Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world’s attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt’s authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible."

Threat Posed by Mounting Vigilantism in Mexico Dr George W Grayson Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Until the 1980s, Mexico enjoyed relative freedom from violence. Ruthless drug cartels existed, but they usually abided by informal rules of the game hammered out between several capos and representatives of the dominant Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled the country in Tammany Hallfashion from 1929 until the 1990s. Relying on bribes or mordidas, the desperados pursued their illicit activities with the connivance of authorities, frequently through ad hoc pacts that might last days, weeks, or months. "

Puncturing the Counterinsurgency Myth: Britain and Irregular Warfare in the Past, Present, and Future Dr Andrew Mumford Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Britain’s numerous counterinsurgency campaigns in the post-World War II era have resulted in a generally accepted academic assessment that this volume of experience equates to competence in the realm of irregular warfare. However, the British response to the complexities of 21st century insurgencies, particularly in their decentralized and globally networked form, has threatened to expose this competency as a colonial-era myth. Quantity of counterinsurgency combat experience has not equated to outright quality."

China-Latin America Military Engagement: Good Will, Good Business, and Strategic Position Dr R Evan Ellis Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Over the past several years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has expanded its military ties with Latin America in multiple important ways. High-level trips by Latin American defense and security personnel to the PRC and visits by their Chinese counterparts have become commonplace. The volume and sophistication of Chinese arms sold to the region has increased. Officer exchange programs, institutional visits, and other lower-level ties have also expanded. Chinese military personnel have begun participating in operations in the region in a modest, yet symbolically important manner..."

The New Aztecs: Ritual and Restraint in Contemporary Western Military Operations Dr Zhivan Alach Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The idea that the military environment is constantly evolving, becoming more and more dangerous and technologically sophisticated, is a common one. In the past century, we have seen the emergence of total war, nuclear weapons, and bloody unconventional and asymmetric campaigns. We have used many of the offshoots of this evolutionary idea to guide our own setting of defense policy, seeing in the evolution a constant escalation, albeit one perhaps marred by occasional yet small oscillations. "

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union's Common Security and Defense Policy: Intersecting Trajectories Mr Sarwar A Kashmeri Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this study, Mr. Kashmeri argues his thesis that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has evolved from a confident, mission driven Alliance with a clear objective, to an organization that appears to be in disarray, still looking for a unifying mission 20 years after its reason for creation—the Soviet Union—ceased to exist. Mr. Kashmeri maintains that the action to enforce United Nations Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1073 against Libya is the latest in a series of demonstrations that highlight the disarray of the Alliance. He states that after weeks of preparation and increasingly optimistic statements about its readiness to enforce the UNSCR, Britain, France, and the United States chose to intervene in Libya alone."

The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications Dr Ariel Cohen, COL Robert E Hamilton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia launched the war against Georgia in August 2008 for highly valued strategic and geopolitical objectives, which included de facto annexation of Abkhazia, weakening or toppling the Mikheil Saakashvili regime, and preventing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement. The Russian politico-military elites had focused on Georgia since the days of the presidency of Eduard Shevardnadze, whom they blamed, together with Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR) Communist Party Central Committee Secretary Alexander Yakovlev, for the dissolution of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe and the dismantlement of the Soviet Union itself."

Military Modernization and the Russian Ground Forces Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph examines the recent process of organizational change in the Russian ground forces. It begins by charting the whole post-Soviet military reform debate. This debate was dominated, on the one hand, by those seeking to make the armed forces more professional, flexible, and adroit—and thus better suited to the security demands of a major 21st-century power—and, on the other hand, by senior military figures wedded to the concepts of mass and a conscript-based military. It was actually only after the war with Georgia in 2008, and when military opposition was weakened, that change within the ground forces could begin in earnest. New command tiers were established, divisions became brigades, and the idea of absorbing professional soldiers into the ground forces was refined. The problems of generating a suitable corps of non-commissioned officers, of training suitable officers, and of marrying equipment to strategic need are all issues covered here. This work concludes with the thought that even though the changes being introduced in the ground forces look dramatic, they cannot be implemented overnight. The road towards fundamental change where Russia’s ground forces are concerned will be quite a long one."

Resolving Insurgencies Dr Thomas R Mockaitis Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The study of counterinsurgency (COIN) has focused disproportionately on its operational and tactical aspects at the expense of larger strategic considerations. Foremost among these neglected considerations is the vexing problem of how insurgencies actually end. Most studies presume that insurgencies, like conventional wars, conclude with a clear-cut victory by one side or the other. Preoccupation with the anti-colonial insurgencies following World War II has reinforced this thinking. However, consideration of a broader selection of conflicts reveals that most did not end in such a clear, decisive manner. "