Past Publications

Projecting Pyongyang: The Future of North Korea's Kim Jong Il Regime Dr Andrew Scobell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the future trajectory of the Pyongyang regime and explores a range of future scenarios. It does not consider the future of North Korea as a geographic or territorial entity. Some analysts and observers discuss the future without clarifying whether they are discussing the country of North Korea or the Pyongyang regime. In this monograph, the focus is on the fate of the regime dominated by the Kim Dynasty, initially ruled by Kim Il Sung and then led by his son, Kim Jong Il, following the former’s death in 1994. A fundamental assumption is that the regime will collapse. Thus, the key question is not whether the regime will collapse, but when and how it will collapse. The logic behind this assumption is based on this author’s assessment that the Kim regime is a totalitarian one, and that such a regime has a limited life span. However, this collapse may be a long and drawn out process that could very well play out over a period of years or even over the course of a decade or more."

Drug Intoxicated Irregular Fighters: Complications, Dangers, and Responses Dr Paul Rexton Kan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The presence of drugged fighters is not unknown in the history of warfare. Yet widespread drug use on the battlefield is now part of protracted conflicts largely fought by nonprofessional combatants that take place in an international system characterized by the process of globalization. From marijuana, khat, hallucinogenic mushrooms, cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine to looted pharmaceuticals, irregular fighters have found a ready supply of narcotics to consume for a variety of combat purposes. Such consumption has led to unpredictable fighting, the commission of atrocities, and to the prolongation of internal violence. The presence of intoxicated combatants will continue to be a feature of armed conflict and requires a fuller accounting to adequately prepare policymakers and military planners for future conflicts."

The Political Context Behind Successful Revolutionary Movements, Three Case Studies: Vietnam (1955-63), Algeria (1945-62), and Nicaragua (1967-79) LTC Raymond A Millen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Lieutenant Colonel Raymond Millen examines the extent to which some states create the conditions for revolutionary movements to flourish. Employing Jeff Goodwin’s analytical framework for exploring the political context behind revolutionary movements, Lieutenant Colonel Millen explores how the governments in Vietnam (1955-63), Algeria (1945-62), and Nicaragua (1967-79) unintentionally empowered revolutionary movements, resulting in these governments’ demise. He supplements Goodwin’s framework by including an examination of the insurgent leadership’s political-military acumen. "

The North Korean Ballistic Missile Program Dr Daniel A Pinkston Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "North Korean ballistic missiles are a direct threat to Northeast Asian security, and North Korean missile proliferation poses a threat to other regions, particularly the Middle East and South Asia. North Korea is an isolated and authoritarian one-party state; the political system is based upon an extraordinary personality cult that idolizes current leader, Kim Jong Il (Kim Chŏng-il), and his deceased father, Kim Il Sung (Kim Il-sŏng). Several factors have contributed to Pyongyang’s chronic insecurity including national division, the Korean War, the international politics of the Cold War, and doubts about the commitments of its alliance partners."

Deterrence, Missile Defense, and Collateral Damage in the Iranian-Israeli Strategic Relationship Dr W Andrew Terrill Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "One of the central concerns of U.S. strategic analysts examining the Middle East is the danger that Iran may develop a nuclear weapons capability which it could use to threaten the security of other regional states. These fears exist despite the recent declassification of a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) “key judgments” summary suggesting that the Iranian nuclear weapons development program was frozen in 2003."

Developing Strategic Leaders for the 21st Century Dr Jeffrey D McCausland Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph, by Dr. Jeffrey McCausland, focuses on the human capital required to succeed in the contemporary national security environment. It begins with an examination of the multitude of studies by both government and private agencies concerning this problem over the past 2 decades. It reviews the current development programs in three departments of the Federal Government—the Department of Defense, Department of State, and Central Intelligence Agency. Finally, the author outlines a proposal for a National Security Professional Program to meet this pressing need."

Falling Behind: International Scrutiny of the Peaceful Atom Mr Henry D Sokolski Books by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Ask how effective International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear safeguards are in blocking proliferation, and you are sure to get a set of predictable reactions. Those skeptical of the system will complain that IAEA inspections are too sketchy to ferret out nuclear misbehavior (e.g., North Korea, Iraq, and Iran) and that in the rare cases when such violators are found out (almost always by national intelligence agencies), the IAEA’s board of governors is loath to act. IAEA supporters have a rather opposite view."

Towards a New Russia Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "It is obvious that U.S.-Russian relations and East-West relations more broadly have recently deteriorated. Yet analyses of why this is the case have often been confined to American policy. The author of this monograph, Dr. Stephen Blank, seeks to analyze some of the key strategic issues at stake in this relationship and trace that decline to Russian factors which have been overlooked or neglected. At the same time, he has devoted considerable time to recording some of the shortcomings of U.S. policy and recommending a way out of the growing impasse confronting both sides."

Dissent and Strategic Leadership of the Military Professions Dr Don M Snider Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Vice Admiral James Stockdale, Vietnam prisoner of war and Medal of Honor recipient, once said, 'Even in the most detached duty, we warriors must keep foremost in our minds that there are boundaries to the prerogatives of leadership, moral boundaries.' In this monograph, the author delineates a segment of these boundaries as they are understood from the study of military professions and as derived from the roles and responsibilities of those seniors privileged to be the profession’s temporary stewards—the colonels/captains and Flag Officers who comprise the strategic leadership. Such boundaries mean that the decision to dissent can never be a purely personal matter. Rather it will reverberate outward impinging at a minimum the three critical trust relationships of the military profession—those with the American people, those with civilian and military leaders at the highest levels of decisionmaking, and those with the junior corps of officers and noncommissioned officers of our armed forces."