Middle East & North Africa

The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq Dr Azeem Ibrahim Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other salafist-jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas its controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq-based Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) and there are indications of limits to al-Qaeda’s ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles."

SOLLIMS Sampler - Overcoming "Challenges & Spoilers" with "Unity & Resolve" Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Overcoming “challenges and spoilers” within conflict-affected nations is a demanding endeavor. Stability operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Philippines, and multiple nations of Africa have shown that bringing lasting peace/stability to troubled nations – plagued by warlords, extremists, and paramilitaries – is never easy. These have proven to be highly complex operations requiring an extensive understanding of the environment, an extensive understanding of the “challenges and spoilers” within the environment, and an extensive understanding of their connections to 3rd party nations/states/actors."

Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map? Mr Bill Park Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy. Tensions have since been compounded by the discovery of significant quantities of oil and gas in the KRG area, and Erbil’s pursuit of an energy policy independent of and in opposition to Baghdad. Turkey, uneasy with the increasingly sectarian and authoritarian flavor of the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, has since moved closer to the KRG, not least with respect to energy issues. This has deepened Turkish-Iraqi tensions still further. "

Post-2014 Afghanistan Wargame Analysis Dr Richard L Winslow War Game Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Afghanistan Futures Wargame conducted 14-15 January 2014 brought together specialists with expertise on Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and Pakistan, international relations and national security affairs from academia, government and private think-tanks to consider U.S. policy options for Afghanistan beyond 2014."

U.S. Governmental Information Operations and Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool or User Failure? Implications for Future Conflict Dr Steve Tatham Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Through the prism of operations in Afghanistan, this monograph examines how the U.S. Government’s Strategic Communication (SC) and, in particular, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Information Operations (IO) and Military Information Support to Operations (MISO) programs, have contributed to U.S. strategic and foreign policy objectives. It will assess whether current practice is fit for purpose in possible future operations and will argue that the U.S. Government has for many years been encouraged by large contractors to approach communications objectives through techniques heavily influenced by advertising and marketing..."

Reforming the Police in Post-Soviet States: Georgia and Kyrgyzstan Dr Erica Marat Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In most Soviet successor states, the police (militia) are among the least trusted government agencies. The police are frequently seen as representatives of the state who are allowed to persecute ordinary citizens, extort bribes, and protect the real criminals. This leads to cycles of mutual antagonism in which society does not expect the police to perform their function properly, and the police are unable to enforce state regulation of society. In the examples of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in this monograph, Dr. Erica Marat examines which domestic processes will likely fail and which have a chance to succeed in changing the post-Soviet police from a punitive institution into a more democratic entity. "

Central Asia After 2014 Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers (the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a lesser degree) is becoming increasingly more visible as a key factor that will shape this region after the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. The papers collected here, presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) annual conference on Russia in 2012, go far to explain what the agenda for that rivalry is and how it is likely to influence regional trends after 2013. Therefore, these papers provide a vital set of insights into an increasingly critical area of international politics and security, especially as it is clear that the United States is reducing, but not totally withdrawing, its military establishment in Afghanistan and is seeking to consolidate long-term relationships with Central Asian states."

State Collapse, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Somalia Dr J Peter Pham Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "...In this monograph, however, Dr. J. Peter Pham adopts a different approach. Beginning with a keen appreciation for the intricacies of Somali culture and history, he argues that the key is to understand political legitimacy among the Somali and then examines how both al-Shabaab and the different local polities that have emerged in Somalia have, to varying degrees, acquired it—as well as how successive Somali regimes have not. He also explores how weakness of, and divisions among, the insurgents can be better exploited by engaging and empowering alternative centers of legitimacy. What emerges from his analysis is a rather nuanced picture of the counterinsurgency strategy that, following several frustrating years, finally achieved its objectives, as well as several provocative suggestions."

SOLLIMS Sampler - Key Enablers for Peacekeeping & Stability Operations Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "In the course of recent / ongoing operations in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Liberia, Libya, and Sierra Leone, a number of key “enablers” have significantly contributed to mission accomplishment. In most cases, these “enablers” were developed / instituted to address a specific need or shortfall, and they rather quickly made a positive operational impact for the forces involved. Granted, no two operations are ever alike, however, the key “enablers” covered in this report are nonetheless offered as “food for thought” for planners and practitioners of future peacekeeping and stability operations."