocating for collective strength against the looming specter of technology-driven threats. However, questions linger. Can regulatory frameworks keep pace with technological innovation? Will industry prioritize ethical considerations over profit margins?

International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022 Editors: Michael E. Lynch and Howard G. Coombs Conference Papers by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press Climate change has expanded commercial opportunities in the High North. The Russian attack on Ukraine has weakened the Arctic Council, thus setting the stage for great-power competition in the Arctic. This presents several dilemmas to the Arctic Nations, and especially the indigenous populations who live in the region.

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press The various deterrents that used to discourage Beijing from invading Taiwan have decayed, and at the same time China’s leaders face fewer restraints than ever before. Even so, if interlocking deterrents can be developed for the short, medium, and long terms, and peace reinvigorated, war may yet be avoided.

The Future Role of Strategic Landpower Dr. Gregory L. Cantwell, Major Justin M. Magula Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Center for Strategic Leadership "Recent Russian aggression in Ukraine has reenergized military strategists and senior leaders to evaluate the role of strategic Landpower. American leadership in the European theater has mobilized allies and partners to reconsider force postures for responding to possible aggression against NATO members. Although Russian revisionist activity remains a threat in Europe, the challenges in the Pacific for strategic Landpower must also be considered. At the same time, the homeland, the Arctic, climate change, and the results of new and emerging technology also challenge the application of strategic Landpower..."