Defense Planning for National Security: Navigation Aids for the Mystery Tour Dr Colin S Gray Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The purpose of this monograph is to explore and examine the challenge to America’s defense planners of needing to make purposeful and prudent choices in military preparation for the future. The problem for defense planning that is beyond resolution is the scientifically certain fact that we have no data from the future about the future. Moreover, this will always be a fact. No matter the scholarly discipline and tradition to which a defense planner owes or feels most allegiance, he or she needs to recognize and attempt to understand fully a personal and institutional condition of awesome ignorance of detail about the future."

Senior Officer Talent Management: Fostering Institutional Adaptability LTC Michael J Colarusso, COL David S Lyle Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press Officer talent management is a critical research area, as maximizing the unique contributions of each officer is vital to the Army’s success in today’s austere fiscal and manpower environment. More specifically, the Secretary of the Army, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, and the Army Chief of Staff are all focused upon creating an adaptable institutional Army, one that can rapidly respond to operational demands. To that end, this monograph analyzes current senior officer management policies and recommends ways to make that cohort more adaptable. A central finding is that all-ranks officer talent management is critical to creating adaptable senior leaders. While this monograph focuses upon officer personnel policy, follow-on research will tackle compensation policy and organizational redesign, also within a talent management framework.

Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China Mr David E Brown Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press This monograph on Africa’s energy future describes how the frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent’s 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa’s geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about Africa’s future growth and strategic position in the global economy. Because of a domestic boom in shale oil and gas in the United States, however, our nation’s energy imports from Africa have been falling rapidly in recent years, raising the key strategic issue of whether Africa matters as much to U.S. energy security as it once did.

Politics and Economics in Putin's Russia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The papers included here, except for the editor’s introduction, all come from the Strategic Studies Institute’s annual conference on Russia in May 2012. In one way or another, they all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair, at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U.S. interests."

U.S. Governmental Information Operations and Strategic Communications: A Discredited Tool or User Failure? Implications for Future Conflict Dr Steve Tatham Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Through the prism of operations in Afghanistan, this monograph examines how the U.S. Government’s Strategic Communication (SC) and, in particular, the Department of Defense’s (DoD) Information Operations (IO) and Military Information Support to Operations (MISO) programs, have contributed to U.S. strategic and foreign policy objectives. It will assess whether current practice is fit for purpose in possible future operations and will argue that the U.S. Government has for many years been encouraged by large contractors to approach communications objectives through techniques heavily influenced by advertising and marketing..."

Dangerous Ground: The Spratly Islands and U.S. Interests and Approaches LTC Clarence J Bouchat (USAF, Ret) Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The region around the Spratly Islands and the South China Sea is important to the economies of the surrounding states in terms of fish resources and the potential for natural gas and oil. This bonanza of riches spurs out-sized claims in the region that result in diplomatic and physical clashes. The large flow of maritime commerce around the Spratly Islands is also crucial to the economic well-being of the region and the world, and occupation of the islands dictates control of the surrounding sea’s maritime traffic, security, and economic exploitation. Their importance is seen in the 50 remote military garrisons on these islets by the claiming states, and the decades-long history of military and civilian enforcement clashes which increase the risk of conflict. "

Reforming the Police in Post-Soviet States: Georgia and Kyrgyzstan Dr Erica Marat Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In most Soviet successor states, the police (militia) are among the least trusted government agencies. The police are frequently seen as representatives of the state who are allowed to persecute ordinary citizens, extort bribes, and protect the real criminals. This leads to cycles of mutual antagonism in which society does not expect the police to perform their function properly, and the police are unable to enforce state regulation of society. In the examples of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in this monograph, Dr. Erica Marat examines which domestic processes will likely fail and which have a chance to succeed in changing the post-Soviet police from a punitive institution into a more democratic entity. "

Central Asia After 2014 Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers (the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a lesser degree) is becoming increasingly more visible as a key factor that will shape this region after the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. The papers collected here, presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) annual conference on Russia in 2012, go far to explain what the agenda for that rivalry is and how it is likely to influence regional trends after 2013. Therefore, these papers provide a vital set of insights into an increasingly critical area of international politics and security, especially as it is clear that the United States is reducing, but not totally withdrawing, its military establishment in Afghanistan and is seeking to consolidate long-term relationships with Central Asian states."

Building Better Armies: An Insider’s Account of Liberia Dr Sean McFate Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "We have long known that helping allies build better armies and police forces is a key to regional stability and the exit strategy for costly missions like Afghanistan in an “as they stand up, we stand down” approach. Yet the U.S. track record on this is unacceptably weak. The 2012 coup in Mali was staged by U.S. trained Malian soldiers. In Afghanistan, after years of training, the Pentagon assessed that only one of the Afghan National Army’s 23 brigades is able to operate independently. This does not augur well for U.S. troop withdrawal in 2014 or for the future of Afghanistan."