Strategic Issues

by COL Adam S. Camarano, LtCol Sung G. Kim, LTC William Prince Jr., LTC Robert H. Topper Jr., LTC Christopher A. Wilson; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Divine Move offers a strategic analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to reunify with Taiwan, examining the conditions necessary for this goal within the broader context of China’s grand strategy for global dominance. The report assesses the likelihood of various strategies, including a fait accompli, blockade, or military invasion, and evaluates China’s capabilities in maritime, economic, technological, and cyber domains. It concludes that while military action is unlikely due to potential global disruptions, China is likely to pursue strategic conditions for reunification by leveraging its comprehensive national power.

by COL Leslie Carlson, LTC Fidel Arvelo, LTC Phillip Cain, LTC Samuel Meyer, and Lt Col Dorian Hatcher; Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive report, authored by the student team Techno-Warfare Group, examines the integration of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, advanced AI, and autonomous systems, forecasting their transformative impact on military strategy and the skillsets leaders will require to dominate in this new era of conflict.

by COL Nora Flott, COL Derek Baird, LTC(P) Tyler Standish, LTC(P) Brandon Van Orden, and LTC James Esquivel; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; An exploration of how the next generation of intelligence analysts, particularly those aged 18-22, are reshaping information consumption and communication through their reliance on digital platforms and AI technologies. With emphasis on the idea that while these digital natives are likely to enhance their critical thinking skills, their communication preferences will evolve towards more visual and interactive formats, significantly impacting the intelligence landscape of 2040.

by LTC Robert (Bob) McTighe, LTC Michael Mignano, COL John C. Haas, Jr., COL Robert “Bobby” Shadowens, and COL Keith Vanyo. Under the direction of Professor Kathleen Moore, Ph.D.; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the strategic challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the year 2035, focusing on emerging technologies, geopolitical shifts, and military innovations. This insightful analysis offers a comprehensive framework for policymakers and military leaders to navigate the complexities of future warfare and maintain national security.

LTC Owen Adams, Mr. Reginald Shuford, COL Nathaniel Stone, LTC Nicole Washington, COL Dennis Weaver; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This report provides a strategic analysis of the future integration of human-machine teaming (HMT) in military operations. The document explores the technological, ethical, and operational implications of HMT, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize battlefield dynamics by enhancing decision-making, efficiency, and effectiveness. According to this report, by 2040, it is highly likely that HMT will be characterized by increased autonomy, advanced AI capabilities, and a shift towards more robotic and socially interactive systems, all while navigating the complex landscape of legal and ethical considerations. The report underscores the importance of trust, governance, and international cooperation in the successful deployment of HMT systems, highlighting the need for robust frameworks to manage the technological advancements and their societal impacts.

Collins Center Update, Volume 23, Issue 1 Michele Devlin, Patricia Hayes, John Borek, Jessie Faller-Parrett, Mark Haseman, COL Chad Jagmin, Mr. Mark Leno Collins Center Update by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership

Trusting AI: Integrating Artificial Intelligence into the Army's Professional Expert Knowledge C. Anthony Pfaff, Christopher J. Lowrance, Bre M. Washburn, Brett A. Carey Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "Integrating artificially intelligent technologies for military purposes poses a special challenge. In previous arms races, such as the race to atomic bomb technology during World War II, expertise resided within the Department of Defense. But in the artificial intelligence (AI) arms race, expertise dwells mostly within industry and academia. Also, unlike the development of the bomb, effective employment of AI technology cannot be relegated to a few specialists; almost everyone will have to develop some level of AI and data literacy..."

Strength and Wisdom in Space COL Benjamin Ogden Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Since its establishment in 1901, the US Army War College (USAWC) has addressed some of the most complex and pressing national security problems facing the United States. From analyzing the lessons of the Spanish-American War to studying emerging concepts from the World Wars, preparing students for the Cold War, and transforming senior military officers into strategic thinkers, the civilian and soldier scholars at the US Army War College have been uniquely adept at examining the changing character of warfare. In light of this rich legacy of study, the college’s motto of “Strength and Wisdom” perfectly encapsulates the spirit of the institution and its faculty. Today, the character of war includes resurgent peer competition across various national interests; thus, the US Army War College must redirect its focus toward shaping a strategic environment that cuts across different domains."

How Will the Structure of Military Organizations Evolve as Artificial Intelligence Becomes More Sophisticated? Professor Kristan Wheaton Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Deploying AI on the battlefield will force militaries to reimagine how they organize and operate. The Industrial Age principles of structure, authority, and control heavily influence modern military units. In the Industrial Age, factories needed managers to coordinate production and workers to perform individual tasks. But in the fast-paced, dynamic world of twenty-first-century warfare, commanders need soldiers who can think on their feet, team with machines, and adapt their tactics accordingly. A study by Deloitte found AI has the potential to reshape every business process within an enterprise. As a result of this transformation, AI will probably also have a transformative impact on the military."