Recent Articles

Fighting Back: New Media and Military Operations Dennis M Murphy Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Israeli-Hezbollah War of 2006 provides recent, glaring evidence of how the current information environment has impacted the way warfare is conducted today. Hezbollah masterfully manipulated and controlled that environment to its advantage, using (at times staged and altered) photographs and videos to garner regional and worldwide support. If this doesn’t sound new, it shouldn’t…especially if you are an Israeli. Hamas effectively used the same techniques to turn the Battle of Jenin in April, 2002 into not only a strategic informational victory, but a historical legend of resistance that lives on today in the hearts and minds of Palestinians."

Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development Mister Nathan P Freier PKSOI Paper by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute, Strategic Studies Institute "The current defense team confronted a game-changing “strategic shock” in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense’s (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations."

Living Perilously in a Bubble Dr Leonard Wong Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "For the past decade, we have become accustomed to hearing the sound of bursting bubbles. During the late 1990s, it was the giddy days of the dotcom bubble. Internet-based companies gained rock star popularity as stock prices soared, venture capital flowed freely, and traditional blue-chip companies scurried to mimic the dotcoms who gained success by bypassing standard business models."

PLA Missions Beyond Taiwan Mr Marc Miller Colloquium Brief by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, The National Bureau of Asian Research, and The Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A & M University "The PLA is being assigned and training for an increasing variety of missions, including nontraditional battlefields such as outer space and cyber space, as well as nontraditional functions, such as United Nations peacekeeping operations."

Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development Mr Nathan P Freier Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The current defense team confronted a gamechanging “strategic shock” in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense’s (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations."

Leadership in the Era of the Human Singularity: New Demands, New Skills, New Response, The Proteus Monograph Series, Volume 2, Issue 4 Barton Kunstler Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership, Proteus Monograph Series Fellows Program "The “human singularity” refers to the integration of technology into the human body so that levels of mental acuity and physical ability eclipse all previous known levels. Because of the unique character of these enhanced human specimens, they will represent a singularity in human history, something unique and to which a new set of laws may well apply. A broad front of converging core technologies, such as nanotechnology, bioengineering, supercomputing, materials development, and robotics, may make such individuals commonplace by 2030; indeed, significant steps have already been taken to achieve this goal, and the singularity could arrive earlier."

Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers, The Proteus Monograph Series, Volume 2, Issue 5 Noel Hendrickson Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership Proteus Monograph Series Fellows Program "Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., “What If” statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities (e.g., “If the United States had not abolished the Iraqi army in 2003, then the Iraqi insurgency would have been significantly smaller in 2005”) or future possibilities (e.g., “If Iran had nuclear weapons, then it would provide this technology to Hezbollah”). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. For, any proposal about the appropriate response to a particular situation (past or future) assumes that certain things would or might occur if that response were made."

Transformation of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces Mr Ritchie L Dion, Prof Bernard F Griffard, Prof James W Shufelt Jr Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The South Caucasus region is bounded by the Black Sea in the west and the Caspian Sea in the east, by Russia in the north, Turkey in the west and Iran in the south. This region, in combination with the Russian North Caucasus, is often regarded as the land bridge where the East and the West meet. Within this geographically confined space three small, yet completely dissimilar nations have emerged – Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. The history of the region and the present character of its peoples are inextricably tied to the legacy of the several empires that have ruled over this region. Each left a legacy, for better or worse, within the three nations. Despite this legacy, or in some cases even because of it, each country has managed to develop their own distinct character, culture and history. "

Experimentation in Support of DoD's Homeland Defense and Civil Support Joint Operating Concept Prof Bert B Tussing Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "On 23 and 24 September 2008, the Center for Strategic Leadership hosted a “Limited Objective Experiment” (LOE) in support of the validation and refinement of the Department of Defense’s (DoD)Homeland Defense and Civil Support Joint Operating Concept (HD-CS JOC). The event was the fourth in a series that envisions a total of 12 such experiments, all designed to help describe how Joint Force Commanders will conduct and support operations in this regime eight to twenty years in the future. Previous LOE’s were hosted and facilitated by the National Defense University and the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security. The last two experiments have been hosted and conducted by CSL at Collins Hall."