Middle East & North Africa

Coercing Fluently: The Grammar of Coercion in the Twenty-first Century Dr C. A. Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "To illustrate the logic and grammar of coercion, this analysis relies on decision-theory methods, such as game theory, that examine the strategic decision-making process in interactions with adversaries and partners. The intent here is not to offer predictive models of rational-actor behavior. Rather, the intent is to use game-theory and similar approaches to understand how coercion works better. This analysis considers competitive interactions between actors that have discrete and qualifiable, if not quantifiable, preferences and who behave rationally, though this analysis acknowledges the behavior that is considered rational is frequently informed by nonrational social, cultural, and psychological factors. Considering these competitive interactions allows one to identify “rules of thumb” that can orient and guide actors as they compete."

A Hard Look at Hard Power: Assessing the Defense Capabilities of Key US Allies and Security Partners—Second Edition Mr Gary J Schmitt Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In a world where the United States faces two major revisionist powers—Russia and China—and additional security threats from Iran, North Korea, and jihadist terrorists, a critical edge for the United States is its global network of allies and strategic partners. As the 2018 National Defense Strategy notes, 'Alliances and partnerships are crucial to our strategy, providing a durable asymmetric strategic advantage that no competitor or rival can match.' "

Rise and Fall? The Rise and Fall of ISIS in Libya Dr Azeem Ibrahim Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This report argues exploiting the military and political defeat of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Libya to eradicate the group completely from the country and weaken its capacity to act elsewhere in North and sub-Saharan Africa is now possible. In addition, the Libyan conflict continues to have consequences for the political stability of Europe via the pressure the migration flows are putting on the political infrastructure of the continent. In turn, this instability has implications for the United States’ European strategy, both insofar as commercial interests are concerned and in US capacity to contain Russian assertiveness on the edges of NATO territory."

Death by a Thousand Cuts: Weakening an Insurgency through a National Reconciliation Program Three Case Studies: Malaya, Vietnam, and Iraq Dr. Raymond A. Millen PKSOI Paper by US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "Death by a Thousand Cuts explores the application of national reconciliation programs to undermine insurgencies from within and lay the groundwork for stability in the post-conflict period. Dr. Raymond A. Millen presents three case studies—Malaya, South Vietnam, and Iraq—for his examination of national reconciliation programs. Such programs have received little attention after the Vietnam conflict, so this study provides insights of particular interest for US assistance to countries suffering from an insurgency."

Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge Dr Jean-Loup Samaan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph explores the emerging challenge of nonstate actors’ anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategies and their implications for the United States and its allies. This monograph starts from one major development: the historical monopoly of states over precision-guided munitions has eroded, and this evolution eventually challenges the ability of the most advanced militaries to operate in certain environments. Questioning the type of strategy that nonstate actors may implement as they gain greater access to advanced military technology, the research argues some of these groups increasingly lean toward A2/AD strategies. The analysis focuses on two regions, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, where case studies include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen, and separatist groups in Ukraine."

Professionalizing the Iraqi Army: US Engagement after the Islamic State Dr C. A. Pfaff Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "While the US intelligence community worries about the emergence of “Da’esh 2.0,” the US security cooperation community has to worry about the development of the “Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) 4.0” that will have to fight Da’esh and meet a broad range of other security and defense requirements. Here, the “4.0” refers to the facts that this is not the United States’ first attempt to assist the Iraqis in building their defense capacity and the United States is not the first security partner to try. Britain and the Soviet Union also took their turns developing Iraqi military capabilities, both with similar results."

Turkey and the United States on the Brink: Implications for NATO and the US-Turkish Strategic and Military Partnership Dr. Kamal A. Beyoghlow Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The US-Turkish strategic partnership established at the end of World War II reached its climax in the late eighties, and is at a dangerous crossroad. Such an outcome has had a devastating effect on Turkey’s relationship with other Western partners, especially NATO, which has been the backbone of America’s defense alliance since the start of the Cold War. This situation, if it continues, is likely to force the unraveling of NATO as a cohesive organization at a time when it is facing a myriad of collective global security challenges, particularly in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan—far beyond its traditional defensive posture on the European continent. All is not lost, however, and with more diligent diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue and compromises, US-Turkish relations can be salvaged."

Recommendations for Success in Afghanistan Dr M Chris Mason Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The group identified the four most important and challenging issues which the Resolute Support mission grapples with on a daily basis: (1) maintaining the equilibrium of power and control between the Government of Afghanistan and the Taliban at its current level; (2) bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table to begin peace talks with the Afghan Government; (3) getting Pakistan to curb its 17-year support to the Taliban; and, (4) start to roll back the pernicious dominance of opium production in the Afghan economy and its corrosive influence on national governance and state-building. "

Contemporary Chemical Weapons Use in Syria and Iraq by the Assad Regime and the Islamic State Dr Robert J Bunker Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Chemical weapons remain a component of the 21st-century battlefield even though the international community has attempted to ban them from the arsenals of both state and nonstate actors. They have been referred to as the poor man’s atomic bomb, as have biological weapons, another form of nonnuclear weapons of mass destruction. While chemical weapons do not have the destructive power of strategic—or even tactical—nuclear warheads, they are far easier to acquire or produce and are able to generate a terror factor even when their use is merely threatened."