Middle East & North Africa

 
  •  2012-13 Key Strategic Issues List

    2012-13 Key Strategic Issues List

    2012-13 Key Strategic Issues List Dr Antulio J Echevarria II Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press Unlike other lists that generally reflect issues which are operational or tactical in nature, the focus of the Key Strategic Issues List is strategic. The spotlight is, in other words, on those items that senior Army and Department of Defense leaders should consider in providing military advice and formulating military strategy. At present, the U.S. military is engaged in a changing situation in Iraq and an increasing presence in Afghanistan, as well as efforts to restore balance in force sizing and structure.
    • Published On: 8/1/2012
  •  Peace & Stability Journal, Volume 2, Issue 4

    Peace & Stability Journal, Volume 2, Issue 4

    Peace & Stability Journal, Volume 2, Issue 4 Mister Robert C Browne Peace and Stability Journal by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Today, a population’s expectations of the state for “security” are greater than national defense and protection from unlawful use of force internally. Expectations also include the social freedoms of economic opportunity, employment, education, health care, intellectual freedom, justice, and social mobility. Cultural form may vary by state, but the parameters of a modern social contract are clear and you need to look no further than the Arab Spring to see it..."
    • Published On: 7/9/2012
  •  Disjointed Ways, Disunified Means: Learning from America's Struggle to Build an Afghan Nation

    Disjointed Ways, Disunified Means: Learning from America's Struggle to Build an Afghan Nation

    Disjointed Ways, Disunified Means: Learning from America's Struggle to Build an Afghan Nation COL Lewis G Irwin Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute Remarkably ambitious in its audacity and scope, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) irregular warfare and “nation-building” mission in Afghanistan has struggled to meet its nonmilitary objectives by most tangible measures. Put directly, the alliance and its partners have fallen short of achieving the results needed to create a stable, secure, democratic, and self-sustaining Afghan nation, a particularly daunting proposition given Afghanistan’s history and culture, the region’s contemporary circumstances, and the fact that no such country has existed there before. Furthermore, given the central nature of U.S. contributions to this NATO mission, these shortfalls also serve as an indicator of a serious American problem as well. Specifically, inconsistencies and a lack of coherence in U.S. Government strategic planning processes and products, as well as fundamental flaws in U.S. Government structures and systems for coordinating and integrating the efforts of its various agencies, are largely responsible for this adverse and dangerous situation.
    • Published On: 5/1/2012
  •  The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus

    The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus

    The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The following conclusions are drawn from this analysis: 1. There is an emerging post-unipolar world. Now the United States is not the only global center, as it was during the first years of the post-Cold War era. Nor do just two superpowers—the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics—now define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several centers of power. This provides the opportunity for small states such as Belarus to move from one center of power to another or to engage in a sort of geopolitical gamesmanship. 2. During the last 10 years or so, Belarus moved from Russia to the European Union (EU) and back. At the same time, it engaged in relationships with Iran and China. While relationships with Russia and the EU have not been stable, this is not the case with China and Iran. Here, Belarus has always maintained a good relationship, especially in the case of China. This is demonstrated by the increasing role of Asia in the geopolitical arrangements of the present, and will be even more so in the future."
    • Published On: 5/1/2012
  •  Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions

    Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions

    Lessons of the Iraqi De-Ba'athification Program for Iraq's Future and the Arab Revolutions Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The presence of U.S. combat troops in Iraq has now come to an end, and the lessons of that conflict for the United States and other nations will be debated for some time to come. It is now widely understood that the post-invasion policy of de-Ba’athification, as practiced, had numerous unintended consequences that made building Iraqi civil society especially difficult following the U.S.-led invasion. The U.S. approach to this policy is often assessed as having underestimated both the dangers of increased sectarianism in Iraq and the need for strong efforts to manage ethnic-sectarian divisions. The Iraqi government’s approach to de-Ba’athification was, nevertheless, much more problematic due to its openly biased and sectarian nature. However well-intentioned, de-Ba’athification originally was as a concept, in practice it had a number of serious problems. These problems intensified and became more alarming as the de-Ba’athification process became increasingly dominated by the Iraqis and American oversight over that program gradually evaporated. At that time, it came to be viewed as an instrument of revenge and collective punishment by both the Iraqis that administered de-Ba’athification and those that were targeted by these policies. "
    • Published On: 5/1/2012
  •  War, Law and Order, Case Study: Australian Whole-of-Government

    War, Law and Order, Case Study: Australian Whole-of-Government

    War, Law and Order, Case Study: Australian Whole-of-Government COL Marcus Fielding PKSOI Paper by US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "This paper begins with a description of an Australian Special Forces raid in Afghanistan where civilians were killed and wounded. The subsequent White Paper prompted several questions...To answer these questions, this paper examines how the Australian Government can assist another state government to restore and maintain public security by developing capacity in its security and criminal justice sectors."
    • Published On: 5/1/2012
  •  Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict

    Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict

    Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the recent history of organizational change in the Russian airborne forces (VDV). In particular, it looks at how the VDV has changed since the end of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008. The VDV, a force much admired in the Russian news media and society, has, in fact, escaped fairly unscathed during the comprehensive reform of the Russian army more generally over the last few years. In large part this has been because of the personality of the current head of the VDV, Lieutenant General Vladimir Shamanov."
    • Published On: 12/1/2011
  •  The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security

    The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security

    The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Saudi Arabia and Iran have often behaved as serious rivals for influence in the Middle East, especially the Gulf area, since at least Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War. While both nations define themselves as Islamic, the differences between their foreign policies could hardly be more dramatic. In most respects, Saudi Arabia is a regional status quo power, while Iran often seeks revolutionary change throughout the Gulf area and the wider Middle East with varying degrees of intensity. Saudi Arabia also has strong ties with Western nations, while Iran views the United States as its most dangerous enemy. Perhaps the most important difference between the two nations is that Saudi Arabia is a conservative Sunni Muslim Arab state, while Iran is a Shi’ite state with senior politicians who often view their country as the defender and natural leader of Shi’ites throughout the region. The rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran has been reflected in the politics of a number of regional states where these two powers exercise influence."
    • Published On: 12/1/2011
  •  Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy

    Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy

    Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-Carnegie Council conference connected with the Council’s U.S. Global Engagement Program. In this case, the engagement in question is with Russia, and this monograph specifically addressed the issues of how those aspects of the reset policy with Moscow that concern arms control and proliferation are proceeding. It duly addresses the question of whether further reductions in strategic offensive weapons are likely anytime soon, i.e., is it possible to go beyond the parameters in the recently signed and so-called New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) treaty with respect to reductions. Other critical issues involve the issues of missile defenses that Moscow vehemently opposes and the question of tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wishes to have Russia reduce. "
    • Published On: 11/1/2011
  •  Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations

    Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations

    Presidential Succession Scenarios in Egypt and Their Impact on U.S.-Egyptian Strategic Relations Mr Gregory Aftandilian Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The momentous events in Egypt since January 25, 2011, have focused the world’s attention on that critical country. Mostly young, pro-democracy activists appear to have successfully challenged Egypt’s authoritarian government and its long-time leader. President Hosni Mubarak has been driven from office and is reportedly in poor health. Hence, regime change is virtually certain. The Egyptian military, long a major power broker, gained popular support for its restrained reaction to the uprisings of January-February 2011 and currently (July 2011) the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, leads the nation pending promised elections in the autumn. However, recent events suggest that the military may be reluctant to relinquish power fully, and popular unrest against it is rising. Thus, most scenarios discussed in this paper, or variations thereof, are still very possible."
    • Published On: 10/1/2011
  •  The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations

    The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations

    The Afghanistan Question and the Reset in U.S.-Russian Relations Dr Richard J Krickus Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "U.S. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has said that the ability of the United States and Russia to cooperate in Afghanistan will be a solid test of their reset in relations. That proposition is the thesis of this monograph. Many analysts in both countries would agree with this assessment, but a significant number of them believe a fruitful reset is implausible."
    • Published On: 10/1/2011
  •  2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List

    2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List

    2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List Antulio J. Echevarria II Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) is published annually for the purpose of making students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are, or should be, of special importance to the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army. The list is a compilation of input from the faculty at the U.S. Army War College, as well as from civilian and military experts across the field of defense studies. The topics reflect ongoing as well as anticipated strategic concerns, each of which is revised as the changing security environment warrants. This year has seen immense political and social changes sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. It has also seen important strategic and tactical successes in the war against al Qaeda..."
    • Published On: 9/19/2011
  •  Assessing the Strategic Environment: Developing Critical Thinking Skills at the Ethiopian Defense Command and Staff College

    Assessing the Strategic Environment: Developing Critical Thinking Skills at the Ethiopian Defense Command and Staff College

    Assessing the Strategic Environment: Developing Critical Thinking Skills at the Ethiopian Defense Command and Staff College Prof Bernard F Griffard Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "A government’s failure to understand the impact of global variables on the domestic environment can result in major destabilizing events. Emperor Tewodros II of Abyssinia (Ethiopia) learned this lesson the hard way. In 1862, after a snub by the British Government, the Emperor took the British Consul and other Europeans hostage to pressure the Crown to meet his request for equipment and training support. Being a somewhat impatient ruler, he also detained the British delegation sent to negotiate the initial hostages’ release. Because Britain’s ruling Liberal Party was reluctant to engage in “imperial adventures,” the hostages were still in loco Abyssinia into 1867."
    • Published On: 7/18/2011
  •  Examining Military Governance as a Part of Professional Military Education

    Examining Military Governance as a Part of Professional Military Education

    Examining Military Governance as a Part of Professional Military Education Mr Brent C Bankus, Ms Lorelei E W Coplen, Prof James O Kievit Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "After the capture of Baghdad in 2003, the expectation was that an Iraqi entity would quickly step forward to begin to fill the role of government in the territory formerly ruled by Saddam Hussein. Instead, there was a power vacuum which the United States – and in particular the United States military – had to fill. Similarly, in Afghanistan, despite the relatively quick identification of Hamid Karzai as the “designated” national leader, it also became clear that the new national government lacked many of the essential capabilities required to actually implement good governance. Again, despite the clear preference of many of today’s military officers to have some other entity (whether of the U.S. government, the United Nations, or even non-government private contractors) be responsible for doing so, that responsibility initially fell largely, if not exclusively, on U.S. military commanders. Even though the U.S. military, especially the U.S. Army, has had a long history of military governance activities, many of those commanders felt unprepared and/or that it was 'not really my job.'"
    • Published On: 6/15/2011
  •  The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications

    The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications

    The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications Dr Ariel Cohen, COL Robert E Hamilton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia launched the war against Georgia in August 2008 for highly valued strategic and geopolitical objectives, which included de facto annexation of Abkhazia, weakening or toppling the Mikheil Saakashvili regime, and preventing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement. The Russian politico-military elites had focused on Georgia since the days of the presidency of Eduard Shevardnadze, whom they blamed, together with Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR) Communist Party Central Committee Secretary Alexander Yakovlev, for the dissolution of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe and the dismantlement of the Soviet Union itself."
    • Published On: 6/1/2011
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