Middle East & North Africa

War and Insurgency in the Western Sahara Geoffrey Jensen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "At a crucial crossroads between Africa and Europe, the Mediterranean and the Atlantic, and the “Arab World” and the West, Morocco has long had a special place in U.S. diplomacy and strategic planning. Since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, Morocco’s importance to the United States has only risen, and the more recent uncertainties of the Arab Spring and Islamist extremism in Africa have further increased the strategic value and operational relevance of the Moroccan-American alliance. Yet, one of the pillars of the legitimacy of the Moroccan monarchy, its claim to Western Sahara, remains a point of violent contention..."

Egypt's New Regime and the Future of the U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relationship Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph, completed in August 2012, analyzes the developments in Egypt from January 2011 to August 2012 and addresses the following questions that are pertinent to U.S. policymakers: How does the United States maintain good relations and preserve its strategic partnership with Egypt under Cairo’s new political leadership and the changing political environment in the country? How does it do so while adhering to American values such as supporting democracy even when those coming to power do not share U.S. strategic goals? The monograph first examines Egypt’s strategic importance for the United States by exploring Egypt’s role in the Arab-Israeli peace process, its geographical role (providing air and naval access) for U.S. military assets heading to the Persian Gulf, and joint training programs. With so much at stake in the Middle East, “losing” Egypt as a strategic ally would be a significant setback for the United States."

India's Changing Afghanistan Policy: Regional and Global Implications Dr Harsh V Pant Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since 2001, Afghanistan has allowed New Delhi an opportunity to underscore its role as a regional power. India has growing stakes in peace and stability in Afghanistan, and the 2011 India-Afghan strategic partnership agreement underlines India’s commitment to ensure that a positive momentum in Delhi-Kabul ties is maintained. This monograph examines the changing trajectory of Indian policy toward Afghanistan since 2001 and argues that New Delhi has been responding to a strategic environment shaped by other actors in the region. As the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization forces prepare to leave Afghanistan in 2014, India stands at a crossroads as it remains keen to preserve its interests in Afghanistan. This monograph underlines the ever-evolving Indian policy in Afghanistan by examining it in three phases before drawing out the implications of this change for the region and the United States. There has been a broader maturing of the U.S.-India defense ties, and Afghanistan is likely to be a beneficiary of this trend. Managing Pakistan and unravelling Islamabad’s encirclement complex should be the biggest priority for both Washington and New Delhi in the coming years if there is to be any hope of keeping Afghanistan a stable entity post-2014."

Beyond the Battlefield: Institutional Army Transformation Following Victory in Iraq LTC G Scott Taylor Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The U.S. Army goes to great lengths to capture lessons learned and preserve these lessons for current practitioners and future generations. Though the Army is one of the most self-critical organizations found in American society, a well-deserved reputation has also been earned for failing to inculcate those lessons by transforming the institutional Army. Change is achieved through a continuous cycle of adaptive innovation, experimentation, and experience. In Iraq, out of necessity while in contact with a dynamic enemy, the Army transformed on the battlefield with radical changes in doctrine, organization, training, and materiel, which significantly enabled battlefield success."

State-Building Challenges in a Post-Revolution Libya Dr Mohammed El-Katiri Monographs by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "A peaceful transition to a new form of government in Libya is of vital importance not only to the people of Libya, but to neighboring countries—and to security in the broad sense much farther afield. Yet, at the time of this writing, the new interim leadership remains fragile, with limited capacity and sovereignty, and the inability to enforce security is still a critical challenge. There is a risk of conditions being created that could lead to Libya becoming a fragile or indeed a failed state."

The Prospects for Security Sector Reform in Tunisia: A Year After the Revolution Dr Querine Hanlon Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Querine Hanlon of the National Defense University and the United States Institute of Peace finds that Tunisia is well poised to undertake serious security sector reform (SSR). SSR is a comprehensive tool for fixing the dysfunctional security sectors in fragile states emerging from conflict, developing capacities to meet the human security needs of their populations, or transitioning from authoritarian rule. In many fragile states, the security institutions are themselves a major source of insecurity. Dr. Hanlon argues that transforming the security sector into one that is democratically accountable and functions in accordance with the rule of law is an important step toward averting the recurrence of insecurity and conflict and preventing newly democratic or transitioning regimes from reverting to authoritarian rule."

Against All Odds: Relations between NATO and the MENA Region Dr Florence Gaub Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "While the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was founded in 1949 first and foremost to strengthen the transatlantic link in the wake of the Soviet threat, one of the immediate neighboring regions was left largely unnoticed for the Alliance’s first 4 decades. Although some of the Allies had recognized the importance of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, it was dealt with largely on a bilateral basis. Events such as the Suez crisis of 1956 and the wars of 1967 and 1973 did have an impact on NATO and its cohesion, overall its focus remained on the Central Front in Germany. This was where a Soviet attack would have likely occurred, and led to an Allied bias in geographic terms."

Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The presence of U.S. combat troops in Iraq has now come to an end, and the lessons of that conflict for the United States and other nations will be debated for some time to come. It is now widely understood that the post-invasion policy of de-Ba’athification, as practiced, had numerous unintended consequences that made building Iraqi civil society especially difficult following the U.S.-led invasion. The U.S. approach to this policy is often assessed as having underestimated both the dangers of increased sectarianism in Iraq and the need for strong efforts to manage ethnic-sectarian divisions. The Iraqi government’s approach to de-Ba’athification was, nevertheless, much more problematic due to its openly biased and sectarian nature. However well-intentioned, de-Ba’athification originally was as a concept, in practice it had a number of serious problems. These problems intensified and became more alarming as the de-Ba’athification process became increasingly dominated by the Iraqis and American oversight over that program gradually evaporated. At that time, it came to be viewed as an instrument of revenge and collective punishment by both the Iraqis that administered de-Ba’athification and those that were targeted by these policies. "

The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The following conclusions are drawn from this analysis: 1. There is an emerging post-unipolar world. Now the United States is not the only global center, as it was during the first years of the post-Cold War era. Nor do just two superpowers—the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics—now define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several centers of power. This provides the opportunity for small states such as Belarus to move from one center of power to another or to engage in a sort of geopolitical gamesmanship. 2. During the last 10 years or so, Belarus moved from Russia to the European Union (EU) and back. At the same time, it engaged in relationships with Iran and China. While relationships with Russia and the EU have not been stable, this is not the case with China and Iran. Here, Belarus has always maintained a good relationship, especially in the case of China. This is demonstrated by the increasing role of Asia in the geopolitical arrangements of the present, and will be even more so in the future."