Europe & Russia

BRIC in the Backyard: Brazil's Economic Rise and What it Means for the United States COL James K Rose Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "In today’s increasing globalized world there are several rapidly emerging market success stories that many economic and financial analysts are watching with great anticipation. Brazil is one of these of these geo-political risers and it is perhaps the most underestimated of the so-called BRIC countries. The term BRIC was coined by Jim O’Neill from the Wall Street giant Goldman-Sachs in 2003 and refers to the up and coming economic powerhouse nations around the globe and includes Brazil, Russia, India and China. The story behind Brazil’s economic growth is a remarkable tale and has multiple strategic implications for the United States as the two countries struggle to define their future bilateral relationship. The question of what Brazil’s rise means for the United States and what are the security implications for the hemisphere are significant."

Natural Gas as an Instrument of Russian State Power Mr Alexander Ghaleb Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The slow re-emergence of Russia as a world power despite its weak military force is of critical significance for the strategic interests of the United States in Europe. Since the Cold War, Russia has been perceived as a broken nation that no longer represents a threat to the North Atlantic Alliance. This monograph emphasizes that Russia overcame this major vulnerability by developing the capacity to use unilateral economic sanctions in the form of gas pricing and gas disruptions against many European North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states."

2011-2012 US Army War College Key Strategic Issues List Antulio J. Echevarria II Document by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The Key Strategic Issues List (KSIL) is published annually for the purpose of making students and other researchers aware of strategic topics that are, or should be, of special importance to the Department of Defense and the U.S. Army. The list is a compilation of input from the faculty at the U.S. Army War College, as well as from civilian and military experts across the field of defense studies. The topics reflect ongoing as well as anticipated strategic concerns, each of which is revised as the changing security environment warrants. This year has seen immense political and social changes sweep across North Africa and the Middle East. It has also seen important strategic and tactical successes in the war against al Qaeda..."

Russia in the Arctic Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Due to changes in climate and technology, the Arctic Ocean is becoming increasingly navigable. Since potentially enormous energy holdings have been discovered there, and the Arctic constitutes Russia’s northern coast, the area’s commercial significance adds to its preexisting strategic importance for the Russian Federation. During the Cold War, the High North theater held acute strategic significance as the bastion for Russia’s nuclear Northern Fleet. That significance, though diminished, still prevails. The Pacific side of the Arctic is becoming more important as China’s power grows. The mounting importance of the area as a source of energy and trade for Russia merely adds to the Chinese factor. Bearing these points in mind, beginning in 2007 the Russian government has made a noisy and demonstrative effort to assert its claims in the Arctic but has also negotiated with other Arctic stakeholders, most prominently Norway, with whom it signed a treaty in 2010."

Military Modernization and the Russian Ground Forces Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph examines the recent process of organizational change in the Russian ground forces. It begins by charting the whole post-Soviet military reform debate. This debate was dominated, on the one hand, by those seeking to make the armed forces more professional, flexible, and adroit—and thus better suited to the security demands of a major 21st-century power—and, on the other hand, by senior military figures wedded to the concepts of mass and a conscript-based military. It was actually only after the war with Georgia in 2008, and when military opposition was weakened, that change within the ground forces could begin in earnest. New command tiers were established, divisions became brigades, and the idea of absorbing professional soldiers into the ground forces was refined. The problems of generating a suitable corps of non-commissioned officers, of training suitable officers, and of marrying equipment to strategic need are all issues covered here. This work concludes with the thought that even though the changes being introduced in the ground forces look dramatic, they cannot be implemented overnight. The road towards fundamental change where Russia’s ground forces are concerned will be quite a long one."

The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications Dr Ariel Cohen, COL Robert E Hamilton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia launched the war against Georgia in August 2008 for highly valued strategic and geopolitical objectives, which included de facto annexation of Abkhazia, weakening or toppling the Mikheil Saakashvili regime, and preventing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement. The Russian politico-military elites had focused on Georgia since the days of the presidency of Eduard Shevardnadze, whom they blamed, together with Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR) Communist Party Central Committee Secretary Alexander Yakovlev, for the dissolution of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe and the dismantlement of the Soviet Union itself."

The European Campaign: Its Origins and Conduct Dr Clayton K S Chun, Dr Samuel J Newland Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since the end of World War II, there has been a stream of publications about the War in Europe, but despite the volume of literature, interest in the topic remains high. Given the significance of this conflict and the interest in this campaign, the Strategic Studies Institute offers a fresh look at the campaign in Europe. This publication begins with an examination of prewar planning for various contingencies, then moves to the origins of “Germany first” in American war planning. The authors then focus on the concept, favored by both George C. Marshall and Dwight D. Eisenhower, that the United States and its Allies had to conduct a cross-channel attack and undertake an offensive aimed at the heartland of Germany. Following the background provided in these initial chapters, the remainder of the book provides a comprehensive discussion outlining how the European Campaign was carried out."

Central Asian Security Trends: Views from Europe and Russia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The papers collected in this volume pertain to Central Asia. Indeed, they offer us two foreign views of the strategic situation evolving there—a Russian and a French analysis. For obvious reasons: the war in Afghanistan, proximity to major global actors, large energy holdings, and for less obvious reason, i.e., the possibility that domestic instability in one or more of these states could spread to other Muslim states as we now see in the Arab revolutions of 2011, Central Asia is an increasingly important and interesting strategic region. As such, it merits sustained critical attention and analysis of the sort we are presenting here and that we have presented in the past."

Promoting Joint Staff and Interagency Cooperation in the Armed Forces of Montenegro Prof Bernard F Griffard, Dr R Craig Nation Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Montenegro has existed as a sovereign principality since the Middle Ages. It successfully maintained independence from the Ottoman Empire, first as a theocracy ruled by bishop princes and later as a secular principality. National independence was interrupted at the close of World War I, when it was absorbed into the confederation that, in 1929, became the Kingdom of Yugoslavia. At the close of World War II, Montenegro became a constituent republic of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). It regained sovereignty in June 2006 on the basis of a national referendum which dissolved association with the rump Yugoslavia confederation of Serbia and Montenegro."