Middle East & North Africa

Arab Threat Perceptions and the Future of the U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East Dr W Andrew Terrill Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The threat perceptions of many Arab states aligned with the United States have changed significantly as a result of such dramatic events as the 2011 U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq, the emergence and then fading of the Arab Spring, the rise of Iranian power and Tehran’s nuclear agreement with key world powers, the Egyptian revolution and counterrevolution, and the development of civil wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya. A particularly worrisome development and expansion has been the dramatic rise of the “Islamic State” (IS) organization which has seized considerable tracts of territory in Iraq and Syria and inspired terrorists throughout the region. Elsewhere in the region, the 2013 election of the pragmatic and statesmanlike Iranian president Hassan Rouhani is viewed by some Arab states as a potential opportunity but also a danger since the new Iranian government has a potentially shrewder and more effective president and cabinet than seen during the Ahmadinejad years. There have also been some notable differences that have developed between the United States and its Arab allies over how to address these issues and most especially Iranian regional ambitions."

Strategic Insights: The Russian Intervention and the Internal Dynamics of Syria W. Andrew Terrill Article by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Syrian civil war began in March 2011 and has claimed nearly 250,000 lives so far. After over 4 years of internal fighting, the Kremlin has decided to expand its role in this conflict by moving combat aircraft and some ground troops to Syria to support the Bashar al-Assad government. These actions seem like a clear prelude to a direct Russian combat role, although the scope of such an effort is not yet clear. It has started with a limited number of air strikes against the opposition forces fighting Assad..."

SOLLIMS Sampler – Foreign Humanitarian Assistance Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Foreign Humanitarian Assistance operations typically involve a wide array of participants – US Government civilian and military organizations, multinational partners, nongovernmental organizations, intergovernmental actors, and host nation government authorities. Their various contributions can be vital for saving lives and relieving/reducing human suffering within an affected host nation."

SOLLIMS Sampler – Cross-Cutting Guidelines for Stability Operations (July 2015) Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "The seven cross-cutting principles for stability operations are applicable at the individual, organizational, and systemic levels and are pertinent throughout planning, conduct, assessment, and transitions. These principles have proven their worth across the range of peace and stability operations and across diverse operational environments, whether in Afghanistan, Iraq, the Horn of Africa, the Sahel, Southeast Asia, or Central America – as evidenced in countless lessons learned in the SOLLIMS database. What follows is a representative sample of lessons learned – highlighting key elements of each of the seven cross-cutting principles: Host Nation Ownership and Capacity, Political Primacy, Legitimacy, Unity of Effort, Security, Conflict Transformation, and Regional Engagement."

The Strategic Lessons Unlearned from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan: Why the ANSF Will Not Hold, and the Implications for the U.S. Army in Afghanistan Dr M Chris Mason Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Military personnel who have experience in Afghanistan, Iraq, or Vietnam, as well as senior leaders and military historians alike, will find this book by Dr. Chris Mason thought-provoking and useful. Dr. Mason examines indigenous personnel issues at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels of war and uses empirical data and exhaustive research to argue that all three wars were lost before the first shots were fired—not on the battlefield, but at the strategic level of war."

Iraq’s Shia Warlords and Their Militias: Political and Security Challenges and Options Dr Norman Cigar Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As America’s de facto co-belligerents who often share the same battlespace in the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the presence and activity of Iraq’s Shia warlords and their militias have an impact on U.S. interests and policies at both the strategic and operational levels. The practical objective of this monograph is to provide a better understanding of the Shia militia phenomenon and to highlight the factors with which U.S. policymakers and U.S. Army planners and commanders will have to deal with respect to operations in Iraq. "

From Frozen Ties to Strategic Engagement: U.S.-Iranian Relationship in 2030 Mr Roman Muzalevsky Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Locked in a confrontational stance lasting more than 3 decades, the United States and Iran have failed repeatedly to transform their hostile relationship. The ongoing nuclear talks, however, offer better prospects of not only addressing Iran’s nuclear program challenges, but also developing a mutually beneficial strategic relationship between the United States and Iran in the long term. Why are these prospects better today? According to Mr. Roman Muzalevsky, the coming to power of new presidential administrations in both countries, the additional sanctions under the Barack Obama administration, game-changing regional trends, as well as U.S.-Iranian economic and security cooperation imperatives, have all facilitated an interim nuclear deal, prompting talks of a promising start in U.S.-Iranian ties that, if cultivated, could turn into a strategic détente by 2030."

Another Brick in the Wall: The Israeli Experience in Missile Defense Dr Jean-Loup Samaan Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Over the last years, missile defense has resurfaced as a major feature of the strategic debate in the United States and among its close allies. In 2010, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Summit of Heads of State saw intense discussions among transatlantic partners on the strategic value of missile defense alongside the traditional deterrence means of the Alliance. But if these transatlantic debates are for the most part still speculative, for many years, one close American ally has already faced the concrete and immediate challenge of defending its territory against missiles and rockets—Israel."

Strengthening Statehood Capabilities for Successful Transitions in the Middle East / North Africa Region Dr Mohammed El-Katiri Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In this monograph, Dr. El-Katiri focuses on the variety of challenges that face reform attempts in the post revolution Arab countries. He examines underlying factors that have prevented new political elites and post-revolution institutions from successfully implementing essential reforms, and how these failures have affected the building of their political legitimacy. He concludes with a series of specific policy recommendations, with the aim of preventing further deterioration to the detriment of U.S. interests."