Monographs

Afghanistan: Reconstituting a Collapsed State LTC Raymond A Millen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Lieutenant Colonel Raymond A. Millen examines warlordism as the principal impediment to Afghanistan’s revival and offers a shift in strategy that addresses the war of ideas, the counternarcotics initiative, and the incorporation of the Afghan National Army into the provincial reconstruction teams. As Lieutenant Colonel Millen observes, all the resources are in place; they simply need a shift in focus. Lieutenant Colonel Millen takes into account the historical, cultural, and economic factors that impede central authority and the reforms needed for modern states. His problem-solving approach is insightful, pragmatic, and innovative."

Transformation and Strategic Surprise Dr Colin S Gray Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Colin Gray takes a broad view of strategic surprise, and relates it to the current military transformation. He argues that the kind of strategic surprise to which the United States is most at risk and which is most damaging to our national security is the deep and pervasive connection between war and politics. Although America is usually superior at making war, it is far less superior in making peace out of war. Dr. Gray concludes that the current military transformation shows no plausible promise of helping to correct the long-standing U.S. weakness in the proper use of forces as an instrument of policy."

Saudi Arabia: Islamic Threat, Political Reform, and the Global War on Terror Dr Sherifa D Zuhur Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. foreign policy and the domestic concerns of Middle Eastern states are influencing the pursuit of the global war on terror in the Middle East. A close view of Saudi Arabia reveals the complex interaction of these forces. The U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia and the global war on terror are important challenges to the U.S. administration that have region-wide ramifications. Saudi Arabia has been facing down Islamist insurgency along with other challenges since September 11, 2001, and with even more urgency since May 2003. "

Street Gangs: The New Urban Insurgency Dr Max G Manwaring Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph explains the linkage of contemporary criminal street gangs (that is, the gang phenomenon or third generation gangs) to insurgency in terms of the instability it wreaks upon governments and the concomitant challenge to state sovereignty. Although differences between gangs and insurgents regarding motives and modes of operations exist, this linkage infers that gang phenomena are mutated forms of urban insurgency. In these terms, these “new” nonstate actors must eventually seize political power to guarantee the freedom of action and the commercial environment they want. The common denominator that can link the gang phenomenon to insurgency is that some third generation gangs’ and insurgents’ ultimate objective is to depose or control the governments of targeted countries."

The U.S.-India Relationship: Strategic Partnership or Complementary Interests? Dr Amit Gupta Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Can India and the United States create a strategic partnership that will further the security and foreign policy interests of both countries? This monograph argues that given the divergent worldviews of the two countries, it would be difficult to develop a strategic partnership. Further, the two countries differ about India’s nuclear status, with the United States not in favor of making India into a de jure nuclear weapons state. Indian analysts also remain concerned about the reliability of the United States as a supplier of high technology, and continued U.S. support to Pakistan is also seen as slowing down the positive growth of the relationship."

Strategic Implications of Intercommunal Warfare in Iraq Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The future of Iraq is uncertain. The country is in a dangerous phase. The removal of a brutal dictatorship by coalition forces in April 2003 has given the Iraqi people hope for a new and better political system, where individuals do not have to live in continuing fear and uncertainty. Nevertheless, the Iraqi people must also address the difficult challenges of self-government for a diverse population, with major ethnic and sectarian groups that often maintain widely divergent agendas. If they fail to do this and an ethnic/sectarian war ensues, the consequences will be dire, not only for Iraq, but for the entire Middle Eastern region."

The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U.S. Overseas Bases: A Framework for Analysis Mr Joel Wuthnow Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the United States will continue to utilize overseas military bases in the next decade, the acquisition and improvement of long-range missiles by several potential aggressors will pose new operational and strategic problems for U.S. forces. Several states will likely attain a credible capability to threaten U.S. bases within their respective regions, despite the sophistication of U.S. missile defenses. Strategically, there are uncertainties about whether the United States can deter some of these new missile-capable actors. Deterrence problems will create new risks to U.S. deployed forces: If deterrence fails, U.S. troops will be at a higher level of exposure. Alternately, missiles will grant states some leverage to dissuade the United States from actually using overseas forces, as well as a means to coerce host states into denying access to the United States. Though several factors will mitigate these concerns, the question remains: How reliable will alliance-derived “tripwires” and other deployments be in the overall U.S. strategy of engagement? Alterations in force structure, tailored to these threats, will likely be needed."

Insurgency in Iraq: An Historical Perspective Dr Ian FW Beckett Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the patterns of insurgency in the past by way of establishing how much the conflict in Iraq conforms to previous experience. In particular, the author compares and contrasts Iraq with previous Middle Eastern insurgencies such as those in Palestine, Aden, the Dhofar province of Oman, Algeria, and Lebanon. He suggests that there is much that can be learned from British, French, and Israeli experience."

Deception 101--Primer on Deception Dr Joseph W Caddell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph reviews the basic concepts related to “deception.” The author, Dr. Joseph Caddell, defines terms, provides historical examples, and discusses problems associated with deception. His monograph provides a general overview, a “primer,” and is not directed at those who already possess a working knowledge of deception operations. Nevertheless, given the complex and ever-changing nature of deception in the political-military environment, it may serve as a useful reminder of the basic assumptions and methods concerning the subject."