Monographs

Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Mr. Gregory Aftandilian examines why the Islamist-secularist divide in such Arab countries as Egypt and Tunisia has become so intense and polarizing and what can be done, from the perspective of U.S. policy, to mitigate such divisions and preserve U.S. interests and values. He demonstrates that having Islamist parties in dominant positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from secular elements because the latter see the Islamists as threatening their social freedoms, which leads to unrest. For countries beginning the transitory process from authoritarianism to democracy, Aftandilian recommends that the United States press for a broad governing coalition and a delay in holding elections, similar to what took place in Italy and France toward the end of World War II and which aided the moderate parties. Such practices would allow secular-liberal forces the opportunity to build their political parties and compete with Islamist parties."

Distinguishing Acts of War in Cyberspace: Assessment Criteria, Policy Considerations, and Response Implications Mr Jeffrey L Caton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Currently, there is no internationally accepted definition of when hostile actions in cyberspace are recognized as attacks, let alone acts of war. The goal of this monograph is to provide senior policymakers, decisionmakers, military leaders, and their respective staffs with essential background on this topic as well as to introduce an analytical framework for them to utilize according to their needs. The examination canvasses existing decisionmaking policies, structures, and influences to provide a holistic context for the assessment that extends beyond limits of the legal and technical communities. Its approach focuses on the synthesis and integration of material from existing experts, deferring the detailed analysis to the many published studies."

U.S. Policy and Strategy Toward Afghanistan after 2014 Dr Larry P Goodson, Prof Thomas H Johnson Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the United States continues to withdraw troops from and prepares to leave Afghanistan, Afghanistan faces multifaceted and significant challenges of governance, economy, security, and regional dynamics. These are all occurring within the context of the potential for an expanded civil war when international forces leave the country. It is time to refocus from the conflict itself and ask hard, but realistic, strategic and policy questions as to the future of Afghanistan, and what role, if any, the United States should play in shaping that future."

Turkey's New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States Dr Richard Weitz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Since the Cold War era, when the United States began heavily investing in Turkey’s military and defense operations, the United States and Turkey have enjoyed a fruitful and mutually beneficial relationship. Because of Turkey’s geographic location, political stability, and recent economic success, the country has served as a strategic ally in U.S. foreign policy. The Arab uprisings in particular have challenged the Turkish-U.S. partnership. For a country that was already struggling to balance its position as a regional power with the imperative of maintaining good relations with its Western allies, the increasing instability in the region has forced Ankara to rely more on the United States than it would prefer. Although the Syrian conflict has underscored to Turkey the value of its security ties with the United States, the war has also exposed deep differences between the two countries on fundamental issues. While presently partially buried, these differences could easily rise to the surface in coming years."

A New Type of Great Power Relationship between the United States and China: The Military Dimension Prof Geoffrey Till Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The relative rise of China is likely to lead a major shift in the world’s strategic architecture, which the United States will need to accommodate. For the outcome to be generally beneficial, China needs to be dissuaded from hegemonic aspirations and retained as a cooperative partner in the world system. This will require a range of potentially conflicting thrusts in U.S. policy. Since the Asia-Pacific Region is primarily a maritime theater, the U.S. Navy, Marines, and Air Force will need to play a leading role. The U.S. Army, nonetheless, will have a substantial supporting and facilitating role."

After the Spring: Reforming Arab Armies Dr Florence Gaub Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Arab Spring had a military dimension in both its targets—regimes with a military background—and its outcomes. Where the armed forces in their entirety or partially sided with the protesters regime change succeeded; where they did not, it failed. The somewhat renewed political role of Arab forces has therefore underlined not only their importance, but also the necessity for reform. This monograph focuses on the structural aspects of reform that would benefit the Arab Spring forces; it identifies seven features which need to be addressed when attempting Arab military reform in the countries affected by large-scale unrest in 2011. These are: an unclear mandate, over-politicization, lack of civilian oversight, a challenging ongoing security situation, limited resources, pockets of paramilitary activity, and, in parts, lack of an institutional perception of the need to reform. It looks at the reasons for these features and formulates possible solutions."

Strategic Implications of the Evolving Shanghai Cooperation Organization Dr Andrew Monaghan, Mr Henry Plater-Zyberk Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in regional politics, and the significance of the organization for U.S. interests, is widely misunderstood. The organization is emphatically not a military bloc, and yet engages in joint activities which resemble military cooperation to U.S. eyes. It is, in theory, open to new members; but at present is highly unlikely to accept any. Its rhetoric firmly opposes U.S. presence and activity on the territory of member states, and yet individual member states leverage basing agreements with the United States to their advantage..."

Russia and the Caspian Sea: Projecting Power or Competing for Influence? Dr Tracey German Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph examines Russia’s policy toward the Caspian Sea region as Moscow attempts to counterbalance growing American involvement within what it perceives to be its zone of privileged interest, focusing on the recent expansion of the Caspian Flotilla and the rationale behind it. Moscow has sought to counterbalance the growing involvement of other actors in the region, which has led to rising tension between Russia and its southern neighbors. The primary objectives of the research are to examine Russian perceptions of threat and security in the Caspian region and assess the implications for other actors. This monograph analyzes the drivers of the increasing competition for influence, focusing on developments within the energy sector, and assess the implications of Russia’s consolidation of its dominance for security and stability in the region. This issue is important because a clear understanding of Russian strategic thinking and threat perception in the Caspian Sea is vital in order to facilitate effective U.S. policy in the wider Caucasus and Central Asian region."

Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond Dr Mohammed El-Katiri Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party."