Past Publications

North Korea's Strategic Intentions Dr Andrew Scobell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "North Korea poses a key challenge to the global community of states. Sometimes viewed as primarily a nuclear or proliferation challenge, Pyongyang actually presents the United States and other countries with multiple problems. As the 2005 National Defense Strategy of the United States notes, these challenges include “traditional, irregular, and catastrophic.” While each dimension of these threat capabilities are fairly clear and, with the exception of the third, readily documented, North Korea’s intentions are a much more controversial subject upon which specialists reach widely disparate conclusions."

Who Stays and Who Goes: Army Enlisted Reserve and National Guard Retention Dr Clayton K S Chun Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The U.S. Army faces global challenges that have required it to use reserve components in a manner unseen since World War II and the Korean War. Today, there are many questions and concerns about the future of the Army Reserve and National Guard due to the unprecedented, continued mobilization of these reserve components and problems involving retention. Without adequate retention of personnel, valuable experience and unit readiness are at risk. The Army would have to spend its limited resources to replace many seasoned soldiers with junior personnel or use more contractors who may not be as effective or efficient. "

U.S. Defense Strategy After Saddam Dr Michael E O'Hanlon Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this defense strategy and budget monograph, Michael O’Hanlon argues that America’s large defense budget cannot be pared realistically in the years ahead. But given the extreme demands of the Iraq mission, particularly on the U.S. Army and Marine Corps, he suggests how reductions in various weapons modernization programs and other economies might free up enough funds to add at least 40,000 more ground troops to today’s military. O’Hanlon also addresses the important question of how the United States might encourage and help other countries to share more of the global military burden. Finally, he sketches other cost cutting measures such as privatization. These cost saving ideas all require serious consideration because of the enormous strain being placed on the size and cost of the U.S. ground forces."

Democratization Vs. Liberalization in the Arab World: Dilemmas and Challenges for U.S. Foreign Policy Dr Daniel Brumberg Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph looks at the political origins and dynamics of “liberalized autocracy” in the Arab world. Liberalized autocracy is a system of rule that allows for a measure of political openness and competition in the electoral, party, and press arenas, while ultimately ensuring that power rests in the hands of ruling regimes. This mix of control and openness has not only benefitted ruling elites, but oppositions as well. It gives them room to “let off steam,” to criticize regimes, and occasionally to affect public policy. Moreover, given the absence of consensus in many Arab states over national identity, liberalized autocracy has provided an umbrella by which competing groups―Islamists, secularists, Kurds, and Berbers―can achieve a measure of peaceful coexistence precisely because no group actually wields power. The United States largely has supported such hybrid systems, a fact of political life that has not changed dramatically under the Bush administration despite its rhetorical commitment to democracy. Whether the gap between words and deeds should or can be closed or narrowed is a complex question, since a sudden move from state managed liberalization to democracy could open the door to Islamist power."

Welcome Iran and North Korea to the Nuclear Club: You're Targeted LTC Raymond A Millen Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In one of the great ironies of the post-Cold War era, the United States, the most powerful nuclear state in the world, seems fear stricken by the possibility of Iran and North Korea obtaining nuclear weapons. Two facts frame the dilemma: both states are intent on becoming nuclear powers, and neither the European Union (EU) nor China is willing to help curb their ambitions. Clearly, nonproliferation is an important policy goal, but the United States should not view leakage as a catastrophe. Rather, the proper response is a declaratory policy of nuclear deterrence directed specifically at Iran and North Korea once they become nuclear powers."

U.S. National Security Implications of Chinese Involvement in Latin America Dr R Evan Ellis Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Evan Ellis seeks to do several things. He documents and examines the character of the new and increasing Chinese engagement in the Western Hemisphere. He then takes the analysis a step further by examining some of the potential dynamics of the Chinese engagement and its consequences for the long-term security interests of the United States. Dr. Ellis argues that China is both a significant competitor, and a potential partner of the United States in the region. Although he argues that China increasingly will vie with the United States for the hemisphere’s resources and political allegiances, he also notes that China’s growing dependence on its trade and investment in Latin America will give it security and stability interests that coincide with those of the United States."

The Strategic Implications of the Rise of Populism in Europe and South America Dr Steve C Ropp Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Populism has received very little attention from military planners. This is understandable. As a political phenomenon, it is viewed as somewhat removed from security concerns and hence as more legitimately within the purview of those members of the U.S. policy community who deal with political issues. Furthermore, as a dynamic, unstable, and ephemeral phenomenon within seemingly stable representative democracies, it is hard to “see” and hence to study. This makes trend extrapolation regarding the growth of populist movements much more difficult than for other future security challenges such as terrorism or unconventional war."

Budget Policy, Deficits, and Defense: A Fiscal Framework for Defense Planning Dr Dennis S Ippolito Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The transformation of the U.S. military is entering a critical stage. The Department of Defense is initiating the most far-reaching changes in its worldwide bases and deployments since the 1950s. Parallel efforts to consolidate domestic bases and defense facilities are likely as well, now that the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission has begun its work. And the Quadrennial Defense Review currently underway could have a profound impact on the size and shape of future forces."

Pseudo Operations and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Other Countries Dr Lawrence E Cline Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph examines the role of pseudo operations in several foreign counterinsurgency campaigns. Pseudo operations are those in which government forces disguised as guerrillas, normally along with guerrilla defectors, operate as teams to infiltrate insurgent areas. This technique has been used by the security forces of several other countries in their operations, and typically it has been very successful."