Middle East & North Africa

Turkey's New Regional Security Role: Implications for the United States Dr Richard Weitz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Since the Cold War era, when the United States began heavily investing in Turkey’s military and defense operations, the United States and Turkey have enjoyed a fruitful and mutually beneficial relationship. Because of Turkey’s geographic location, political stability, and recent economic success, the country has served as a strategic ally in U.S. foreign policy. The Arab uprisings in particular have challenged the Turkish-U.S. partnership. For a country that was already struggling to balance its position as a regional power with the imperative of maintaining good relations with its Western allies, the increasing instability in the region has forced Ankara to rely more on the United States than it would prefer. Although the Syrian conflict has underscored to Turkey the value of its security ties with the United States, the war has also exposed deep differences between the two countries on fundamental issues. While presently partially buried, these differences could easily rise to the surface in coming years."

Revival of Political Islam in the Aftermath of Arab Uprisings: Implications for the Region and Beyond Dr Mohammed El-Katiri Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As part of the radical political changes that have affected a number of Arab countries over the past 4 years, the toppling of regimes and the organization of the first fair and free elections in several Arab states have allowed Islamist parties to rise to power. This highly visible political trend has caused mixed reactions, both within these countries and internationally. Prior to the Arab Spring, most countries in the region banned Islamist movements from forming political parties. For decades, members of such movements were jailed, tortured, and exiled from their home countries. Even in those states where Islamist political parties were allowed, they had limited freedom and were under the scrutiny of the regimes, as was, for example, the Moroccan Justice and Development Party."

Democratization and Instability in Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus Dr Robert Nalbandov Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This manuscript analyzes the interconnections between the democratic institutionalization of the newly independent states using the examples of Ukraine, Georgia, and Belarus, their political (in)stability, and economic development and prosperity. By introducing the concept of regime mimicry into the field of public administration, the author expands the epistemological frameworks of the democratization school to the phenomenon of political culture. Successes and failures of the democratic institutionalization processes in these countries largely depend on the ways their institutional actors reacted to internal and external disturbances of their domestic political, economic, and cultural environments. While Georgia’s political culture revealed the highest degree of flexibility in accepting the externally proposed institutional frameworks and practices, the bifurcate political culture in Ukraine impeded its democratic institutionalization, while the rigid political culture in Belarus completely stalled the process of institutional transformations."

Soldiers of Misfortune? Dr Thomas R Mockaitis Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph examines the role of security contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan. From analysis of these two missions, it draws broad lessons from which it derives concrete recommendations to improve the conduct of further missions. Rather than do away with PMSCs altogether, the author recommends limiting their roles, providing better oversight of their activities, and improving legal accountability for their wrong doing. This monograph will be of interest to Soldiers and policymakers engaged in the difficult task of planning and conducting contingency operations."

From War to Deterrence? Israel-Hezbollah Conflict Since 2006 Dr Jean-Loup Samaan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah has generated a vast amount of academic and military studies, including a number from the Strategic Studies Institute. Specifically, authors have tried to identify the new patterns of warfare through this conflict and sometimes have even called it the first illustration of “hybrid war.” This new monograph by Dr. Jean-Loup Samaan does not look at the war itself but rather at its aftermath, both in Israel and Lebanon. It starts from an obvious paradox: Despite the regional turmoil and the absence of a settlement between Israel and Hezbollah, stability has prevailed since 2006. While over the same time frame the Middle East has been experiencing one of its most unpredictable periods in the last decades, the border area between Israel and Lebanon has remained quiet."

The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq Dr Azeem Ibrahim Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other salafist-jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas its controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq-based Islamic State in Iraq and Syria) and there are indications of limits to al-Qaeda’s ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles."

SOLLIMS Sampler - Overcoming "Challenges & Spoilers" with "Unity & Resolve" Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Overcoming “challenges and spoilers” within conflict-affected nations is a demanding endeavor. Stability operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, the Philippines, and multiple nations of Africa have shown that bringing lasting peace/stability to troubled nations – plagued by warlords, extremists, and paramilitaries – is never easy. These have proven to be highly complex operations requiring an extensive understanding of the environment, an extensive understanding of the “challenges and spoilers” within the environment, and an extensive understanding of their connections to 3rd party nations/states/actors."

Turkey-Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal From Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map? Mr Bill Park Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The withdrawal of U.S. combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 left behind a set of unresolved problems in the relationship between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and the Federal Government in Baghdad—notably relating to the disputed boundaries of the KRG, and the extent of its autonomy. Tensions have since been compounded by the discovery of significant quantities of oil and gas in the KRG area, and Erbil’s pursuit of an energy policy independent of and in opposition to Baghdad. Turkey, uneasy with the increasingly sectarian and authoritarian flavor of the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad, has since moved closer to the KRG, not least with respect to energy issues. This has deepened Turkish-Iraqi tensions still further. "

Post-2014 Afghanistan Wargame Analysis Dr Richard L Winslow War Game Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Afghanistan Futures Wargame conducted 14-15 January 2014 brought together specialists with expertise on Afghanistan, China, India, Iran and Pakistan, international relations and national security affairs from academia, government and private think-tanks to consider U.S. policy options for Afghanistan beyond 2014."