Center for Strategic Leadership

by COL Byron Cadiz, COL T. Marc Skinner, LTC Robert Mayhue, LTC Lori Perkins, LTC Shun Yu. This report, produced by US Army War College Futures research team Axis Insight 2035, represents eight months of rigorous research from October 2024 to May 2025 to answer Mr. Ian Sullivan, TRADOC G2’s pivotal question: How will China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea react to U.S.-led deterrence efforts by 2035? By 2035, it is almost certain that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea will respond to US deterrence with entanglement, disruptive technology, and persistent coercion. The global landscape is rapidly transforming, characterized by increasing complexity and challenges to U.S. influence. This seismic shift is marked by two key findings, the first encompassed in three threat vectors: 1) an entangled future of situational cooperation and transactional interdependence among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea which amplifies deterrence challenges; 2) disruptive technology by which the U.S. advantages are severely threatened or lost to adversarial emerging technologies; and 3) persistent coercion consisting of the expansion and exploitation of gray zone activities in which aggression below the level of armed conflict bypasses traditional deterrence. Collectively, these developments forecast that U.S. deterrence is at risk of becoming strategically irrelevant without integrated, adaptive responses across all instruments of power.

by COL Joseph Gilbert, COL Matthew Miller, COL Christopher Ronald, LTC Benverren Fortune, LTC Steve Kwon. This report, produced by Team POETIC at the United States Army War College over 28 weeks from October 2024 through May 2025, addresses a critical strategic question posed by the Headquarters, Department of the Army, G2: What will the future of collaboration among China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea likely look like over the next 10-15 years? Based on analysis of over 1,077 sources and interviews with subject matter experts, the study concludes that military, economic, and technological collaboration among these four nations is very likely (80-95%) to deepen but remain transactional, asymmetric, and opportunistic rather than forming a formal alliance. China emerges as the dominant force within this bloc, leveraging its economic strength and digital infrastructure exports to create asymmetric dependencies, while Russia, Iran, and North Korea provide complementary military-industrial assets, energy exports, and cyber capabilities. The research reveals that while these nations will likely strengthen cooperation through sanctions-resistant trade practices, dual-use technology sharing, and selective capability exchanges, internal mistrust, divergent priorities, and asymmetric capabilities will limit their global influence to regional theaters rather than creating a unified geopolitical front capable of fundamentally challenging the Western-led international order.

by COL Bradley Tibbetts, LTC Terrell Lawson, LTC William Hall, LTC Kale Sawyer, LTC Colin Gandy. This report, produced by the Irregular Advantage Initiative at the United States Army War College from October 2024 to May 2025, addresses Major General Shawn R. Satterfield's (SOCOM J7) critical question: what opportunities will emerge in the next 15-20 years to allow special operations forces to enable expanded maneuver of the Joint Force in Large-Scale Combat Operations? Through analysis of over 375 sources, the research team identified sixteen technological and operational opportunities organized into three key "Maneuver Accelerators": Unconventional Acquisition (leveraging shadow supply chains, additive manufacturing, and unmanned systems), Distributed Autonomous Organizations (using blockchain-enabled networks for decentralized operations), and Heutagogy with Human-Machine Integration (combining adaptive learning with cognitive enhancements). The report concludes that future SOF operators will transition from primarily physical-prowess-based forces to adaptable, technology-integrated teams capable of operating in contested environments, exploiting adversary dependencies while rapidly cycling between high and low-technology methods to enable Joint Force maneuver in an increasingly transparent and AI-dominated battlefield.

by COL Brian Wong, Col Mark Hannigan, LTC Sarah Easter Strayer, LTC Benjamin Stegmann, LTC Joe Hales. The U.S. military healthcare system faces fundamental transformation over the next 15 years as artificial intelligence, autonomous robotics, and emerging technologies reshape workforce composition and care delivery. This report, produced by Project MedEvX at the United States Army War College from October 2024 to May 2025, addresses U.S. Army Surgeon General LTG Mary K. Izaguirre's strategic question: Given the potential for Large-Scale Combat Operations, what human capital dynamics will likely shape military healthcare through 2040? The research reveals that human-level AI and autonomous systems will join medical rounds, electronic health records will achieve interoperability "without borders," AI-driven genomic mapping will revolutionize talent selection, and healthcare delivery will "decentralize to survive" through distributed autonomous organizations enabled by predictive logistics and remote surgery. This technocentric revolution presents opportunities for enhanced patient outcomes while creating significant challenges in workforce adaptation, cybersecurity, and ethical implementation that require military medicine to fundamentally reimagine its approach to training and human capital management.

by Mr. Benjamin Bahoque, COL David Taylor, COL Michael Smith, COL Kurt McDowell, LTC Katie Enochs. The U.S. military stands at a pivotal juncture, tasked with sustaining its maneuver warfare advantage through 2040 amidst rapid technological advancements, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and an increasingly complex multi-domain operational environment. This report, produced by a Futures Seminar Research Team at the United States Army War College, represents eight months of rigorous research from October 2024 to May 2025, addressing the Joint Staff J7 Lt Gen Anderson’s critical question: How can the U.S. military innovate to maintain its maneuver warfare advantage through 2040? Drawing on open-source documents and employing structured analytic techniques such as the Nominal Group Technique, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Process, Alternative Competing Hypotheses, and the Millhone Method, the report achieves moderate analytic confidence given the complexities of forecasting over a 15-year horizon. Five key findings anchor the analysis: the imperative of an elastic mindset, the centrality of rapid adaptation, the transformative potential of emerging technologies, the necessity of a unified innovation ecosystem, and the need for talent management reform. These findings collectively chart a strategic path to ensure the U.S. military remains agile, predictive, and dominant in an era of unprecedented disruption.

by Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Issue paper from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; A battle is going on right now, and every military in the world is fighting it. Victory in the ongoing battle is crucial. The militaries on the winning side will likely be on the winning side of the next large-scale war. The losers will likely be forgotten, studied only for the mistakes they made. This is the battle of Moore’s chasm. The battle of Moore’s chasm takes place everywhere. Physical manifestations of the battle exist in Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and Gaza. But equally important conceptual and theoretical manifestations of the battle exist in the Pentagon, on Arbatskaya Square in Moscow, and deep inside the August 1st Building in Beijing. What this battle is about, and how to win it, are the subjects of this issue paper.

by Professor Kristan J. Wheaton, Professor Bert Tussing, Dr. George Schwartz, Mr. Brian Foster, Patricia Hayes, Mr. Chad Jagmin; Collins Center Update by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The Collins Center Update is a quarterly summary of programs and activities at the Center for Strategic Leader (CSL) at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC). This issue features articles on the Innovation Champions Course by Prof. Kristian Wheaton; The Homeland Defense Symposium by Professor Bert Tussing and Dr. George Schwartz; The National Security Simulation Exercise of Competition, Crisis, and Conflict by Mr. Brian Foster; The Valley Forge Military College National Security Symposium by Dr. George Schwartz; The USAWC Fellows Focus by Ms. Patricia Hayes; and The From Data to Decision in Warfighting Course by Mr. Chad Jagmin.

Edited by Dr. George M. Schwartz; Conference proceedings from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; In February 2024, The US Army War College hosted the first of an annual series of Homeland Defense Symposiums at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The purpose of the symposium was to examine the challenges of Homeland Defense while advancing research and proposing solutions to strategic challenges facing the Army, Joint Force, and governmental agencies. Partnering with leading agencies to examine these issues, the symposium informed the strategic thought being focused on homeland defense issues, both inside and out of the military, with a multi-faceted focus of deterring aggression, defeating an adversary should deterrence fail, and mitigating the impact of the adversary’s actions against our people, our infrastructure, and our institutions. This compendium summarizes the symposium proceedings and makes a major contribution to the existing body of knowledge regarding the mission, concepts, and challenges of homeland defense. The US Army War College will use the results of the symposium to shape continued examination of and offer solutions to this vital topic.

by LTC Blair Wilcox, LTC Chris Miller, Dr. José de Arimatéia da Cruz, Dr. Michele Devlin, Patricia Hayes, MAJ Andy O’Neill, Dr. Charles Anderson, Jamie Lethiecq; Collins Center Update from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; Inside this Issue: From Data to Decision in Warfighting Course, From Players to Creators: Cultivating War Game Design Skills for Twenty-First Century Challenges, The Antarctic: The Importance of the White Continent, New US Army War College Fellowship: Baltic Defense College, War and Peace and Pieces at Connections 2024, Academic Year 2025 New War College Fellowships: Vanderbilt University, The Theater Army Staff Course Enters Fourth Year