Past Publications

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future Dr Stephen J Blank Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute While the Cold War is long past, the importance of arms control in Russo-American relations and the related issue of nuclear weapons for Russia remain vital concerns. Indeed, without an appreciation of the multiple dimensions of the latter, progress in the former domain is inconceivable. With this in mind, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is very pleased to present the following essays, which were presented at a conference at the National Defense University on June 28, 2010.

Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-Carnegie Council conference connected with the Council’s U.S. Global Engagement Program. In this case, the engagement in question is with Russia, and this monograph specifically addressed the issues of how those aspects of the reset policy with Moscow that concern arms control and proliferation are proceeding. It duly addresses the question of whether further reductions in strategic offensive weapons are likely anytime soon, i.e., is it possible to go beyond the parameters in the recently signed and so-called New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) treaty with respect to reductions. Other critical issues involve the issues of missile defenses that Moscow vehemently opposes and the question of tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wishes to have Russia reduce. "

Forecasting Zero: U.S. Nuclear History and the Low Probability of Disarmament Mr Jonathan Pearl Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Over the past few years, a vigorous debate about the wisdom and mechanics of nuclear disarmament has emerged around the world, particularly in the United States. Washington’s current wave of support for disarmament was ignited unexpectedly in 2007 by a bipartisan group of national security experts. Calls for the elimination of nuclear weapons have existed for almost as long as the weapons themselves. But these developments, coupled with President Barack Obama’s clear support for disarmament and the successful ratification of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, have left American supporters of abolition feeling as if the scales may finally be weighted in favor of their goal—even though they acknowledge that it will not be easily achieved."

Chinese Lessons from Other Peoples' Wars Mr. Roy Kamphausen, Dr David Lai, Dr Andrew Scobell Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, and National Bureau of Asian Research

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world’s attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt’s authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible."

Mexico's "Narco-Refugees": The Looming Challenge for U.S. National Security Dr Paul Rexton Kan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since 2006, when Mexican president Felipe Calderon declared war on the drug cartels, there has been a rise in the number of Mexican nationals seeking political asylum in the United States to escape the ongoing drug cartel violence in their home country. Political asylum cases in general are claimed by those who are targeted for their political beliefs or ethnicity in countries that are repressive or failing. Mexico is neither. Nonetheless, if the health of the Mexican state declines because criminal violence continues, increases, or spreads, U.S. communities will feel an even greater burden on their systems of public safety and public health from “narco-refugees.” Given the ever-increasing brutality of the cartels, the question is whether and how the United States Government should begin to prepare for what could be a new wave of migrants coming from Mexico. "

The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Dr Richard J Krickus Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that the ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan will be a solid test of their reset in relations. That proposition is the thesis of this monograph. Many analysts in both countries would agree with this assessment, but a significant number of them believe a fruitful reset is implausible."

Natural Gas as an Instrument of Russian State Power Mr Alexander Ghaleb Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The slow re-emergence of Russia as a world power despite its weak military force is of critical significance for the strategic interests of the United States in Europe. Since the Cold War, Russia has been perceived as a broken nation that no longer represents a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance. This monograph emphasizes that Russia overcame this major vulnerability by developing the capacity to use unilateral economic sanctions in the form of gas pricing and gas disruptions against many European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states."

2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List Antulio J. Echevarria II Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) is published annually for the purpose of making students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are, or should be, of special importance to the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army. The list is a compilation of input from the faculty at the U.S. Army War College, as well as from civilian and military experts across the field of defense studies. The topics reflect ongoing as well as anticipated strategic concerns, each of which is revised as the changing security environment warrants. This year has seen immense political and social changes sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. It has also seen important strategic and tactical successes in the war against al Qaeda..."