Center for Strategic Leadership

Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this comprehensive analysis, a team of U.S. Army War College students examines China’s strategic ambitions to become the world’s dominant power by 2049. The report delves into China’s multifaceted approach, highlighting its focus on economic growth, regional hegemony, and global influence through technological advancements and strategic partnerships. Despite China’s progress, the report identifies significant challenges, including internal security issues, economic vulnerabilities, and geopolitical tensions, which could impede its path to global supremacy. The study underscores the implications for the United States and its allies, emphasizing the need for strategic preparedness in response to China’s evolving global strategy.

Contested Deployment Bert B. Tussing, John Eric Powell, Benjamin C. Leitzel With James L. Boling, Jonathan M. Boling, John J. Borek, Charles P. Brady, John Bretthorst, Stephen W. Ladd, Steven E. Landis, Edmund “Beau” Riely, Arthur C. Roscoe, Brian D. Wisniewski Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press, Center for Strategic Leadership "Early in academic year 2018, a group of US Army War College faculty and students came together in pursuit of an integrated research project devoted to an examination of contested deployment and the growing realization the US homeland can no longer be considered an inviolable zone in preparing for war. Expecting free movement of forces in mobilization, movement to ports of embarkation, and deployment against the nation’s adversaries is beneath reason. Two oceans and benevolent neighbors to the north and south can no longer be considered a significant buffer against internal and external enemies. Adversaries of the United States will seek to disrupt or disable the movement of its forces long before they can be placed in combat against foes overseas, and the nation must be prepared for this opposition."

by COL Johnny Casiano , Mrs. Jo Dempsey, Mr. Gregory Lynch, LTC Andy Pannier, and COL William Snook; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In “The Convergence of ‘Exciting’ Technology Between 2030 and 2040,” the Concept Squad, a small team of U.S. Army War College students, examines 17 transformative technologies poised to reshape military capabilities and national security strategies within the next two decades. Highlighting innovations such as optogenetics, neural lace, and quantum radars, the publication underscores the critical need for the U.S. military to adapt to these advancements in the face of increasing competition from near-peer adversities.

James M. Mitchell, James A. Kievit, Kirk J. Junker, Patrick J. Malone, Leslie L. Semrau; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The U.S. Army War College student team “Indovino Nefario” analyzes the future force design approaches of China and Russia, emphasizing that both nations are likely to adopt policy-driven and competition-centric strategies rather than traditional doctrinal frameworks. The report highlights that while China focuses on integrating military and economic strategies through its Military Civil Fusion policy, Russia is expected to prioritize asymmetric capabilities and modernization of its conventional forces to maintain deterrence amid economic constraints, with both nations aiming to mitigate risks associated with armed conflict in 2035.

COL Joseph Sheridan (USA), Ms. Bernice Parkhill (USA), COL Gregory Frazier (USAR), COL Jason Seery (USA), LTC Matt Williams (USAR); Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In this report, the authors explore how emerging technologies are poised to transform military intelligence operations. The report identifies key technologies such as quantum computing, 5G and 6G communications, machine learning, and advanced sensors that are expected to enhance the capabilities of intelligence analysts. These advancements will enable analysts to process vast amounts of data more efficiently and make informed decisions in complex environments. However, the report emphasizes the continued necessity of human oversight to navigate the areas where technology falls short, ensuring that the integration of these technologies supports rather than replaces human judgement in military intelligence operations.

Theater Army Role in Multi-Domain Operations - An Integrated Research Project Gregory L. Cantwell Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The USAWC is responsible for educating the next generation of senior leaders on the application of strategic Landpower. This cannot be accomplished without providing a thorough understanding of the roles of the theater army. This integrated research project provides a foundational understanding of the challenges facing the Joint force in applying the MDO concept to the future operating environment and the science of how the Army prepares for large scale combat operations at the strategic level."

by Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF). Under the Direction of: Prof Kristan Wheaton; Publication by Estimation of Technology Convergence by 2035 This comprehensive analysis from students at the U.S. Army War College’s Futures Seminar explores the anticipated convergence of various technologies – including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum technology – by 2035, highlighting their potential military applications and implications for national security. The authors, a diverse team of military and government professionals, utilize structured analytic techniques to project significant technological advancements and their synergistic effects, emphasizing the critical need for strategic foresight in military planning and operations.

Vincent A. Amerena Sr., Steven M. Clark, Andrew L. Heymann, Martin D. Lepak, John A. Urciuoli; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document outlines a strategic framework for evolving the Army’s talent management approach to meet future demands. It identifies 12 critical elements necessary for a talent-based system, emphasizing the importance of a self-learning system, visibility of the total force, and expandable access to personnel across the Department of Defense. Additionally, the report addresses procedural and cultural impediments that could hinder the implementation of an agile system, such as mobile access to the talent marketplace and military compensation challenges. The report serves as a blueprint for transforming Army personnel management to align with emerging workforce trends and operational needs by 2035.

Ashraf S. Abdelhak, Jerry A. Brown, Rafael A. Duran, Russell V. Hoff, Samuel P. Smith; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document meticulously evaluates the modernization plans and defense strategies of key global players, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, identifying 19 capabilities and 22 unique threat signatures that will likely evolve. The report emphasizes the necessity for the U.S. Army to develop sophisticated, integrated sensor systems capable of detecting both technical and non-technical signatures, as adversaries increasingly employ advanced technologies such as electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, and stealth to obscure their actions. As global powers continue to enhance their military capabilities, this analysis serves as a crucial guide for maintaining strategic superiority and ensuring national security.