Strategic Effects of Conflict with Iraq: Post-Soviet States
Dr Stephen J Blank
Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute
"An American-led war with Iraq will affect the international state system profoundly, particularly the potentially volatile set of regions that comprise the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Because the war with Iraq is not directly related to prevailing security conditions in the FSU, we can make the following predictions with reasonable certainty. Some, if not all, currently existing strategic factors in the FSU will continue, whether or not the United States goes to war with Iraq, and whether or not the war is short or long, conventional or one that witnesses the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and other forms of unconventional warfare."