Defense Planning for National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour Dr Colin S Gray Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The purpose of this monograph is to explore and examine the challenge to America’s defense planners of needing to make purposeful and prudent choices in military preparation for the future. The problem for defense planning that is beyond resolution is the scientifically certain fact that we have no data from the future about the future. Moreover, this will always be a fact. No matter the scholarly discipline and tradition to which a defense planner owes or feels most allegiance, he or she needs to recognize and attempt to understand fully a personal and institutional condition of awesome ignorance of detail about the future."

Politics and Economics in Putin's Russia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The papers included here, except for the editor’s introduction, all come from the Strategic Studies Institute’s annual conference on Russia in May 2012. In one way or another, they all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair, at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U.S. interests."

U.S. Governmental Information Operations and Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool or User Failure? Implications for Future Conflict Dr Steve Tatham Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Through the prism of operations in Afghanistan, this monograph examines how the U.S. Government’s Strategic Communication (SC) and, in particular, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Information Operations (IO) and Military Information Support to Operations (MISO) programs, have contributed to U.S. strategic and foreign policy objectives. It will assess whether current practice is fit for purpose in possible future operations and will argue that the U.S. Government has for many years been encouraged by large contractors to approach communications objectives through techniques heavily influenced by advertising and marketing..."

Dangerous Ground: The Spratly Islands and U.S. Interests and Approaches LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret) Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The region around the Spratly Islands and the South China Sea is important to the economies of the surrounding states in terms of fish resources and the potential for natural gas and oil. This bonanza of riches spurs out-sized claims in the region that result in diplomatic and physical clashes. The large flow of maritime commerce around the Spratly Islands is also crucial to the economic well-being of the region and the world, and occupation of the islands dictates control of the surrounding sea’s maritime traffic, security, and economic exploitation. Their importance is seen in the 50 remote military garrisons on these islets by the claiming states, and the decades-long history of military and civilian enforcement clashes which increase the risk of conflict. "

Central Asia After 2014 Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers (the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a lesser degree) is becoming increasingly more visible as a key factor that will shape this region after the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. The papers collected here, presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) annual conference on Russia in 2012, go far to explain what the agenda for that rivalry is and how it is likely to influence regional trends after 2013. Therefore, these papers provide a vital set of insights into an increasingly critical area of international politics and security, especially as it is clear that the United States is reducing, but not totally withdrawing, its military establishment in Afghanistan and is seeking to consolidate long-term relationships with Central Asian states."

Building Better Armies: An Insider’s Account of Liberia Dr Sean McFate Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "We have long known that helping allies build better armies and police forces is a key to regional stability and the exit strategy for costly missions like Afghanistan in an “as they stand up, we stand down” approach. Yet the U.S. track record on this is unacceptably weak. The 2012 coup in Mali was staged by U.S. trained Malian soldiers. In Afghanistan, after years of training, the Pentagon assessed that only one of the Afghan National Army’s 23 brigades is able to operate independently. This does not augur well for U.S. troop withdrawal in 2014 or for the future of Afghanistan."

What Is Next for Mali? The Roots of Conflict and Challenges to Stability Dr Dona J Stewart Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In March 2012, the government of Mali, one of the most touted symbols of Africa’s democratic potential fell in a military-executed coup. At the same time, a 4-decade-old rebellion among Tuaregs seeking autonomy or independence reached new heights, fueled by weapons from Muammar Gadaffi’s fallen government and perhaps the belief that the Arab Spring could extend to northern Mali. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and their allies were quick to capitalize on the increasing chaos in a territory characterized by lack of government control and poverty and seized the major cities in the north. The imposition of a severe form of Islamic law and a growing food crisis sent the population fleeing south across Mali’s international borders. The French-led military intervention, Operation SERVAL, ousted the militants from the main cities in the north, but did not address the crisis’ underlying issues including the grievances that feed the Tuareg nationalist movement, the establishment of a civilian-led government in Mali, and the near- and long-term threats to food security. The eruption of this crisis also demands a critical look at the Sahel’s regional security framework, and the U.S. role in it. "

NATO Missile Defense and the European Phased Adaptive Approach: The Implications of Burden-Sharing and the Underappreciated Role of the U.S. Army Dr John R Deni, Mr Steven J Whitmore Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The 2010 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) decision to expand its ballistic missile defense program was somewhat surprising for several reasons, including lukewarm European public support for ballistic missile defense and tightening defense budgets on both sides of the Atlantic. Nevertheless, the Alliance has moved forward, with a significant expansion of its ballistic missile defense program, stating its intent to defend all European member state territory and populations, and declaring at the Chicago summit in 2012 that the Alliance had achieved an interim capability."

A Transatlantic Bargain for the 21st Century: The United States, Europe, and the Transatlantic Alliance Dr Ellen Hallams Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Dr. Ellen Hallams’s monograph explores the nature of the bargain that has framed relations between the United States and its NATO allies, and considers what the terms of a revised bargain might be. Debate over a revised bargain raises many important questions: What are the sources of Washington’s frustration with the Alliance? What are the implications of Washington’s increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific for Europe and NATO? What is the nature of Alliance burden sharing in the context of modern military operations? In what ways can America’s European allies and partners generate greater burden sharing? Dr. Hallams proposes that a truly strategic partnership between the United States, NATO, and the European Union should be at the heart of a revised bargain, one that casts aside Cold War constructs and approaches transatlantic relations with a new maturity and pragmatism."