Europe & Russia

Jihadist Cells and "IED" Capabilities in Europe: Assessing the Present and Future Threat to the West Dr Jeffrey M Bale Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Western military forces and security and intelligence agencies are justifiably concerned about two phenomena that continue to affect their ongoing asymmetric conflicts with jihadist terrorist organizations: 1) the increasing diffusion and application of expertise acquired by jihadists in fabricating “improvised explosive devices” (IEDs), and 2) the extent to which local jihadist cells in the West may or may not be connected to veteran terrorist groups and networks in other countries and regions. This monograph by Dr. Jeffrey M. Bale argues that these two issues are, in fact, interrelated. Using the March 2004 Madrid train bombings and the two failed July 2006 train bombings near Cologne as contrasting case studies, Bale argues that jihadist cells whose members are linked organizationally, logistically, or operationally to wider terrorist networks, especially ones comprising well-trained and battle-tested operatives, are much more likely to be able to acquire the levels of technical expertise needed to manufacture effective IEDs, carry out devastatingly successful single IED attacks, and perhaps even sustain longer-term IED bombing campaigns."

Russia's Homegrown Insurgency: Jihad in the North Caucasus Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The United States has had a bitter set of experiences with insurgencies and counterinsurgency operations, but it is by no means alone in having to confront such threats and challenges. Indeed, according to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the greatest domestic threat to Russia’s security is the ongoing insurgency in the North Caucasus. This insurgency grew out of Russia’s wars in Chechnya and has gone on for several years, with no end in sight. Yet it is hardly known in the West and barely covered even by experts. In view of this insurgency’s strategic importance and the fact that the U.S. military can and must learn for other contemporary wars, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) felt the need to bring this war to our readers’ attention and shed more light upon both sides, the Islamist (and nationalist) rebels and Russia, as they wage either an insurgency or counterinsurgency campaign."

How Nation-States Craft National Security Strategy Documents Dr Alan G Stolberg Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In some manner, shape, or form, every nation state in the international system has a national security strategy or strategies. These strategies are intended to guide the state as it makes its way through the labyrinth of challenges that every nation state faces in the 21st century. The strategy could represent the nation’s overall grand strategy or it could be a national security-related strategy for one particular issue, like force structure development for the armed forces. Strategy making is an art; not a science. Sometimes these strategies work and sometimes they do not. Some are effective and efficient as desired and others are less so..."

The Future of American Landpower: Does Forward Presence Still Matter? The Case of the Army in Europe Dr John R Deni Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this monograph, Dr. John R. Deni explores the utility of forward presence in Europe, placing the recent decisions—and, in particular, the arguments against forward presence—in the context of a decades-long tradition on the part of many political leaders, scholars, and others to mistakenly tie the forward-basing of U.S. forces to more equal defense burden sharing across the entire North Atlantic alliance. In assessing whether and how forward presence still matters in terms of protecting U.S. interests and achieving U.S. objectives, Dr. Deni bridges the gap between academics and practitioners by grounding his analysis in political science theory while illuminating how forward-basing yields direct, tangible benefits in terms of military operational interoperability..."

Russia and the Current State of Arms Control Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Arms control remains the central issue in U.S.-Russian relations. This is so for many reasons, not least of which are the respective capabilities of these two states and their consequent responsibility for preventing both nuclear proliferation and the outbreak of war between them. Thus the state of the bilateral relationship is usually directly proportional to the likelihood of their finding common ground on arms control. To the extent that they can find such ground, chances for an agreement on what have been the more intractable issues of regional security in Eurasia and the Third World grow, and the converse is equally true."

Perspectives on Russian Foreign Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The essays collected in this volume comprise a panel on Russian foreign policy that was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) annual Conference on Russia on September 26-27, 2011, held at Carlisle, PA. These chapters aimed at analyzing not just the day to day diplomacy, but some of the deeper structures of Russian foreign policy, both their material basis in actual policy and the cognitive structures or mentality that underlies it. This issue is now more important with the return of Vladimir Putin to the presidency of Russia and the fact that major transformations in international relations are occurring today across the globe and at an unprecedented pace."

Arms Control and European Security Dr Stephen J Blank, COL Louis H Jordan Jr Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "While much attention is always given to issues of strategic and nuclear arms control, the conventional arms control agenda remains something of a step-child. Nonetheless, in regards to European security, conventional arms control issues are of the utmost significance. Indeed, since Russia suspended its observance of the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty in 2007, there has already been one war in Europe, the Russo-Georgian war of 2008, and many subsequent rumors of war. Indeed, one could arguably claim that since that Russian suspension, progress on ensuring European security has stagnated, if not worse."

Can Russia Reform? Economic, Political, and Military Perspectives Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The nature of the Russian state and the economy it superintends raise more than academic questions, for if we understand the nature of the state and its subordinated economy, we can then form an accurate vision of what Russia’s overall policy and strategy will be. We may say, euphemistically, that the beginning of wisdom in understanding Russian policy and strategy is to grasp the answers to key questions concerning the nature of its political and economic processes. In line with that approach to understanding Russia, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is pleased to present the first volume of papers from its annual conference on Russia conducted on September 26-27, 2011. The resulting papers go straight to the heart of the most important questions concerning the nature of the state and the possibilities for its economic reform."

The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The following conclusions are drawn from this analysis: 1. There is an emerging post-unipolar world. Now the United States is not the only global center, as it was during the first years of the post-Cold War era. Nor do just two superpowers—the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics—now define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several centers of power. This provides the opportunity for small states such as Belarus to move from one center of power to another or to engage in a sort of geopolitical gamesmanship. 2. During the last 10 years or so, Belarus moved from Russia to the European Union (EU) and back. At the same time, it engaged in relationships with Iran and China. While relationships with Russia and the EU have not been stable, this is not the case with China and Iran. Here, Belarus has always maintained a good relationship, especially in the case of China. This is demonstrated by the increasing role of Asia in the geopolitical arrangements of the present, and will be even more so in the future."