Russia After Putin Dr Richard J Krickus Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the United States reassesses relations with Russia and develops doctrine that addresses a turbulent security environment, Dr. Richard J. Krickus addresses a brace of pivotal questions that have a bearing on the future of Vladimir Putin and his Power Vertical. Are Putin’s days numbered as many Russian watchers predict and what will Russia look like after he leaves the Kremlin? Toward this end, Krickus assesses four plausible scenarios. They include first, Status Quo, depicting the major geo-political features of Russia today; second, Stalin Lite that embraces most of the characteristics of a police state; third, The Western Path to Development that reflects pluralistic phenomenon associated with a “normal” European country; and fourth, Russia in Chaos, an outcome that anticipates the virtual disintegration of Russia as we know it today."

Islamism and Security in Bosnia-Herzegovina Ms Leslie S Lebl Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Bosnia-Herzegovina, once thought to be on the way to joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU), is instead falling behind, mired in political bickering, economic stalemate, and governmental dysfunction. In this difficult situation, Islamism poses a significant threat to Bosnia’s fragile domestic stability. Although the levels of Islamist terrorism and separatist movements are comparable to those elsewhere in Europe, they are particularly troublesome in Bosnia for two reasons. First, senior political and religious Bosniak (Muslim) leaders have long-standing ties to the Muslim Brotherhood and Islamist terrorism, including al-Qaeda and Iran, that they are very reluctant to abandon. Second, Islamism contributes significantly to Bosnia’s dysfunction as a country. Calls to re-impose traditional Islamic law, or sharia, arouse opposition from Bosnian Serbs and Croats, as does the nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire and Islamic Caliphate shared by key Bosniak leaders, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and the Turkish government. "

The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq Dr Azeem Ibrahim Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other salafist-jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas its controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq-based Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) and there are indications of limits to al-Qaeda’s ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles."

Assessing the People's Liberation Army in the Hu Jintao Era Mr Roy Kamphausen, Dr David Lai, Mr Travis Tanner Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press This volume provides unique insights into the PLA’s achievements over the span of Hu Jintao’s tenure as Central Military Commission Chair from 2002 to 2012. This period saw a remarkable growth in capabilities and a critical expansion in the military’s missions. The PLA increased its adoption of information technologies and advanced sensors into its modernization efforts. It also improved its ability to carry out joint training and missions other than war. Reflecting developments in the Chinese Communist Party, the PLA also experienced important changes in its political focus and mission. Most significantly, Hu Jintao introduced the “historic missions,” which oriented the PLA toward a much greater international mission than it had previously undertaken. Supporting this new international mission, the PLA expanded its participation in international military exercises, as well as peacekeeping operations and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions abroad, including its first ever permanent naval deployment abroad in the counterpiracy missions in the Gulf of Aden. Understanding how the PLA matured and developed in the Hu era is critical to understanding the PLA today, and for identifying opportunities to further cooperation between our two militaries.

The Evolution of Los Zetas in Mexico and Central America: Sadism as an Instrument of Cartel Warfare Dr George W Grayson Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Los Zetas, which appeared on the scene in the late 1990s, have raised the bar for cruelty among Mexican Mafiosi. Traditionally, the country’s narcotics cartels maximized earnings by working hand-in-glove with police, military officers, intelligence agencies, union leaders, and office holders affiliated with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which dominated the political landscape from 1929 to 2000. An informal set of rules benefited both the drug capos and their allies in government posts. On the one hand, officials raked in generous payments from the malefactors for turning a blind eye to—or employing the Federal Judicial Police and other agencies to facilitate—the growing, storage, processing, and export of marijuana, cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamines. "

Augmenting Our Influence: Alliance Revitalization and Partner Development Dr John R Deni Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The United States prefers to fight in coalitions, and has made this clear in both word and deed. Most of the key American national security or defense strategies, such as the Quadrennial Defense Review report or the National Security Strategy, of the last decade or more note this fact. In practice, the United States worked diligently and tirelessly to construct and maintain coalitions of the willing in both Iraq and Afghanistan. American political and military leaders did this—and will continue to do this for future conflicts—because coalition allies provide both political legitimacy at home and abroad for broad national security policies and specific military operations, and because coalition partners help to shoulder security burdens..."

Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View Mr Keir Giles, Dr Andrew Monaghan Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The United States and its allies are in general agreement on the legal status of conflict in cyberspace. Although key principles remain unresolved, such as what precisely constitutes an armed attack or use of force in cyberspace, overall there is a broad legal consensus among Euro-Atlantic nations that existing international law and international commitments are sufficient to regulate cyber conflict. "

Russia's Counterinsurgency in North Caucasus: Performance and Consequences Dr Ariel Cohen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph examines the underlying issues behind the continuing low-level Islamist insurgency movement in the Russian North Caucasus. It begins by analyzing the history of relations between the Russian and the North Caucasus nations, focusing specifically on the process of subjugating the region by the Russian Empire. Since the 18th century, Russia has used brutal force to expand territorially to the Caucasus. The mistreatment of the North Caucasus continued after World War I and especially during and after World War II, when entire North Caucasus nations faced persecution and forcible deportations to remote parts of the Soviet Union—in which up to 30 percent of the exiles perished. Thus, the Russians planted the seeds of resentment and hatred toward them that persist to the present time."

Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map? Mr Bill Park Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy. Tensions have since been compounded by the discovery of significant quantities of oil and gas in the KRG area, and Erbil’s pursuit of an energy policy independent of and in opposition to Baghdad. Turkey, uneasy with the increasingly sectarian and authoritarian flavor of the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, has since moved closer to the KRG, not least with respect to energy issues. This has deepened Turkish-Iraqi tensions still further. "