Past Publications

Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The future of Iraq is uncertain. The country is in a dangerous phase. The removal of a brutal dictatorship by coalition forces in April 2003 has given the Iraqi people hope for a new and better political system, where individuals do not have to live in continuing fear and uncertainty. Nevertheless, the Iraqi people must also address the difficult challenges of self-government for a diverse population, with major ethnic and sectarian groups that often maintain widely divergent agendas. If they fail to do this and an ethnic/sectarian war ensues, the consequences will be dire, not only for Iraq, but for the entire Middle Eastern region."

Stabilization and Post-Conflict Operations: The Role of the Military Dr Dallas D Owens Colloquium Brief by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Women in International Security, and Georgetown University "The military invariably conducts conflict and post-conflict operations with other agencies. These agencies must be prepared and resourced for their participation, including transition from or to serving as lead-agency for the operation."

The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U.S. Overseas Bases: A Framework for Analysis Mr Joel Wuthnow Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the United States will continue to utilize overseas military bases in the next decade, the acquisition and improvement of long-range missiles by several potential aggressors will pose new operational and strategic problems for U.S. forces. Several states will likely attain a credible capability to threaten U.S. bases within their respective regions, despite the sophistication of U.S. missile defenses. Strategically, there are uncertainties about whether the United States can deter some of these new missile-capable actors. Deterrence problems will create new risks to U.S. deployed forces: If deterrence fails, U.S. troops will be at a higher level of exposure. Alternately, missiles will grant states some leverage to dissuade the United States from actually using overseas forces, as well as a means to coerce host states into denying access to the United States. Though several factors will mitigate these concerns, the question remains: How reliable will alliance-derived “tripwires” and other deployments be in the overall U.S. strategy of engagement? Alterations in force structure, tailored to these threats, will likely be needed."

Insurgency in Iraq: An Historical Perspective Dr Ian FW Beckett Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the patterns of insurgency in the past by way of establishing how much the conflict in Iraq conforms to previous experience. In particular, the author compares and contrasts Iraq with previous Middle Eastern insurgencies such as those in Palestine, Aden, the Dhofar province of Oman, Algeria, and Lebanon. He suggests that there is much that can be learned from British, French, and Israeli experience."

It's Asia (Again) Dr Andrew Scobell Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "One of the persistent claims made as the 20th century came to a close was that Asia and the Pacific were increasingly significant to the United States and the world. Analysts and commentators proclaimed that we were entering a “Pacific Century” and pointed to the rising power of large states such as China and India. Japan has been a major economic power for decades but the growth rates experienced by China and more recently by India, and expanding trade flows suggest the world’s economic center of gravity is indeed shifting from the Atlantic to the Pacific."

The Paradox of Civil War Dr Stephen D Biddle Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The danger of civil war in Iraq has gotten much recent attention. Civil war would certainly be a disaster. Paradoxically, though, threatening overt civil war may be the only way out of our current predicament."

U.S.-Ukraine Military Relations and the Value of Interoperability Mr Leonid I Polyakov Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Ukraine has been a pivotal actor in Eurasia since its independence in 1991. Ukraine’s destiny is critical to the security of the entire post-Soviet zone, and both it and the United States always have acted on that assumption. The stated goal of Ukrainian defense policy long has been to integrate with Euro-Atlantic structures like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and this goal has been one of the chief objectives of the United States, as well. However, to move from rhetoric to implementation is particularly difficult where the defense reform of a post-Soviet state has been concerned, and Ukraine is no exception. Nevertheless, in the past few years Ukraine has begun to make remarkable progress towards its self-professed goal of defense integration with Western structures."

Deception 101--Primer on Deception Dr Joseph W Caddell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph reviews the basic concepts related to “deception.” The author, Dr. Joseph Caddell, defines terms, provides historical examples, and discusses problems associated with deception. His monograph provides a general overview, a “primer,” and is not directed at those who already possess a working knowledge of deception operations. Nevertheless, given the complex and ever-changing nature of deception in the political-military environment, it may serve as a useful reminder of the basic assumptions and methods concerning the subject."

Winning the War by Winning the Peace: Strategy for Conflict and Post-Conflict in the 21st Century COL Lloyd J Matthews Colloquium Report by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "During each of the last 15 years, the U.S. Army War College has sponsored a broad-based strategy conference that addresses a major security issue of current relevance to the United States, its allies, and, indeed, the entire world. Bringing together some 150 200 scholars, defense specialists, news media representatives, active and retired members of the military community, and uniformed and civilian faculty members of senior U.S. service colleges, the annual conferences are conceived to generate open, unfettered dialogue on the issue under discussion. Particular attention is paid to controversial or unresolved questions, always with the aim of surfacing practical answers based upon multiple perspectives and a dispassionate regard for reason and the attendant facts."