Strategic Issues

Democratization Vs. Liberalization in the Arab World: Dilemmas and Challenges for U.S. Foreign Policy Dr Daniel Brumberg Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph looks at the political origins and dynamics of “liberalized autocracy” in the Arab world. Liberalized autocracy is a system of rule that allows for a measure of political openness and competition in the electoral, party, and press arenas, while ultimately ensuring that power rests in the hands of ruling regimes. This mix of control and openness has not only benefitted ruling elites, but oppositions as well. It gives them room to “let off steam,” to criticize regimes, and occasionally to affect public policy. Moreover, given the absence of consensus in many Arab states over national identity, liberalized autocracy has provided an umbrella by which competing groups―Islamists, secularists, Kurds, and Berbers―can achieve a measure of peaceful coexistence precisely because no group actually wields power. The United States largely has supported such hybrid systems, a fact of political life that has not changed dramatically under the Bush administration despite its rhetorical commitment to democracy. Whether the gap between words and deeds should or can be closed or narrowed is a complex question, since a sudden move from state managed liberalization to democracy could open the door to Islamist power."

The Collins Center Update Volume 7, Issue 3: April-June 2005 Professor Doug Campbel, Professor Bert Tussing, Dr. Kent Hughes Butts, Colonel Eugene Thompson, Professor James Kievit, Colonel Ken Smith, Mr. Bill Waddell, Professor Bert Tussing Collins Center Update by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership

Budget Policy, Deficits, and Defense: A Fiscal Framework for Defense Planning Dr Dennis S Ippolito Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The transformation of the U.S. military is entering a critical stage. The Department of Defense is initiating the most far-reaching changes in its worldwide bases and deployments since the 1950s. Parallel efforts to consolidate domestic bases and defense facilities are likely as well, now that the 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Commission has begun its work. And the Quadrennial Defense Review currently underway could have a profound impact on the size and shape of future forces."

The New RC: Will it Please Anyone? Dr Dallas D Owens Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "To their credit, the Army National Guard (ARNG) and the Army Reserve (USAR) have proposed sweeping changes to make their components capable of meeting future Army requirements. Predictions for those future requirements come from a variety of Department of Defense (DoD) offices and envision a near- to mid-term strategic environment requiring constant mobilization at levels less than, but near, those currently experienced. In turn, the ARNG and USAR know they cannot meet that need unless significant changes are made to their force structure, training, and mobilization process. Central to their proposed changes is the notion of a rotational force."

Transformation and Strategic Surprise Dr Colin S Gray Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. Colin Gray takes a broad view of strategic surprise, and relates it to the current military transformation. He argues that the kind of strategic surprise to which the United States is most at risk and which is most damaging to our national security is the deep and pervasive connection between war and politics. Although America is usually superior at making war, it is far less superior in making peace out of war. Dr. Gray concludes that the current military transformation shows no plausible promise of helping to correct the long-standing U.S. weakness in the proper use of forces as an instrument of policy."

Disaster Preparedness: Anticipating the Worst Case Scenario Arthur L Bradshaw, Dr Kent H Butts, Prof Bernard F Griffard Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "South Asia, geologically speaking, is a very dynamic region. Its northern boundaries follow the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian Plates, while its southern edge is contained within the Ring of Fire. Although the major collision of continents that began the formation of the Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau occurred 50 million years ago, South Asia is still a seismically active area. Over the last century it has experienced eighteen earthquakes with a magnitude greater than 6.0. Approximately every 70 years the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal experiences such a seismic event. More immediately, it is estimated that 350,000 lives were lost and potentially millions left homeless in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand from the 9.0 earthquake and resulting tsunami that occurred off Indonesia on December 26, 2004. "

Golden Spear Task Force Meeting and Initial Planning Conference Mr Scott T Forster Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) hosted the Golden Spear Task Force Meeting and Initial Planning Conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 14-17 February 2005. The Golden Spear National Delegates, designated as National Focal Point (NFP) members, were present from Kenya, Burundi, Egypt, Seychelles, Ethiopia, and Uganda while U.S. participation included USCENTCOM, United States European Command (USEUCOM), National Defense University (NDU) African Centre for Strategic Studies (ACSS), and the U.S. Army War College."

Network Enabled Operations in Operation Iraqi Freedom: Initial Impressions Dennis M Murphy Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The first Gulf War was conducted with legacy systems straddling the industrial and emergent information age. The major combat operations phase of Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF), on the other hand, put into practice information age constructs and theory for the first time in warfare and was an impressive success in its speed and lethality. The impact of that network enabled campaign (often referred to as Network Centric Warfare) is the topic of a study conducted by the Center for Strategic Leadership, U.S. Army War College and commissioned by the Office of Force Transformation, U.S. Department of Defense. The study will be completed by the fall of 2005, but first drafts of the study hint at valuable operational and strategic insights."

U.S. Southern Command Environmental Security Training Workshop Dr Kent H Butts, COL Jeffrey C Reynolds, Mr Alex Sonski Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The United States Southern Command (USSOUTHCOM) Theater Security Cooperation Program for Central America reached a new level of success with the completion of the Environmental Security Training Workshop in Alajuela, Costa Rica. The seven-day conference graduated 30 military, police, and civilian agency professionals from seven Central American countries in a ceremony attended by regional defense and environmental ministers. This “train the trainer” workshop is the culmination of a nearly decade-long SOUTHCOM, Department of Defense (DOD), and U.S. Army War College Center for Strategic Leadership (CSL) Environmental Security Program."