Era of Persistent Conflict

LTC Joseph “Joe” Bell (USA, Aviation), COL John Cooper (USA, Human Resources), LTC Kristine “Kris” Hinds (USAR, Logistics), LtCol Erik Keim (USMC, Communications), LTC Michael “Neal” Miller (USAR, Logistics), Faculty Advisor: Dr. Kathleen Moore; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores how contemporary conflicts shape future warfare by integrating diverse actors and technologies. The report emphasizes the increasing role of technology in warfare, highlighting the integration of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) advancements, rapid technological implementation, and the involvement of private sectors. It predicts that by 2035, warfare will be characterized by unprecedented visibility, rapid technological advancements, and lower barriers to entry, making everyone a potential player and everything a target in a “conflict-in-a-sandbox” environment. This evolution necessitates adapting strategies and enhancing collaboration among military and non-military entities to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities effectively.

by LTC Lee Hemming (USMC), LTC Randy Paul Lefebvre, LTC Matthew "Kip" Marsh, COL John Cletus Paumier (USAR), Pratya "Lek" Siriwat; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Use of Landpower for Unification of Taiwan delves into China’s multifaceted strategy to unify Taiwan by 2049 through the lens of landpower. The document outlines three main strategies: unification by maneuver, leveraging geopolitical and economic influence to isolate Taiwan; unification by fires, preparing for potential military aggression; and unification by mistake, exploiting missteps by Taiwan or its allies. Each strategy reflects China’s long-term vision and military modernization efforts, emphasizing strategic patience and the use of time as a domain to achieve its objectives without immediate conflict.

The Dual-System Problem in Complex Conflicts Ms. Melissa Gregg, Dr. Robert D. Lamb Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Despite decades of research and experience in foreign conflicts and fragile environments, institutions in the United States and beyond are often unable to position themselves for success when called upon to intervene. This monograph contributes to the growing recognition that today’s conflicts are best understood as complex systems, characterized by greater levels of fragility, uncertainty, and intractability than conflicts of previous decades."

Peace & Stability Journal, Volume 1, Issue 4 Mister Robert C Browne Peace and Stability Journal by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Since the end of the Cold War, individual states and the international community have been challenged by an increasing instability resulting from numerous causes: natural disasters, internal conflicts, transnational terrorism and crime, and chronic and seemingly overwhelming societal problems. While not new in human history, the globalized environment of the 21st century make these issues more complex and interrelated. Broad access to information and global mobility informs populations of issues, internationalizes relative social progress, and empowers non-state actors. Informed populations demand more of their governments at home and abroad. Members of the greater international community respond to the plight of troubled states and their populations in various ways."

Resolving Ethical Challenges in an Era of Persistent Conflict COL Tony Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Colonel Tony Pfaff explores the ethical challenges facing the Army in an era of persistent conflict dominated by a variety of irregular threats. Pfaff argues that these challenges arise because irregular adversaries change the character of their war from imposing one’s will on the enemy to compelling the enemy to accept one’s interest. While this shift may seem subtle, Pfaff argues, it suggests a number of important practical and ethical implications for our way of war. Formerly, civilians were largely separable from warfighting, meaning that our strategies of annihilation and attrition were the most effective—and ethical—paths to victory. But now, when combating irregular threats, civilians are no longer separable from warfighting. Consequently, strategies of annihilation and attrition not only undermine a successful resolution of the conflict, but they are unethical."

Climate Change, Adaptation and Security in Central America and the Caribbean Dr Kent H Butts, Ms Marcela Ramirez Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Secretary of State Clinton began her term as the United States Secretary of State by calling for a U.S. foreign policy led by Diplomacy, Development and Defense. Success in applying this concept has been quickly realized at the regional level where cooperation between the Department of State (DOS), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Combatant Commands has been ongoing, particularly in the area of environmental security. United Nations data showing the link between resources and environmental issues and conflict are well known to regional economic and security organizations; but so too, is the potential for resource scarcity and environmental change to create opportunities for confidence building measures and multilateral cooperation that builds host nation capacities. Today, with its impact on water and food security and governmental legitimacy, climate change adaptation has emerged as a leading regional security issue and major concern to regional governments and their populations."

Enter the Era of Persistent Competition for Talent COL Carolyn F Kleiner Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The era of persistent conflict is forcing the U.S. Army to become more nimble and adaptable, driving changes in equipment and doctrine. Yet the systems required to manage its most critical asset—people—continue to operate in a Cold War paradigm with Industrial Era processes. The Army must take action to implement modern and creative human resource management systems if it hopes to maintain a high-quality force capable of fighting the wars of the future. As we live in an era of persistent conflict, we are also entering an era of persistent competition for talent."

The Army's Professional Military Ethic in an Era of Persistent Conflict Major Paul Oh, Dr Don M Snider, Major Kevin Toner Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In the series forward, General Casey challenges us to deeply study the richness of the Army professional Ethic formed over our 234 year history, the last 35 years of which comprised as an all-volunteer professional force. Dr. Snider and his fellow authors take on General Casey’s challenge and engage in vibrant and thoughtful dialog about our profession and our PME. They call us toward a deeper understanding of what it means to be a professional, to be part of a professional body, and our responsibilities to that body and to the nation it serves in continuing to advance our Ethic."

A Comprehensive Approach to Improving U.S. Security Force Assistance Efforts LTC Theresa Baginski, COL Brian J Clark, LTC Francis Donovan, Ms Karma Job, LTC John S Kolasheski, COL Richard A Lacquement Jr, COL Michael J McMahon, Brigadier Simon "Don" Roach, COL Sean P Swindell, COL Curt A Van De Walle Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Current operations, demands of persistent conflict, and enduring U.S. national security interests underscore the immediate and continuing need to improve U.S. Security Force Assistance (SFA) efforts. The frequency and importance of such activities throughout U.S. history demonstrate that the current requirements are not anomalies. Since September 11, 2001, the United States has been challenged to accomplish key national security goals due to a lack of capability and capacity to effectively advise, utilize, and partner with foreign security forces."