Regional Issues

Deterring Russia in the Gray Zone Michael C. McCarthy, Matthew A. Moyer, Brett H. Venable Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "One of the most complex challenges facing the United States and its allies today is how to deal with an increasingly bold and aggressive Russia. As evidenced by its invasion of Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, and unremitting influence operations against the West, Russia has engaged in an antagonistic foreign policy campaign that has both challenged and befuddled the United States and its allies. How should the United States respond? What measures can it take without igniting a major conflict? These are some of the difficult questions that the authors, active duty military officers, and national security fellows from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University address in this timely and prescient monograph..."

Conventional Deterrence and Landpower in Northeastern Europe Michael A. Hunzeker, Alexander Lanoszka Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The 2018 National Defense Strategy directs the Department of Defense (DoD) to prepare for a long-term strategic competition with other great powers. It minces no words in pointing to Russia’s repeated attempts at economically, diplomatically, and militarily coercing its neighbors. Toward this end, the DoD emphasizes the need to strengthen the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) by getting partners to increase their share of the defense burden and modernize their forces, making them more capable and responsive if and when crises occur."

Assessing the Collective Security Treaty Organization: Capabilities and Vulnerabilities Dr Richard Weitz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) consists of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. The CSTO’s membership has been stable, with the exception that Uzbekistan, which joined the organization in 2006, withdrew in 2012. The CSTO operates on the basis of the Collective Security Treaty (CST), a mutual defense pact signed in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, on May 15, 1992. The CSTO’s initial declared purpose was to counter external aggression against members and to harmonize their foreign policy stances."

Strategic Insights: ISIS in Libya: A Threat or a Dead-End? Dr Azeem Ibrahim Article by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Prior to 1912, Libya was a province within the Ottoman Empire and subdivided into two regions (Tripolitania in the west and Cyrenaica in the east) reflecting a long-standing ethnic and geographic division in the country. Although not administered separately, the large region reaching south into the Sahara had a different ethnic make-up compared to the rest of the country and was more connected to sub-Saharan Africa than to the Mediterranean. Ottoman control in the south was limited to a few towns, which gave them some oversight of the trade routes; but by the start of the 20th century, Ottoman authority was notional rather than effective in this region."

Friendly Force Dilemmas in Europe: Challenges Within and Among Intergovernmental Organizations and the Implications for the U.S. Army Jose Luis Calvo Albero, Jose De Meer Madrid, Kirk Gallinger, Klaus Klingenschmid, Angus McAfee, Stefano Messina, Markus Meyer, Michael Mineni, Darryl Rupp Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Over the last several years, European security has confronted major new challenges. Russia’s land grab in Ukraine and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS)-inspired transnational terrorism are two of the most obvious, but climate change, destabilizing migration, insufficient energy resources, a weakened European identity, and manipulation of the information space greatly complicate an already threatening security environment. "

Indian and Chinese Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment Dr R Evan Ellis Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph is a comparative assessment of the activities of the governments and companies of the Republic of India and of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Latin America and the Caribbean covering a 15-year period, from the beginning of the 21st century through 2016."

Strategic Landpower and a Resurgent Russia: An Operational Approach to Deterrence, A U.S. Army War College Integrated Research Project in Support of U.S. European Command and U.S. Army Europe LTC R Reed Anderson, COL Patrick J Ellis, LTC Antonio M Paz, LTC Kyle A Reed, LTC Lendy Renegar, LTC John T Vaughan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Over the past century, U.S. relations with Russia have evolved from ally to enemy to strategic partner to competitor. The political landscape and national interests of the Russian Federation have changed since the breakup of the Soviet Union. As a result, relations between Russia and the United States today are strained, largely because of Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Understanding Russia’s intentions has been challenging and difficult in the past for the United States. This monograph argues that Russia’s foreign policy is driven by four overarching factors: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approach to the world around him; the Kremlin’s desire for centralized control of the population; Russia’s desire to protect its homeland through an outside “buffer zone;” and an enduring distrust of the West. "

Mastering the Gray Zone: Understanding a Changing Era of Conflict Dr Michael J Mazarr Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The monograph emphasizes that many gray zone tools and techniques have been employed for centuries. But the analysis rightly contends that such approaches have renewed relevance, both because some new technologies have made them more effective than ever and because several major powers are making extensive use of gray zone campaigns."

The Hour of Truth: The Conflict in Ukraine–Implications for Europe’s Energy Security and the Lessons for the U.S. Army Mr Ivan Benovic, Dr Ariel Cohen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Natural gas disputes between Russia and Ukraine have occurred repeatedly since the breakup of the Soviet Union. However, the 2014-15 wave of these conflicts was also coupled with a Russian-supported war in eastern Ukraine. This warfare, together with Gazprom’s shortsighted attitude to its customers’ needs and concerns, has made Russia’s natural gas supplies unreliable in the eyes of the European Union (EU) members. Given the dependence of the Old Continent on outside sources of natural gas, the unreliable record of Russia as a supplier has boosted regional cooperation and incentivized the EU as a whole to seek solutions to its dangerous dependence..."