Past Publications

Why the Teachers? Dr Douglas J Macdonald Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Students of counterinsurgency warfare long have realized that its very nature leads the forces of order into some unusual places and subjects. In the declassified documents from the Vietnam era in the Kennedy Administration, there is a hilarious—because it was deadly serious—conversation between the President and his aides on whether to maintain a condensed milk program in South Vietnam or to cut it off to put pressure on the Vietnamese government for military and political reform."

A Hundred Osamas: Islamist Threats and the Future of Counterinsurgency Dr Sherifa D Zuhur Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The future of the Global War on Terror is now, and may continue indefinitely to be, a key concern for U.S. military and policymakers. Islamist terror has not arisen from a vacuum, but has evolved over decades and requires more calibrated coordination and a different type of strategic planning than other types of conflicts. The author of this monograph, Dr. Sherifa Zuhur, examines the intensity and diversification of extremist efforts and outlines their “new jihad” and its relationship to the regeneration of extremist leadership. She reviews “lessons learned” with regard to Islamist extremist tactics, recruitment, and their relationship to a broader Islamic awakening which must be factored into the U.S. desire for democratization of the Middle East and the broader Islamic world. "

Going to War With the Allies You Have: Allies, Counterinsurgency, and the War on Terrorism Dr Daniel Byman Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Daniel Byman reviews the problems common to the security forces of local allies that have fought or may soon fight insurgencies linked to al-Qa’ida. He argues that these problems stem from deep structural weaknesses, such as the regime’s perceived illegitimacy, poor civil-military relations, an undeveloped economy, and discriminatory societies. Together, they greatly inhibit the allied armed forces’ effectiveness in fighting the insurgents. Various U.S. programs designed to work with allied security forces, at best, can reduce some of these issues. To be effective, any program to assist allied counterinsurgency forces should factor in the allies’ weaknesses."

The Danger of Seeking Permanent U.S. Military Bases in Iraq Dr W Andrew Terrill Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In a June 25, 2005, address to the nation, President George W. Bush stated, “We will stay in Iraq as long as we are needed—and not a day longer.” This statement may initially appear unremarkable, but it is nevertheless an important and valuable assertion of policy that can be usefully applied to the concept of long-term basing rights in Iraq."

Fourth-Generation War and Other Myths Dr Antulio J Echevarria II Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In an era of broad and perhaps profound change, new theories and concepts are to be welcomed rather than shunned. However, before they are fully embraced, they need to be tested rigorously, for the cost of implementing a false theory and developing operational and strategic concepts around it can be greater than remaining wedded to an older, but sounder one. The theory of Fourth Generation War (4GW) is a perfect example. Were we to embrace this theory, a loose collection of ideas that does not hold up to close scrutiny, the price we might pay in a future conflict could be high indeed."

Coup D'Oeil: Strategic Intuition in Army Planning Dr William Duggan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In our military professions, formal analytical methods co-exist with intuitive decisionmaking by leaders in action. For the most part, there is no harm done. But many officers can recount times when they knew they should have “gone with their gut,” but followed instead the results of their analytical methods. The gap between these two forms of decisionmaking perhaps has grown wider in recent times, especially in Iraq, where adaptive leadership seems to have overshadowed formal methods of planning. Departing from formal methods increasingly seems to be the mark of an effective commander, as we learn from Dr. Leonard Wong’s recent Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) report, Developing Adaptive Leaders: The Crucible Experience of Operation Iraqi Freedom (July 2004)."

Getting Ready for a Nuclear-Ready Iran Mr Patrick Clawson, Mr Henry D Sokolski Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Little more than a year ago, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC) completed its initial analysis of Iran’s nuclear program, Checking Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions. Since then, Tehran’s nuclear activities and public diplomacy have only affirmed what this analysis first suggested: Iran is not about to give up its effort to make nuclear fuel and, thereby, come within days of acquiring a nuclear bomb. Iran’s continued pursuit of uranium enrichment and plutonium recycling puts a premium on asking what a more confident nuclear-ready Iran might confront us with and what we might do now to hedge against these threats."

The PLA Shapes the Future Security Environment Mr Andy Gudgel Colloquium Brief by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, with The Heritage Foundation "Over 50 experts on China and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) gathered at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, from September 23-25, to attend the 2005 PLA Conference, “The PLA Shapes the Future Security Environment,” cosponsored by the Heritage Foundation and the U.S. Army War College. The colloquium considered how the PLA shapes the global security environment."

Chinese National Security: Decisionmaking Under Stress Dr Andrew Scobell, Dr Larry M Wortzel Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "If there is one constant in expert analyses of the history of modern China, it is the characterization of a country perpetually in the throes of crises. And in nearly all crises, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has played an instrumental role. While China at the mid-point of the 21st century’s first decade is arguably the most secure and stable it has been in more than a century, crises continue to emerge with apparent frequency. Consequently, the study of China’s behavior in conditions of tension and stress, and particularly how the PLA is a factor in that behavior, is of considerable importance to policymakers and analysts around the world."