Strategic Issues

LTC Owen Adams, Mr. Reginald Shuford, COL Nathaniel Stone, LTC Nicole Washington, COL Dennis Weaver; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This report provides a strategic analysis of the future integration of human-machine teaming (HMT) in military operations. The document explores the technological, ethical, and operational implications of HMT, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize battlefield dynamics by enhancing decision-making, efficiency, and effectiveness. According to this report, by 2040, it is highly likely that HMT will be characterized by increased autonomy, advanced AI capabilities, and a shift towards more robotic and socially interactive systems, all while navigating the complex landscape of legal and ethical considerations. The report underscores the importance of trust, governance, and international cooperation in the successful deployment of HMT systems, highlighting the need for robust frameworks to manage the technological advancements and their societal impacts.

Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army's Professional Expert Knowledge C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, Brett A. Carey Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy..."

Strength and Wisdom in Space COL Benjamin Ogden Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Since its establishment in 1901, the US Army War College (USAWC) has addressed some of the most complex and pressing national security problems facing the United States. From analyzing the lessons of the Spanish-American War to studying emerging concepts from the World Wars, preparing students for the Cold War, and transforming senior military officers into strategic thinkers, the civilian and soldier scholars at the US Army War College have been uniquely adept at examining the changing character of warfare. In light of this rich legacy of study, the college’s motto of “Strength and Wisdom” perfectly encapsulates the spirit of the institution and its faculty. Today, the character of war includes resurgent peer competition across various national interests; thus, the US Army War College must redirect its focus toward shaping a strategic environment that cuts across different domains."

How Will the Structure of Military Organizations Evolve as Artificial Intelligence Becomes More Sophisticated? Professor Kristan Wheaton Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Deploying AI on the battlefield will force militaries to reimagine how they organize and operate. The Industrial Age principles of structure, authority, and control heavily influence modern military units. In the Industrial Age, factories needed managers to coordinate production and workers to perform individual tasks. But in the fast-paced, dynamic world of twenty-first-century warfare, commanders need soldiers who can think on their feet, team with machines, and adapt their tactics accordingly. A study by Deloitte found AI has the potential to reshape every business process within an enterprise. As a result of this transformation, AI will probably also have a transformative impact on the military."

Strategic Cyberspace Operations Guide Benjamin C. Leitzel, Gregory D. Hillebrand "The U.S. Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership, recently updated its Strategic Cyberspace Operations Guide. This publication provides a guide for U.S. Army War College students to understand cyberspace strategy, policy, and law as well as design, planning, and execution of cyberspace operations. It combines existing U.S. Government Unclassified and "Releasable to the Public" documents into a single, convenient guide..."

The Grand Strategy of Gertrude Bell: From the Arab Bureau to the Creation of Iraq. Dr Heather S. Gregg Monograph by US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "The remarkable life of early-twentieth-century British adventurer Gertrude Bell has been well documented through her biographies and numerous travel books. Bell’s role as a grand strategist for the British government in the Middle East during World War I and the postwar period, however, is surprisingly understudied. Investigating Gertrude Bell as both a military strategist and a grand strategist offers important insights into how Great Britain devised its military strategy in the Middle East during World War I—particularly, Britain’s efforts to work through saboteurs and secret societies to undermine the Ottoman Empire during the war and the country’s attempts to stabilize the region after the war through the creation of the modern state of Iraq..."

by Andrew Culbreath, John Hosey, Brennan Kemper, Michael Stevic, and Michael Wacker; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this authoritative report, Team Janus from the U.S. Army War College delves into the transformative technologies poised to redefine land warfare by 2045. Through rigorous analysis, the report identifies three pivotal concepts – Latent Variable Environment, Times as a Domain, and Symbiotic Warfare – that will shape military strategies amidst evolving geopolitical landscapes. These insights are drawn from extensive research, including expert interviews and open-source data, providing military professionals with a strategic framework to anticipate and counter emerging threats.

by team Pacific Warrior: LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication examines the impact of the Russo-Ukranian conflict on China’s military strategies, particularly concerning Taiwan. It highlights the increased risks of forced unification and the need for China to improve join training, doctrine, and modernization efforts. The report suggests that China is likely to draw lessons from Russia’s operational failures, focusing on enhancing its military capabilities while considering economic insulation from potential sanctions. Overall, the analysis provides insights into how the conflict might influence China’s approach to Taiwan, emphasizing strategic caution and calculated planning.

by BioThreat Forge: COL Dan Mitchell, COL Laura Porter, LTC Matt Rasmussen, LTC Timothy Harloff, and LTC Justin De Armond; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In Biothreat Assessment 2035, the student team BioThreat Forge examines the evolving landscape of biotechnology and its potential threats to U.S. national security by 2035. The report identifies key trends, including the convergence of digital technology and biotechnology, which may enable non-state actors and adversarial nations to exploit biological capabilities, posing significant risks to public health, infrastructure, and military operations.