Europe & Russia

Central Asia After 2014 Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers (the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a lesser degree) is becoming increasingly more visible as a key factor that will shape this region after the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. The papers collected here, presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) annual conference on Russia in 2012, go far to explain what the agenda for that rivalry is and how it is likely to influence regional trends after 2013. Therefore, these papers provide a vital set of insights into an increasingly critical area of international politics and security, especially as it is clear that the United States is reducing, but not totally withdrawing, its military establishment in Afghanistan and is seeking to consolidate long-term relationships with Central Asian states."

What Is Next for Mali? The Roots of Conflict and Challenges to Stability Dr Dona J Stewart Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In March 2012, the government of Mali, one of the most touted symbols of Africa’s democratic potential fell in a military-executed coup. At the same time, a 4-decade-old rebellion among Tuaregs seeking autonomy or independence reached new heights, fueled by weapons from Muammar Gadaffi’s fallen government and perhaps the belief that the Arab Spring could extend to northern Mali. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and their allies were quick to capitalize on the increasing chaos in a territory characterized by lack of government control and poverty and seized the major cities in the north. The imposition of a severe form of Islamic law and a growing food crisis sent the population fleeing south across Mali’s international borders. The French-led military intervention, Operation SERVAL, ousted the militants from the main cities in the north, but did not address the crisis’ underlying issues including the grievances that feed the Tuareg nationalist movement, the establishment of a civilian-led government in Mali, and the near- and long-term threats to food security. The eruption of this crisis also demands a critical look at the Sahel’s regional security framework, and the U.S. role in it. "

A Transatlantic Bargain for the 21st Century: The United States, Europe, and the Transatlantic Alliance Dr Ellen Hallams Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Dr. Ellen Hallams’s monograph explores the nature of the bargain that has framed relations between the United States and its NATO allies, and considers what the terms of a revised bargain might be. Debate over a revised bargain raises many important questions: What are the sources of Washington’s frustration with the Alliance? What are the implications of Washington’s increasing focus on the Asia-Pacific for Europe and NATO? What is the nature of Alliance burden sharing in the context of modern military operations? In what ways can America’s European allies and partners generate greater burden sharing? Dr. Hallams proposes that a truly strategic partnership between the United States, NATO, and the European Union should be at the heart of a revised bargain, one that casts aside Cold War constructs and approaches transatlantic relations with a new maturity and pragmatism."

The Security Concerns of the Baltic States as NATO Allies Dr James S Corum Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The end of the Cold War in the early-1990s signified a huge and very positive transformation in world politics. Nations that had been Warsaw Pact enemies for 5 decades became, almost overnight, allies of the West. Even nations that had been republics of the Soviet Union—the best examples being Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—moved immediately to become staunch Western allies. The full post-Cold War transformation was consummated in 2004 when the three formerly Soviet Baltic republics, along with some former Warsaw Pact nations, became new members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)."

Development of the Baltic Armed Forces in Light of Multinational Deployments Dr James S Corum Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Coalition operations have been an important part of U.S. warfighting in the last decade of conflict. In the Balkans, Iraq and Afghanistan coalition partners, especially from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) nations, have played an important role. Given the ongoing instability in several regions of the world, there is a strong possibility that in the near future the U.S. Armed Forces will again have to operate with allied coalition partners to help support or rebuild a country devastated by internal conflict."

Russian Interests in Sub-Saharan Africa Mr Keir Giles Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Competition for resources, political influence, and access to markets will continue to increase among global powers as finite resources continue to dwindle. Russia is fully aware of this and has begun to look outside established power centers such as Europe and the West toward Africa. Sub-Saharan Africa is a hub of undeveloped natural resources, a nest of conflict to fuel potential arms sales, and an area ripe for cultivation of political support for Russian interests on the world stage."

Return of the Balkans: Challenges to European Integration and U.S. Disengagement Mr Janusz Bugajski Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This Letort Paper assesses the prospects for further turbulence and conflict in the Western Balkans and weighs the implications for U.S. policy and for potential future military engagement. Although the region has slipped off the American radar screen in recent years, several unresolved disputes have the potential of escalating. This Paper systematically describes numerous causes of domestic and regional tensions and outlines a number of conflict scenarios."

Jihadist Cells and "IED" Capabilities in Europe: Assessing the Present and Future Threat to the West Dr Jeffrey M Bale Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Western military forces and security and intelligence agencies are justifiably concerned about two phenomena that continue to affect their ongoing asymmetric conflicts with jihadist terrorist organizations: 1) the increasing diffusion and application of expertise acquired by jihadists in fabricating “improvised explosive devices” (IEDs), and 2) the extent to which local jihadist cells in the West may or may not be connected to veteran terrorist groups and networks in other countries and regions. This monograph by Dr. Jeffrey M. Bale argues that these two issues are, in fact, interrelated. Using the March 2004 Madrid train bombings and the two failed July 2006 train bombings near Cologne as contrasting case studies, Bale argues that jihadist cells whose members are linked organizationally, logistically, or operationally to wider terrorist networks, especially ones comprising well-trained and battle-tested operatives, are much more likely to be able to acquire the levels of technical expertise needed to manufacture effective IEDs, carry out devastatingly successful single IED attacks, and perhaps even sustain longer-term IED bombing campaigns."

Russia's Homegrown Insurgency: Jihad in the North Caucasus Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The United States has had a bitter set of experiences with insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations, but it is by no means alone in having to confront such threats and challenges. Indeed, according to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the greatest domestic threat to Russia’s security is the ongoing insurgency in the North Caucasus. This insurgency grew out of Russia’s wars in Chechnya and has gone on for several years, with no end in sight. Yet it is hardly known in the West and barely covered even by experts. In view of this insurgency’s strategic importance and the fact that the U.S. military can and must learn for other contemporary wars, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) felt the need to bring this war to our readers’ attention and shed more light upon both sides, the Islamist (and nationalist) rebels and Russia, as they wage either an insurgency or counterinsurgency campaign."