Era of Persistent Conflict

LTC Joseph “Joe” Bell (USA, Aviation), COL John Cooper (USA, Human Resources), LTC Kristine “Kris” Hinds (USAR, Logistics), LtCol Erik Keim (USMC, Communications), LTC Michael “Neal” Miller (USAR, Logistics), Faculty Advisor: Dr. Kathleen Moore; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores how contemporary conflicts shape future warfare by integrating diverse actors and technologies. The report emphasizes the increasing role of technology in warfare, highlighting the integration of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) advancements, rapid technological implementation, and the involvement of private sectors. It predicts that by 2035, warfare will be characterized by unprecedented visibility, rapid technological advancements, and lower barriers to entry, making everyone a potential player and everything a target in a “conflict-in-a-sandbox” environment. This evolution necessitates adapting strategies and enhancing collaboration among military and non-military entities to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities effectively.

by LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Use of Landpower for Unification of Taiwan delves into China’s multifaceted strategy to unify Taiwan by 2049 through the lens of landpower. The document outlines three main strategies: unification by maneuver, leveraging geopolitical and economic influence to isolate Taiwan; unification by fires, preparing for potential military aggression; and unification by mistake, exploiting missteps by Taiwan or its allies. Each strategy reflects China’s long-term vision and military modernization efforts, emphasizing strategic patience and the use of time as a domain to achieve its objectives without immediate conflict.

The Dual-System Problem in Complex Conflicts Ms. Melissa Gregg, Dr. Robert D. Lamb Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Despite decades of research and experience in foreign conflicts and fragile environments, institutions in the United States and beyond are often unable to position themselves for success when called upon to intervene. This monograph contributes to the growing recognition that today’s conflicts are best understood as complex systems, characterized by greater levels of fragility, uncertainty, and intractability than conflicts of previous decades."

Impunity: Countering Illicit Power in War and Transition Michelle Hughes, Michael Miklaucic Guides and Handbooks by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Strategies that weaken illicit power structures and strengthen legitimate state authority are vital to national and international security. As Dr. Henry Kissinger observed, we may be “facing a period in which forces beyond the restraints of any order determine the future.” Because threats to security emanate from disorder in areas where governance and rule of law are weak, defeating terrorist, insurgent, and criminal organizations requires integrated efforts not only to attack enemy organizations, but also to strengthen institutions essential to sustainable security."

Preventing and Managing Conflict in an Unstable World Paul Sangrey, Karen Finkenbinder, PKSOI Interns: Jeremy Wallace, Sarah Cassel, Nasim Fekrat, Sarah Masciola, James Pagano, Danielle Humphrey, Charles Williams Glaser, Paul Sangrey, Rachel Baras, Michael Fishman, Benjamin Brandt, Zachary Ricchuiti, Michael Bruno, Jason Kring PKSOI Paper by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, US Army War College Press "The genesis for this anthology occurred almost two years ago. As the internship program grew, we realized that many of their projects were too good to be used only by us. We thought their ideas deserved a forum where others might also benefit from their observations. This anthology is not exhaustive. In fact, there were many more papers we would have liked to include but, alas, we had to make the cut somewhere. These papers were written between 2010 and 2012."

New Realities: Energy Security in the 2010s and Implications for the U.S. Military - Executive Summaries Dr John R Deni Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This compendium of executive summaries is based on presentations delivered at a conference by the same name that was organized by SSI, hosted by the Reserve Officers Association in Washington, DC, and funded through the generous support of the U.S. Army War College Foundation. The conference – free and open to the public – was held on 19-20 November 2013, and featured experts from the policymaking community, academia, think tanks, the private sector, and the military services. These individuals gathered together to address the rapidly changing global energy supply situation, the social, political, and economic challenges facing consumer states, and the subsequent implications for the United States generally and for the U.S. military specifically. "

U.S. Pacific Command Pacific Environmental Security Conference COL Douglas Charney, COL Philip D Jones, COL Cheryl A Ludwa, Mr Todd M Wheeler Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Environmental issues are widely recognized as contributing factors to instability and conflict. The Center for Strategic Leadership of the US Army War College has been known for its subject matter expertise in the area of environmental security for nearly two decades and in particular has had the opportunity to work with the Geographic Combatant Commands to embed environmental security in their engagement and security cooperation programs."

Peace & Stability Journal, Volume 1, Issue 4 Mister Robert C Browne Peace and Stability Journal by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Since the end of the Cold War, individual states and the international community have been challenged by an increasing instability resulting from numerous causes: natural disasters, internal conflicts, transnational terrorism and crime, and chronic and seemingly overwhelming societal problems. While not new in human history, the globalized environment of the 21st century make these issues more complex and interrelated. Broad access to information and global mobility informs populations of issues, internationalizes relative social progress, and empowers non-state actors. Informed populations demand more of their governments at home and abroad. Members of the greater international community respond to the plight of troubled states and their populations in various ways."

Resolving Ethical Challenges in an Era of Persistent Conflict COL Tony Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Colonel Tony Pfaff explores the ethical challenges facing the Army in an era of persistent conflict dominated by a variety of irregular threats. Pfaff argues that these challenges arise because irregular adversaries change the character of their war from imposing one’s will on the enemy to compelling the enemy to accept one’s interest. While this shift may seem subtle, Pfaff argues, it suggests a number of important practical and ethical implications for our way of war. Formerly, civilians were largely separable from warfighting, meaning that our strategies of annihilation and attrition were the most effective—and ethical—paths to victory. But now, when combating irregular threats, civilians are no longer separable from warfighting. Consequently, strategies of annihilation and attrition not only undermine a successful resolution of the conflict, but they are unethical."