Middle East & North Africa

The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East, especially the Gulf area, since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more dramatic. In most respects, Saudi Arabia is a regional status quo power, while Iran often seeks revolutionary change throughout the Gulf area and the wider Middle East with varying degrees of intensity. Saudi Arabia also has strong ties with Western nations, while Iran views the United States as its most dangerous enemy. Perhaps the most important difference between the two nations is that Saudi Arabia is a conservative Sunni Muslim Arab state, while Iran is a Shi’ite state with senior politicians who often view their country as the defender and natural leader of Shi’ites throughout the region. The rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has been reflected in the politics of a number of regional states where these two powers exercise influence."

Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the recent history of organizational change in the Russian airborne forces (VDV). In particular, it looks at how the VDV has changed since the end of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008. The VDV, a force much admired in the Russian news media and society, has, in fact, escaped fairly unscathed during the comprehensive reform of the Russian army more generally over the last few years. In large part this has been because of the personality of the current head of the VDV, Lieutenant General Vladimir Shamanov."

Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-Carnegie Council conference connected with the Council’s U.S. Global Engagement Program. In this case, the engagement in question is with Russia, and this monograph specifically addressed the issues of how those aspects of the reset policy with Moscow that concern arms control and proliferation are proceeding. It duly addresses the question of whether further reductions in strategic offensive weapons are likely anytime soon, i.e., is it possible to go beyond the parameters in the recently signed and so-called New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) treaty with respect to reductions. Other critical issues involve the issues of missile defenses that Moscow vehemently opposes and the question of tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wishes to have Russia reduce. "

The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Dr Richard J Krickus Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that the ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan will be a solid test of their reset in relations. That proposition is the thesis of this monograph. Many analysts in both countries would agree with this assessment, but a significant number of them believe a fruitful reset is implausible."

Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world’s attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt’s authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible."

Assessing the Strategic Environment: Developing Critical Thinking Skills at the Ethiopian Defense Command and Staff College Prof Bernard F Griffard Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "A government’s failure to understand the impact of global variables on the domestic environment can result in major destabilizing events. Emperor Tewodros II of Abyssinia (Ethiopia) learned this lesson the hard way. In 1862, after a snub by the British Government, the Emperor took the British Consul and other Europeans hostage to pressure the Crown to meet his request for equipment and training support. Being a somewhat impatient ruler, he also detained the British delegation sent to negotiate the initial hostages’ release. Because Britain’s ruling Liberal Party was reluctant to engage in “imperial adventures,” the hostages were still in loco Abyssinia into 1867."

Examining Military Governance as a Part of Professional Military Education Mr Brent C Bankus, Ms Lorelei E W Coplen, Prof James O Kievit Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "After the capture of Baghdad in 2003, the expectation was that an Iraqi entity would quickly step forward to begin to fill the role of government in the territory formerly ruled by Saddam Hussein. Instead, there was a power vacuum which the United States – and in particular the United States military – had to fill. Similarly, in Afghanistan, despite the relatively quick identification of Hamid Karzai as the “designated” national leader, it also became clear that the new national government lacked many of the essential capabilities required to actually implement good governance. Again, despite the clear preference of many of today’s military officers to have some other entity (whether of the U.S. government, the United Nations, or even non-government private contractors) be responsible for doing so, that responsibility initially fell largely, if not exclusively, on U.S. military commanders. Even though the U.S. military, especially the U.S. Army, has had a long history of military governance activities, many of those commanders felt unprepared and/or that it was 'not really my job.'"

The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications Dr Ariel Cohen, COL Robert E Hamilton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia launched the war against Georgia in August 2008 for highly valued strategic and geopolitical objectives, which included de facto annexation of Abkhazia, weakening or toppling the Mikheil Saakashvili regime, and preventing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement. The Russian politico-military elites had focused on Georgia since the days of the presidency of Eduard Shevardnadze, whom they blamed, together with Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR) Communist Party Central Committee Secretary Alexander Yakovlev, for the dissolution of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe and the dismantlement of the Soviet Union itself."

Rebuilding Armed Forces: Learning from Iraq and Lebanon Dr Florence Gaub Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since U.S. operations began in Iraq in 2003, the Iraqi armed forces have embarked on a huge transformation. In this groundbreaking monograph, Dr. Florence Gaub focuses on the structural and sociological aspects of rebuilding the Iraqi armed forces, which she observes and comments on through the lens of lessons learned from Lebanon’s experience of rebuilding its own armed forces in the late 20th century following civil war."