Strategic Issues

Strategic Planning in the Albanian Armed Forces COL Daniel G Grey, Prof Bernard F Griffard, Dr R Craig Nation Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "On July 9 2008 the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies signed Accession Protocols with Albania and Croatia. This action opened the way for the full NATO membership of these two countries, and marked a major milestone in the continuing post-Cold War realignment of Europe. The event was especially significant for Albania, a country essentially isolated from its neighbors and the rest of Europe from 1948 to 1991. While there is still work to be done, most indications are that Albania will formally join the 26 nation pact in April 2009, coinciding with the 60th anniversary of the founding of NATO."

Operational Security in an Age of Radical Transparency Dennis M Murphy Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "We often hearken back to the Cold War as a simpler time…not because of the danger it portended, but because of the nature of the threat. That bipolar world defined a clear enemy with an order of battle that could be templated and processes and methodologies that could be studied. It was a two dimensional world of good and bad. Operations security (OPSEC), defined as “select(ing) and execut(ing) measures that eliminate or reduce to an acceptable level the vulnerabilities of friendly actions to adversary exploitation,” was equally cut and dry. U.S. commanders in Europe were principally concerned with the Soviet-bloc spy taking pictures of the caserne motor pool. Troops were briefed prior to training exercises and deployments not to discuss dates, times or specifics of the operation under threat of military justice penalties. And that was that. Risk reduced…OPSEC considered and maintained. But, oh how the world has changed..."

Affairs of State: The Interagency and National Security Dr Gabriel Marcella Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "No power in history has matched the global reach and influence of the United States. Yet coordinating and integrating the various elements of national power through the interagency process remains the essential challenge of American statesmen. The challenge will be even greater in the 21st century as strategists, civilian and military alike, grapple with a geopolitical context that will require fluency in meshing all the levers and instruments of power. The authors of this compendium join in a common effort to shed light on how the interagency works with respect to national security. "

Regional Spillover Effects of the Iraq War Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The Iraq war has been one of the dominant factors influencing U.S. strategic thinking in the Middle East and globally since 2003. Yet the problems of this highly dynamic and fluid war have sometimes forced U.S. policymakers to address near-term issues that cannot be safely postponed at the expense of long-term strategic thought. Such a technique, while understandable, cannot continue indefinitely as an approach to policy. Long-term planning remains vital for advancing regionwide U.S. and Iraqi interests following a U.S. drawdown from Iraq. Such planning must include dealing with current and potential “spillover” from the Iraq war. In this monograph, Dr. W. Andrew Terrill presents ideas, concerns, and strategies that can help to fill this gap in the literature and enrich the debate on the actual and potential spillover effects of the Iraq war that will face U.S. policymakers, possibly for decades. "

Fighting Back: New Media and Military Operations Dennis M Murphy Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Israeli-Hezbollah War of 2006 provides recent, glaring evidence of how the current information environment has impacted the way warfare is conducted today. Hezbollah masterfully manipulated and controlled that environment to its advantage, using (at times staged and altered) photographs and videos to garner regional and worldwide support. If this doesn’t sound new, it shouldn’t…especially if you are an Israeli. Hamas effectively used the same techniques to turn the Battle of Jenin in April, 2002 into not only a strategic informational victory, but a historical legend of resistance that lives on today in the hearts and minds of Palestinians."

Living Perilously in a Bubble Dr Leonard Wong Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "For the past decade, we have become accustomed to hearing the sound of bursting bubbles. During the late 1990s, it was the giddy days of the dotcom bubble. Internet-based companies gained rock star popularity as stock prices soared, venture capital flowed freely, and traditional blue-chip companies scurried to mimic the dotcoms who gained success by bypassing standard business models."

Known Unknowns: Unconventional "Strategic Shocks" in Defense Strategy Development Mr Nathan P Freier Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The current defense team confronted a gamechanging “strategic shock” in its first 8 months in office. The next team would be well-advised to expect the same. Defense-relevant strategic shocks jolt convention to such an extent that they force sudden, unanticipated change in the Department of Defense’s (DoD) perceptions about threat, vulnerability, and strategic response. Their unanticipated onset forces the entire defense enterprise to reorient and restructure institutions, employ capabilities in unexpected ways, and confront challenges that are fundamentally different than those routinely considered in defense calculations."

Leadership in the Era of the Human Singularity: New Demands, New Skills, New Response, The Proteus Monograph Series, Volume 2, Issue 4 Barton Kunstler Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership, Proteus Monograph Series Fellows Program "The “human singularity” refers to the integration of technology into the human body so that levels of mental acuity and physical ability eclipse all previous known levels. Because of the unique character of these enhanced human specimens, they will represent a singularity in human history, something unique and to which a new set of laws may well apply. A broad front of converging core technologies, such as nanotechnology, bioengineering, supercomputing, materials development, and robotics, may make such individuals commonplace by 2030; indeed, significant steps have already been taken to achieve this goal, and the singularity could arrive earlier."

Counterfactual Reasoning: A Basic Guide for Analysts, Strategists, and Decision Makers, The Proteus Monograph Series, Volume 2, Issue 5 Noel Hendrickson Study by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership Proteus Monograph Series Fellows Program "Counterfactual reasoning is the process of evaluating conditional claims about alternate possibilities and their consequences (i.e., “What If” statements). These alternatives can be either past possibilities (e.g., “If the United States had not abolished the Iraqi army in 2003, then the Iraqi insurgency would have been significantly smaller in 2005”) or future possibilities (e.g., “If Iran had nuclear weapons, then it would provide this technology to Hezbollah”). Counterfactuals are essential to intelligence analysis because they are implicit in all strategic assessments. For, any proposal about the appropriate response to a particular situation (past or future) assumes that certain things would or might occur if that response were made."