Recent Articles

by team Pacific Warrior: LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication examines the impact of the Russo-Ukranian conflict on China’s military strategies, particularly concerning Taiwan. It highlights the increased risks of forced unification and the need for China to improve join training, doctrine, and modernization efforts. The report suggests that China is likely to draw lessons from Russia’s operational failures, focusing on enhancing its military capabilities while considering economic insulation from potential sanctions. Overall, the analysis provides insights into how the conflict might influence China’s approach to Taiwan, emphasizing strategic caution and calculated planning.

China, Europe and the Pandemic Recession: Beijing’s Investments and Transatlantic Security John R. Deni, Chris Alden, Erik Brattberg, Roger Cliff, Mark Duckenfield, R. Evan Ellis, Nicholas Nelson, Lauren Speranza Collaborative Study by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic has unleashed an immense shock to the global economy. In Europe, gross domestic product has fallen, and unemployment has risen. China might take advantage of the crisis—just as it did in the wake of the global financial crisis a decade ago. As part of its broader national security strategy, China might again use its sovereign wealth fund, government-affiliated companies, and nominally private Chinese firms to provide necessary liquidity in Europe. In doing so, Beijing could take advantage of Europe’s economic difficulties to obtain sensitive technologies, build soft power, and acquire militarily significant infrastructure."

by BioThreat Forge: COL Dan Mitchell, COL Laura Porter, LTC Matt Rasmussen, LTC Timothy Harloff, and LTC Justin De Armond; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In Biothreat Assessment 2035, the student team BioThreat Forge examines the evolving landscape of biotechnology and its potential threats to U.S. national security by 2035. The report identifies key trends, including the convergence of digital technology and biotechnology, which may enable non-state actors and adversarial nations to exploit biological capabilities, posing significant risks to public health, infrastructure, and military operations.

by LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Use of Landpower for Unification of Taiwan delves into China’s multifaceted strategy to unify Taiwan by 2049 through the lens of landpower. The document outlines three main strategies: unification by maneuver, leveraging geopolitical and economic influence to isolate Taiwan; unification by fires, preparing for potential military aggression; and unification by mistake, exploiting missteps by Taiwan or its allies. Each strategy reflects China’s long-term vision and military modernization efforts, emphasizing strategic patience and the use of time as a domain to achieve its objectives without immediate conflict.

by COL Troy Alexander, COL Greg Pavlichko, COL Anthony Pollio, LTC Patrick Hofmann, LTC Nicky Shadley; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the transformative potential of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations (DAOs) and trust-enabling technologies by 2037, emphasizing their role in enhancing dynamic information sharing within Mission Partner Environments (MPE) amidst trust asymmetries. It outlines critical advancements in areas such as fully homomorphic encryption, culturally sensitive mixed reality, and augmented intelligence, which collectively aim to revoluntionize military operations and inter-agency collaboration through improved data security, real-time communication, and decision-making capabilities.

Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this comprehensive analysis, a team of U.S. Army War College students examines China’s strategic ambitions to become the world’s dominant power by 2049. The report delves into China’s multifaceted approach, highlighting its focus on economic growth, regional hegemony, and global influence through technological advancements and strategic partnerships. Despite China’s progress, the report identifies significant challenges, including internal security issues, economic vulnerabilities, and geopolitical tensions, which could impede its path to global supremacy. The study underscores the implications for the United States and its allies, emphasizing the need for strategic preparedness in response to China’s evolving global strategy.

Contested Deployment Bert B. Tussing, John Eric Powell, Benjamin C. Leitzel With James L. Boling, Jonathan M. Boling, John J. Borek, Charles P. Brady, John Bretthorst, Stephen W. Ladd, Steven E. Landis, Edmund “Beau” Riely, Arthur C. Roscoe, Brian D. Wisniewski Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press, Center for Strategic Leadership "Early in academic year 2018, a group of US Army War College faculty and students came together in pursuit of an integrated research project devoted to an examination of contested deployment and the growing realization the US homeland can no longer be considered an inviolable zone in preparing for war. Expecting free movement of forces in mobilization, movement to ports of embarkation, and deployment against the nation’s adversaries is beneath reason. Two oceans and benevolent neighbors to the north and south can no longer be considered a significant buffer against internal and external enemies. Adversaries of the United States will seek to disrupt or disable the movement of its forces long before they can be placed in combat against foes overseas, and the nation must be prepared for this opposition."

Korean War Biological Warfare Allegations Against the United States: A Playbook for the Current Crisis in Ukraine Conrad C. Crane Information Paper by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The recent accusations from Russia about American preparedness to launch biological warfare from Ukraine have an historical precedent from the Korean War, and can provide some insights about the intent of the allegations. Intense negotiations to end the Korean War began in mid 1951 as the front stalemated. With major ground offensives no longer an option, each side developed a different approach to coerce desired political outcomes at the peace table. The main sticking point became repatriation of prisoners of war. For UN forces, their primary coercive tool became American airpower, in an extensive bombing campaign that eventually laid waste to most of North Korea."

Transitional Public Security: Establishing Security in the “Golden Hour” Dr. Karen Finkenbinder PKSOI Paper by US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "TPS is necessary to ensure that communities in post-conflict environments, or when law and order has broken down, are stabilized; thus, preventing bad actors from flourishing. It may well be that Department of Defense (DoD) is tasked to conduct TPS in accordance with DoD policy. A lot of work has been done to ensure that DoD is prepared to implement the policy and much more needs to be done. This is the story of where we are now and how we got there."