Strategic Issues

by COL Edward Kim, COL Cory Reiter, COL Charles Diggs, LTC Eric Giannaris, and LTC Robert Blome. The team conducted their research under the direction of Professor Samuel White (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This USAWC student team, Project Leo (AFRICOM Futures), prepared this report answers a strategic question posed by Gen Dagvin Anderson, the Commander of U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM): “What innovations will alter the balance of power across Africa by 2045?” The report finds that by 2045, the balance of power in Africa will likely depend not on any single innovation but on who can leverage converging innovations. The same innovations that might strengthen states will instead empower their rivals wherever institutional capacity is weak. Non-state actors are likely to exploit this convergence faster because they face fewer barriers to adoption. Five key findings frame the analysis: (1) non-state actors are building parallel governance, (2) service delivery, not warfare, decides outcomes, (3) state financial sovereignty is eroding from multiple directions, (4) China is building structural dependency, and (5) the outcome is still contested but the window is closing. The study concludes that the outcome is genuinely contested. But the window in which it remains is closing. The irreversibility threshold between 2028 and 2031 marks the point at which VEO governance roots, Chinese infrastructure lock-in, and African fiscal sovereignty erosion converge beyond the reach of feasible policy reversal.

by COL Joseph Kaminski, COL John Seitz, LTC Matthew Barwick, LTC Tanner Dunlap, LTC James Sye. The team conducted their research under the direction of Professor Matt Rasmussen (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This USAWC student team, Project Quantum Advantage), prepared this report answers a strategic question posed by Major General Rhett R. Cox, Deputy G2 on behalf of Lieutenant General Michelle A. Schmidt, Army G2,: “What are the likely quantum sensing technologies that will shape the strategic operating environment between the United States and the PRC by 2035?” By 2035, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) are likely to compete in a strategic environment in which quantum sensing is likely to change the character of war by reducing the effectiveness of concealment. Quantum sensing is likely to make previously undetectable signals and structures visible to both US and PRC collection enterprises. This change is likely to undermine stealth, subterranean concealment, and low-observable operations. Five key findings frame the analysis: (1) U.S. likely to maintain Quantum sensing lead through 2035, (2) Q-PNT, RYDAR, and Gravimetry likely fielded by 2035, (3) PRC dual-use Quantum sensing likely to evade standard indications and warnings by 2035, and (4) ecosystem integration like to decide Quantum advantage by 2035. The study concludes that Quantum advantage is likely to go to the actor that commits to promising technologies, avoids the implausible ones, and best integrates the complete quantum ecosystem across workforce, manufacturing, data fusion, and fielding pipelines.

by COL Thomas M. McInnis (USAR), LtCol Jordan Bathen (USMC), LTC Joshua Meador (USA), LTC Anthony Allen (USA), Mr. Lance G. Critchley (DAC), Mr. Kevin Boyce (Faculty Advisor, USAWC). This collective strategic research project examines the People’s Republic of China’s pursuit of decision advantage through military intelligentization by 2035. Developed by Futures Seminar Team Proxima Horizonte at the United States Army War College, the study synthesizes analysis from 276 open source materials and applies Intelligence Community Directive 203 estimative probability standards to assess the likelihood that China’s investments will translate into sustained battlefield advantage. The report finds that while the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is likely to achieve episodic decision advantage in discrete operational windows, structural constraints make sustained decision dominance over a peer adversary unlikely within the forecast horizon. Four key findings frame the analysis: (1) infrastructure built on unsecured foundations, (2) human and institutional constraints on intelligentization, (3) the emergence of automated active defense producing temporary advantages, and (4) biotechnical enhancement as a compensatory pathway. The study concludes that China is likely evolving beyond intelligentization toward a post intelligentization concept of warfare—termed cognitivization—that prioritizes manipulation of adversary perception, interpretation, and decision making rather than decisive technological overmatch.

John A. Nagl, Project Director, and Michael T. Hackett, Chief of Staff; Integrated Research Project from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, School of Strategic Landpower, US Army War College Press; Following the 2024 A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force, which explored military lessons learned from the first year of the Russia-Ukraine War, this book examines the changing character of war as the second year of the war unfolded. This year’s authors explore the conflict from four different angles: information advantage (intelligence, information operations, and cyber); landpower operations (fires, maneuver, force protection, mission command, and mercenaries); multi-domain operations (air and maritime); and crosscutting themes (diplomacy, sustainment, and innovation and adaptation). The second year witnessed the innovative approaches to combat of the first year—drones, unmanned aerial systems, and electronic-warfare offensive and defensive capabilities—combined with entrenched warfare not seen at the current scale in Europe since World War I. The use of mercenary private military companies like the Wagner Group generated moments of high suspense (with a failed mutiny in July 2023) and led to changes in Russian force structure and tactics. Delays in continued allied support tested the resolve and operational capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which nevertheless kept up the fight and held Russia back. Through it all, the conflict offers a compelling picture of the war of the future, along with lessons for the US Army Training and Doctrine Command to prepare the Joint Force to meet the challenges of the large-scale combat operations of tomorrow. ©2026 John A. Nagl. All rights reserved.

by Brennan Deveraux; Monograph from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; This monograph challenges the Department of War to reframe the conversation about humans’ involvement in lethal autonomous weapons systems by codifying a human-centric framework built on the employment pillars of certification, authority, restriction, and accountability. Although an ample body of literature discusses lethal autonomous weapon systems, this monograph takes a novel approach by proposing a theoretical framework and applying it to historical and hypothetical practical scenarios involving weapons with autonomous characteristics. In terms of methodology, the monograph relies heavily on primary sources, including UN documents and Department of War publications, which are augmented by secondary sources from experts in the field and creative speculation about the characteristics of future warfare. The study’s conclusions will help US military and policy practitioners manage and integrate lethal autonomous weapon systems. This study is designed to spark a necessary and likely uncomfortable conversation about when relying on lethal machines is appropriate. The monograph provides tangible recommendations to help shape future policy decisions about developing and employing lethal autonomous weapon systems.

2025 Homeland Defense Symposium Compendium Editors: Prof. Bert Tussing, Dr. George Schwartz, Dr. John ‘Charles’ Anderson. Conference Papers by: Dr. Erik Dahl, Dr. John Comiskey, Amy Lay, Ashley Reichert, Cary Underwood, Julianne Ortman; The United States Army War College’s 2025 Homeland Defense Symposium presented a unique opportunity for a whole-of-nation discussion and for information sharing on extant and emerging threats to the United States homeland. The research, presentations, key points, and discussions are consolidated in a compendium in this inaugural issue of For the Common Defense. Approximately 125 security professionals from a wide variety of backgrounds including the Joint Force, all levels of government, and civilian academia, attended in-person or virtually for three days. They participated in the symposium because they recognize that our homeland is once again in danger. Our potential adversaries are already making preparations to conduct operations in the continental U.S. in the event of a future large- scale combat operation. They will strive to disrupt infrastructure and supply chains, generate civil unrest, and create multiple dilemmas for elected leaders with the goal of keeping our military forces out of the warfight overseas.

The Collins Center Update is a quarterly summary of programs and activities at the Center for Strategic Leader (CSL) at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC). This issue features articles on Gaming Homeland Defense Contingencies by Major Andrew Starkey and Professor Bert Tussing; The Homeland Defense Defender’s Elective by Master Sergeant Ronald Bittner; Army War College Fellows Focus by Ms. Patricia Hayes, the 2025 National Security Simulation Exercise of Competition, Crisis, and Conflict by Mr. Brian Foster; and The National Security Seminar Homeland Defense Workshop by Dr. George Schwartz.

By Colonel Larry A. Wyatt, Dr. Michele Devlin, Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz. Weather-induced instability, such as the 2023–24 dzud (a slow-onset Mongolian winter disaster characterized by large-scale livestock mortality), creates schisms adversaries use to expand their soft power, Mongolia’s movement toward US adversaries could indirectly threaten US national security by heightening instability, increasing competition, and disrupting global economic systems. Conversely, through increased environmental diplomacy, investment, and resilience building—and by promoting democratic partnerships to bolster regional stability and showcase US leadership while mitigating adversarial exploitation of vulnerable regions—the United States can mitigate the impacts of ecological challenges on its national security interests.

Handbook by the School of Strategic Learning, US Army War College The purpose of this document is to assist United States Army War College students during the Military Strategy and Campaigning (MSC) course. It also serves to assist commanders, planners, and other staff officers in combatant commands (CCMD), joint task forces (JTF), and Service component commands. It supplements joint doctrine and contains elements of emerging doctrine as practiced globally by joint force commanders (JFCs). It portrays a way to apply draft doctrine awaiting signature, published doctrine, and emerging concepts, all at the higher levels of joint command, with a primary emphasis at the combatant command level.