Europe & Russia

Can Russia Reform? Economic, Political, and Military Perspectives Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The nature of the Russian state and the economy it superintends raise more than academic questions, for if we understand the nature of the state and its subordinated economy, we can then form an accurate vision of what Russia’s overall policy and strategy will be. We may say, euphemistically, that the beginning of wisdom in understanding Russian policy and strategy is to grasp the answers to key questions concerning the nature of its political and economic processes. In line with that approach to understanding Russia, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is pleased to present the first volume of papers from its annual conference on Russia conducted on September 26-27, 2011. The resulting papers go straight to the heart of the most important questions concerning the nature of the state and the possibilities for its economic reform."

The Role of Small States in the Post-Cold War Era: The Case of Belarus Dr Dmitry Shlapentokh Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The following conclusions are drawn from this analysis: 1. There is an emerging post-unipolar world. Now the United States is not the only global center, as it was during the first years of the post-Cold War era. Nor do just two superpowers—the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics—now define the course of global events. The new multipolarity implies the presence of several centers of power. This provides the opportunity for small states such as Belarus to move from one center of power to another or to engage in a sort of geopolitical gamesmanship. 2. During the last 10 years or so, Belarus moved from Russia to the European Union (EU) and back. At the same time, it engaged in relationships with Iran and China. While relationships with Russia and the EU have not been stable, this is not the case with China and Iran. Here, Belarus has always maintained a good relationship, especially in the case of China. This is demonstrated by the increasing role of Asia in the geopolitical arrangements of the present, and will be even more so in the future."

Organizational Change in the Russian Airborne Forces: The Lessons of the Georgian Conflict Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph considers the recent history of organizational change in the Russian airborne forces (VDV). In particular, it looks at how the VDV has changed since the end of Russia’s conflict with Georgia in 2008. The VDV, a force much admired in the Russian news media and society, has, in fact, escaped fairly unscathed during the comprehensive reform of the Russian army more generally over the last few years. In large part this has been because of the personality of the current head of the VDV, Lieutenant General Vladimir Shamanov."

Russian Nuclear Weapons: Past, Present, and Future Dr Stephen J Blank Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute While the Cold War is long past, the importance of arms control in Russo-American relations and the related issue of nuclear weapons for Russia remain vital concerns. Indeed, without an appreciation of the multiple dimensions of the latter, progress in the former domain is inconceivable. With this in mind, the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) is very pleased to present the following essays, which were presented at a conference at the National Defense University on June 28, 2010.

Arms Control and Proliferation Challenges to the Reset Policy Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph was presented at the Strategic Studies Institute (SSI)-Carnegie Council conference connected with the Council’s U.S. Global Engagement Program. In this case, the engagement in question is with Russia, and this monograph specifically addressed the issues of how those aspects of the reset policy with Moscow that concern arms control and proliferation are proceeding. It duly addresses the question of whether further reductions in strategic offensive weapons are likely anytime soon, i.e., is it possible to go beyond the parameters in the recently signed and so-called New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) treaty with respect to reductions. Other critical issues involve the issues of missile defenses that Moscow vehemently opposes and the question of tactical or nonstrategic nuclear weapons, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) wishes to have Russia reduce. "

BRIC in the Backyard: Brazil's Economic Rise and What it Means for the United States COL James K Rose Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "In today’s increasing globalized world there are several rapidly emerging market success stories that many economic and financial analysts are watching with great anticipation. Brazil is one of these of these geo-political risers and it is perhaps the most underestimated of the so-called BRIC countries. The term BRIC was coined by Jim O’Neill from the Wall Street giant Goldman-Sachs in 2003 and refers to the up and coming economic powerhouse nations around the globe and includes Brazil, Russia, India and China. The story behind Brazil’s economic growth is a remarkable tale and has multiple strategic implications for the United States as the two countries struggle to define their future bilateral relationship. The question of what Brazil’s rise means for the United States and what are the security implications for the hemisphere are significant."

The Russian Military and the Georgia War: Lessons and Implications Dr Ariel Cohen, COL Robert E Hamilton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia launched the war against Georgia in August 2008 for highly valued strategic and geopolitical objectives, which included de facto annexation of Abkhazia, weakening or toppling the Mikheil Saakashvili regime, and preventing North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) enlargement. The Russian politico-military elites had focused on Georgia since the days of the presidency of Eduard Shevardnadze, whom they blamed, together with Soviet president Mikhail Gorbachev and Union of Socialist Soviet Republics (USSR) Communist Party Central Committee Secretary Alexander Yakovlev, for the dissolution of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe and the dismantlement of the Soviet Union itself."

Military Modernization and the Russian Ground Forces Dr Rod Thornton Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph examines the recent process of organizational change in the Russian ground forces. It begins by charting the whole post-Soviet military reform debate. This debate was dominated, on the one hand, by those seeking to make the armed forces more professional, flexible, and adroit—and thus better suited to the security demands of a major 21st-century power—and, on the other hand, by senior military figures wedded to the concepts of mass and a conscript-based military. It was actually only after the war with Georgia in 2008, and when military opposition was weakened, that change within the ground forces could begin in earnest. New command tiers were established, divisions became brigades, and the idea of absorbing professional soldiers into the ground forces was refined. The problems of generating a suitable corps of non-commissioned officers, of training suitable officers, and of marrying equipment to strategic need are all issues covered here. This work concludes with the thought that even though the changes being introduced in the ground forces look dramatic, they cannot be implemented overnight. The road towards fundamental change where Russia’s ground forces are concerned will be quite a long one."

The European Campaign: Its Origins and Conduct Dr Clayton K S Chun, Dr Samuel J Newland Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Since the end of World War II, there has been a stream of publications about the War in Europe, but despite the volume of literature, interest in the topic remains high. Given the significance of this conflict and the interest in this campaign, the Strategic Studies Institute offers a fresh look at the campaign in Europe. This publication begins with an examination of prewar planning for various contingencies, then moves to the origins of “Germany first” in American war planning. The authors then focus on the concept, favored by both George C. Marshall and Dwight D. Eisenhower, that the United States and its Allies had to conduct a cross-channel attack and undertake an offensive aimed at the heartland of Germany. Following the background provided in these initial chapters, the remainder of the book provides a comprehensive discussion outlining how the European Campaign was carried out."