Middle East & North Africa

Prospects for Iran's New Direction Mr Keir Giles Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "At the end of September 2014, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani made his second appearance at the United Nations General Assembly in New York. His previous visit, in September 2013, had seen the first telephone conversation between a U.S. President and an Iranian leader since 1979. Despite the domestic controversy it caused in Iran, the fact that this was possible was indicative of the significant changes in Iranian foreign policy that had already taken place since Rouhani’s election as Iranian president, replacing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

Assessing Egyptian Public Support for Security Crackdowns in the Sinai Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Mr. Gregory Aftandilian examines Egypt’s public support for the Egyptian government’s security crackdowns in the Sinai where terrorist groups have undertaken violent attacks against security forces and foreign tourists and have even taken their fight to the Egyptian mainland. Although the leadership of these terrorist groups appear to be from mainland Egypt (those living along the Nile River and in the Nile Delta region), much of the rank and file appear to be disaffected Bedouin youth in the Sinai who have become susceptible to the entreaties of the terrorists..."

Regionalizing East Mediterranean Gas: Energy Security, Stability, and the U.S. Role Ms Laura El-Katiri, Dr Mohammed El-Katiri Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In recent years the distribution of the world’s exploitable energy reserves has shifted markedly. One major change is the discovery of substantial gas deposits offshore the Levant. But while these deposits have the potential to revolutionize the economies of the net energy importers, Cyprus, Lebanon, and Israel, they also bring into sharp focus long-running disputes over maritime boundaries and sovereignty. In short, these deposits provide yet another cause for conflict in an already deeply troubled region. This monograph explores both the positive and negative implications of the Eastern Mediterranean’s new gas reserves for the region, and the implications of both for U.S. interests. It combines the recognized expertise of two researchers with long experience in regional and energy studies, respectively. Their conclusion is that the management of these new energy resources is likely to influence significantly the relationships among the states in the region, particularly between Israel and its neighbors, including the Palestinian Territories. "

SOLLIMS Sampler - Reconstruction and Development Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "This report provides eight lessons from the SOLLIMS database that highlight the importance of discussing, dissecting, and analyzing these difficult issues of Reconstruction and Development – and the greater need for crafting solutions/improvements/frameworks for the benefit of future missions."

Stepping Up: Burden Sharing by NATO's Newest Members Dr Joel R Hillison Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In August 2003, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) took control of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) mission in Afghanistan. At the time, many European allies were disgruntled with the United States over the war in Iraq. Some allies' also felt snubbed by the U.S. decision to act unilaterally in Afghanistan in the aftermath of the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. Yet, 12 years later, the Alliance was still involved in the NATO mission in Afghanistan. All 28 NATO allies persevered in the face of intensified fighting in Afghanistan and growing domestic political and fiscal pressures..."

The Role of Leadership in Transitional States: The Cases of Lebanon, Israel-Palestine Dr Anastasia Filippidou Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In this book, Dr. Anastasia Filippidou reviews the main leadership theories in order to set the foundations for analysis of asymmetric leadership in transitional processes. The report also examines the different leadership types and highlights that, with the exception possibly of toxic leadership, it is difficult, if not impossible, to determine that a specific type is better than another in every situation. According to Dr. Filippidou, some leadership styles are likely to be more effective in certain situations, and that a really effective leader is one who is able to determine the context of the situation and use the most effective leadership behavior required at the time. "

Tribal Militias: An Effective Tool to Counter Al-Qaida and Its Affiliates? Dr Norman Cigar Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Despite over a decade of open war, dealing with Al-Qaida and its affiliates in the Middle East is likely to remain a concern for the foreseeable future and will pose a challenge requiring the use of any tool that is likely to be effective in meeting the threat. Most of the local societies in which Al-Qaida has operated in the Middle East and Africa after September 11, 2001, have a predominantly tribal character or at least have a strong tribal component (Iraq, Yemen, Libya, Syria, Somalia, Mali, and Sinai). Developing effective tools to counter Al-Qaida’s continuing presence in that social environment, therefore, is a priority and requires understanding Al-Qaida’s critical vulnerabilities when it operates in those societies and developing the means to counter Al-Qaida’s efforts."

Strategic Insights: The U.S. Foray Into The Levant Sami G. Hajjar Article by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Levant is caught up in a web of political, social, and economic problems that seem to be the work of the hidden hand of the devil. The U.S. Air Force, and those of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Jordan are actively bombing positions of the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS by substituting “Syria” for “Levant”)—an immediate and critical component of the Barack Obama administration’s strategy to “degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL through a comprehensive and sustained counterterrorism strategy..."

Maneuvering the Islamist-Secularist Divide in the Arab World: How the United States Can Preserve its Interests and Values in an Increasingly Polarized Environment Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Mr. Gregory Aftandilian examines why the Islamist-secularist divide in such Arab countries as Egypt and Tunisia has become so intense and polarizing and what can be done, from the perspective of U.S. policy, to mitigate such divisions and preserve U.S. interests and values. He demonstrates that having Islamist parties in dominant positions in Arab societies often provokes a backlash from secular elements because the latter see the Islamists as threatening their social freedoms, which leads to unrest. For countries beginning the transitory process from authoritarianism to democracy, Aftandilian recommends that the United States press for a broad governing coalition and a delay in holding elections, similar to what took place in Italy and France toward the end of World War II and which aided the moderate parties. Such practices would allow secular-liberal forces the opportunity to build their political parties and compete with Islamist parties."