The Latest Issue: Autumn 2026
From the Editor in Chief
C. Anthony Pfaff
Welcome to the Autumn 2026 issue of Parameters, which consists of an In Focus special commentary, three forums (Artificial Intelligence, Russia-Ukraine War, and Defense Management) and the Strategic Competition Corner.
The full PDF of this issue can be found here.
Features
In Focus
From Reliability to Fit: Trust, Adaptation, and Distributed Cognition in AI-Enabled Mission Command
C. Anthony Pfaff
This special commentary argues that military artificial intelligence integration must pivot from model reliability to a “cognitive fit” within human-machine teams to ensure decision advantage under uncertainty. It advances beyond traditional artificial intelligence metrics by focusing on dynamic operational adaptation, and systemic resilience. The research employs an eco-cognitive framework, synthesizing John Boyd’s evolutionary theories with modern cognitive science and risk management principles. This analysis offers policy and military practitioners a crucial blueprint for designing command structures that preserve human judgment and mitigate risk.
Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), cognitive fit, decision advantage, distributed cognition, human-machine integration, mission command
Artificial Intelligence
Can AI Pass the US Army War College?
Kevin M. Boyce, John A. Nagl, and Kristan J. Wheaton
©2026 Kevin M. Boyce, John A. Nagl, and Kristan J. Wheaton
The US Army War College oral comprehensive examination serves as the institution’s capstone, measuring its senior officers’ strategic thinking. In early 2026, three faculty panels applied that standard to four leading commercial artificial intelligence (AI) systems: ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok. Prompted without core curriculum materials, all four models passed. Unlike static benchmarks, the examination’s impromptu dialogue format revealed meaningful performance differences that were invisible in general-purpose evaluations, with one model performing at a statistically significant advantage. These findings challenge how the Department of War assesses commercial AI for strategic applications and point toward domain-specific, dialogue-based benchmarking as a more rigorous standard.
Keywords: military artificial intelligence, professional military education, AI benchmarking, oral comprehensive examination, strategic thinking
Constraint Breeds Lethality: Three Models of Military AI Adoption
Branko Ruzic
©2026 Branko Ruzic
This article argues that the United States faces an institutional, not technological, adaptation gap in military artificial intelligence (AI). Constraints drive adversaries toward optimization choices that generate greater operational lethality than abundance-driven Western procurement allows. Departing from algorithmic or budget-centric commentary, it compares three procurement architectures (compliance-optimized, battlefield-validated, and systematically extractive) and treats Ukraine as a distinct wartime adoption system rather than a fourth model. Using Russian ZALA Lancet loitering munition strike data, Chinese-language doctrine on dissipative warfare, and US and NATO acquisition documentation, the analysis offers acquisition executives and combatant commanders five reforms achievable within existing authorities.
Keywords: military AI, defense acquisition, autonomous systems, Ukraine, military-civil fusion
Russia-Ukraine War
Russia’s Attritional Theory of Victory in Ukraine
Tewfik Hamel
©2026 Tewfik Hamel
This article argues the Russia-Ukraine War has evolved from a failed decapitation attempt into a coercive strategy of attrition designed to exhaust Ukraine, fracture Western cohesion, and force political recognition of Russia’s claims to status and strategic depth. Unlike accounts that focus solely on battlefield adaptation, it links Moscow’s changing conduct to Russian strategic culture and official strategic discourse. Drawing on Russian strategic documents, official statements, elite Russian commentary, and Western military assessments, it offers practitioners a framework for denying Russia the political fruits of endurance.
Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, strategic culture, attrition, theory of victory
Innovation and Adaptation: Lessons from the Russia-Ukraine War, 2024
Stephan Bolton and John A. Nagl
The third year of the Russia-Ukraine War was marked by inconclusive counterattacks and minimal territorial gains despite a loss of life and materiel, mostly on the Russian side, greater than any witnessed in Europe since World War II. The most important lessons for US forces from this year of the war are the impact and promise of emerging, multi-use technology on war-fighting functions and domains. Perhaps most notably, each year of this war has further reinforced principles of mission command, either by their observance or omission.
Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, mission command, military innovation, adaptation
Defense Management
Maximize Your Returns: The Critical Need for Red-Team Capabilities at All Echelons of Command
Lex Oren Jr.
©2025 Lex Oren Jr.
This article argues that the US Army’s underuse of red teaming at echelons below flag-officer levels hinders effective decision making and operational adaptability. Unlike existing literature that primarily focuses on red teaming at higher command levels, this article emphasizes the need to integrate red-team capabilities at the division, brigade, and battalion levels. The methodology includes a comprehensive analysis of current Army doctrine, historical case studies, and interviews with military experts to assess the impact of red teaming on operational outcomes. The findings suggest that embedding professionally trained red-team members at lower echelons enhances critical thinking, identifies potential vulnerabilities, and improves overall mission success. This article offers actionable recommendations for policymakers and military practitioners to restructure training programs and resource allocation, strengthening the Army’s strategic and tactical effectiveness.
Keywords: red team, US Army, Joint planning, critical thinking, future wars
Transforming the US Army Reserve for Protracted War
Joshua Yarbrough
This article argues the US Army Reserve must be transformed from an operational to an adaptive reserve to meet the demands of protracted, high-intensity warfare. The author’s analysis focuses on how the Army Reserve’s current structure lacks the strategic depth, mobilization capacity, and training to sustain long-term conflict. Drawing on historical cases, contemporary conflicts, and official documents, this article blends strategic analysis with policy recommendations, offering practitioners actionable reforms relevant to the Army Transformation Initiative and future Joint Force readiness in large-scale combat operations.
Keywords: Army Transformation Initiative, reserve component, strategic depth, protracted war, mobilization
Intellectual Interoperability: Lessons from Afghanistan for Security Cooperation
Sae Schatz and Scott C. Buchanan
©2026 Sae Schatz and Scott C. Buchanan
This article argues that intellectual interoperability—the cognitive and conceptual alignment necessary for multinational partners to coordinate decision making effectively—is a critical, yet undervalued, dimension of security cooperation. While considerable scholarship already explores technical and procedural interoperability, this piece examines its human dimensions and demonstrates their significance through an evidence-based analysis of gaps observed in Afghanistan (2001–21). Drawing on policy documents, doctrine, scholarly literature, and one author’s firsthand experience as a Ministry of Defense adviser in Afghanistan, this article offers military and policy practitioners three actionable lessons for building security partnerships resilient enough to withstand strategic pressure.
Keywords: Afghanistan, interoperability, security cooperation, NATO, institutional capacity building
Strategic Competition Corner
Getting There First: Strategic Competition Requires a Proactive Mindset
Antulio J. Echevarria II
This Strategic Competition Corner analyzes a recent war game dealing with strategic competition in Africa over critical minerals. It argues US military and policy practitioners need to think more about ways to leverage crises to America’s advantage and to its competitors’ disadvantage.
Keywords: strategic competition, critical minerals, rare earth elements, preclusion, soft power
Review Essay
A Call to Action: Lessons from the War in Ukraine for Americans
Reviewed by Dr. John A. Nagl, General John J. Pershing Professor of Warfighting Studies, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College
©2026 John A. Nagl
Black Sea Battleground: The Road to Ukraine
Edited by Glen E. Howard
The Russian Invasion of Ukraine: February–December 2022: Destroying the Myth of Russian Invincibility
by John S. Harrel
Beyond Ukraine: Debating the Future of War
Edited by Tim Sweijs and Jeffrey H. Michaels
Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, post-Soviet geopolitics, counteroffensives, hybrid warfare, electronic warfare, strategic studies
Strategy
The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History
by Odd Arne Westad
Reviewed by Dr. Jadwiga Biskupska, Harold K. Johnson Chair of Military History, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College
©2026 Jadwiga Biskupska
Keywords: strategy, history, United States, China, World War I, risk
Tanker War in the Gulf: Operation Earnest Will, Diplomacy and Seapower in Practice
by Tom Duffy
Reviewed by Colonel Richard D. Butler (US Army, retired), director, Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Joint Staff
Keywords: maritime diplomacy, Operation Earnest Will, strategy and operational art
Covert Action: National Approaches to Unacknowledged Intervention
Edited by Magda Long, Rory Cormac, Genevieve Lester, Mark Stout, and Damien Van Puyvelde
Reviewed by Professor Michael Elieson, General Walter Bedell Smith Chair of National Intelligence Studies, Department of National Security and Strategy, US Army War College
©2026 Michael Elieson
Keywords: covert action, intelligence, espionage, national security, statecraft
Security in 21st Century Europe, Third Edition
by Andrew Cottey
Reviewed by Dr. Ionut Popescu, associate professor of political science, Texas State University
©2026 Ionut Popescu
Keywords: NATO, terrorism, nuclear proliferation, cybersecurity, disinformation
Multidomain Operations: The Pursuit of Battlefield Dominance in the 21st Century
Edited by Amos Fox and Franz-Stefan Gady
Reviewed by Colonel Chase Metcalf, director of campaign planning, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College
Keywords: dominance, brigade combat team, warfare, US military, international
International Relations
Nostalgic Virility as a Cause of War: How Leaders of Great Powers Cope with Status Decline
by Matthieu Grandpierron
Reviewed by Dr. Christine C. Cook (colonel, US Army Reserve, retired), adjunct professor, US Naval War College
©2026 Christine C. Cook
Keywords: Russia-Ukraine War, intervention, diversionary theory of war, nostalgia
The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World
by Hal Brands
Reviewed by Dr. John Erickson, senior engineer, Axiom Technologies, and Dr. John A. Nagl, General John J. Pershing Professor of Warfighting Studies, Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations, US Army War College
©2026 John Erickson and John A. Nagl
Keywords: geopolitics, Eurasia, global conflict, Cold War, hot war