Middle East & North Africa

Thinking about Nuclear Power in Post-Saddam Iraq Dr Norman Cigar Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph provides an overview and analysis of thinking in Iraq on the issue of nuclear power. Nuclear power has long held a special fascination for Iraq, and despite past controversies, this issue continues to draw the attention of numerous influential Iraqis in the post-Saddam era. Informed public opinion in Iraq today is clearly a more important factor for understanding the background of decisionmaking than it was during the Saddam era, so that this monograph addresses the views of all the sectors of Iraqi society likely to have an input into decisionmaking in this arena."

War Is War? -- The utility of cyberspace operations in the contemporary operational environment Dennis M Murphy Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) defines cyberspace operations as “the employment of cyber capabilities where the primary purpose is to achieve military objectives or effects in or through cyberspace.” Cyberspace emerged as a national-level concern through several recent events of geo-strategic significance. Estonian infrastructure was attacked in the spring of 2007, allegedly by Russian hackers. In August 2008, Russia again allegedly conducted cyber attacks, this time in a coordinated and synchronized kinetic and non-kinetic campaign against Georgia. It is plausible that such complex excursions may become the norm in future warfare among nation-states having the capabilities to conduct them."

Transnational Insurgencies and the Escalation of Regional Conflict: Lessons for Iraq and Afghanistan Dr Idean Salehyan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Idean Salehyan examines several recent transnational insurgencies and their implications for regional relations. While the majority of cases resulted in an escalation of conflict between neighbors, in some instances countries have been able to construct successful border security regimes. This monograph discusses these patterns of conflict and cooperation. Additionally, detailed analyses of the relations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, as well as India and its neighbors, are offered to shed light on positive and negative dynamics."

Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending? Dr Clayton K S Chun Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph explores the impact that oil revenue had on the national defense spending of five oil-exporting countries. Despite periods of falling oil revenues, these countries typically did not lower defense spending. In some cases, defense spending increased sharply, or the rate of decrease was much lower than the drop in oil revenues. This condition creates challenges for national security professionals. If nations face falling oil revenues and still have the will and ability to expand their military or security capabilities, then they might do so through the sacrifice of domestic spending or regional stability. Economic sanctions, worldwide recession, or falling oil demand may not stop these oil-exporting nations from purchasing weapons and creating large security forces. Although oil might have been a key to provide past or future earnings expectations to fund defense, perhaps there are other reasons why nations want relatively high defense spending levels despite lower oil revenue. The politics of oil and its impact on government control, regional threats, national interests, and other strategic factors may explain why these nations pursue defense spending despite falling oil revenue."

Something Brewing in Venezuela COL Phillip R Cuccia Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Addressing a regional diplomatic-military problem is made all the more complicated when the region is not at the forefront of U.S. global strategic interests. Such a region simply does not get the attention that it deserves. I fear that may be what is happening now with South America in general and Venezuela in particular."

Resetting the Reset Button: Realism About Russia Dr Stephen J Blank Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In Washington, there is a widely shared view that the United States needs Russian cooperation to stop Iranian and North Korean nuclear proliferation, particularly Iran’s. This view rests on the premise that the United States should take Russia “seriously,” and taking Russia seriously means accepting Russian demands for no missile defense in Europe and no NATO enlargement or further European integration of the countries of the former Soviet Union."

Pakistan's Nuclear Future: Reining in the Risk Mr Henry D Sokolski Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "With any attempt to assess security threats, there is a natural tendency to focus first on the worst. Consider the most recent appraisals of Pakistan’s nuclear program. Normally, the risk of war between Pakistan and India and possible nuclear escalation would be bad enough. Now, however, most American security experts are riveted on the frightening possibility of Pakistani nuclear weapons capabilities falling into the hands of terrorists intent on attacking the United States."

Migration and Border Security: The Military's Role Prof Bernard F Griffard, Prof Bert B Tussing Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "With the world’s population in constant motion, migration is an everyday reality. Much of this movement is voluntary, such as the surges at the end of World War II and following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Major natural disasters or fluctuations in the world’s economies also greatly influence human movement. In most circumstances, migration is initiated in search of a better life, perceived or real. This type of movement was recognized as a basic human right in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights."

A Case Study in Security Sector Reform: Learning from Security Sector Reform/Building in Afghanistan (October 2002-September 2003) Mr Jason C Howk PKSOI Paper by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, Strategic Studies Institute "This PKSOI Paper is designed to further the U.S. and other interested international governments’ understanding of how Security Sector Reform (SSR) was conducted in Afghanistan from 2002 to 2003. This was America’s first attempt at conducting formalized SSR, so it offers readers an opportunity to learn whom the United States saw as key actors in the process, what institutions were slated for reform, and how well the United States and its partners met the typical challenges of SSR."