Recent Articles

by Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF). Under the Direction of: Prof Kristan Wheaton; Publication by Estimation of Technology Convergence by 2035 This comprehensive analysis from students at the U.S. Army War College’s Futures Seminar explores the anticipated convergence of various technologies – including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum technology – by 2035, highlighting their potential military applications and implications for national security. The authors, a diverse team of military and government professionals, utilize structured analytic techniques to project significant technological advancements and their synergistic effects, emphasizing the critical need for strategic foresight in military planning and operations.

Vincent A. Amerena Sr., Steven M. Clark, Andrew L. Heymann, Martin D. Lepak, John A. Urciuoli; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document outlines a strategic framework for evolving the Army’s talent management approach to meet future demands. It identifies 12 critical elements necessary for a talent-based system, emphasizing the importance of a self-learning system, visibility of the total force, and expandable access to personnel across the Department of Defense. Additionally, the report addresses procedural and cultural impediments that could hinder the implementation of an agile system, such as mobile access to the talent marketplace and military compensation challenges. The report serves as a blueprint for transforming Army personnel management to align with emerging workforce trends and operational needs by 2035.

Ashraf S. Abdelhak, Jerry A. Brown, Rafael A. Duran, Russell V. Hoff, Samuel P. Smith; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document meticulously evaluates the modernization plans and defense strategies of key global players, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, identifying 19 capabilities and 22 unique threat signatures that will likely evolve. The report emphasizes the necessity for the U.S. Army to develop sophisticated, integrated sensor systems capable of detecting both technical and non-technical signatures, as adversaries increasingly employ advanced technologies such as electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, and stealth to obscure their actions. As global powers continue to enhance their military capabilities, this analysis serves as a crucial guide for maintaining strategic superiority and ensuring national security.

Estimation of Technology Convergence Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF) Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Team prepared this document as part of an Integrated Research Project as partial to complete the Master of Strategic Studies degree from the USAWC. The research, analysis, and production of this product occurred from Oct 2019 through Apr 2020 as part of the in-residence AWC Senior Service College program. The research question was: How, when, and where are artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum technology, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, autonomous technology, robotics, and information technology likely to converge in ways relevant to the US Army over the next 15 years?"

Likely Threat Signatures 2030-2040 Ashraf Abdelhak, Jerry Brown, Rafael Duran, Russell Hoff, Samuel Smith Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The USAWC Futures Seminar Team Sensing prepared this document for the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Army, G2 (Intelligence). The research, analysis, and production of this product occurred over a 28 week time frame from Oct 2019 to Apr 2020 at the USAWC. The research requirement was: What are likely future threat signatures in 2030-2040? What sensors and systems will the U.S. Army likely need in order to detect, recognize, analyze, and target future threat signatures?"

Talent Management After Next - Evolution of the People Strategy Vincent A. Amerena Sr. Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "This document was written by a research team at the USAWC as a part of the Futures Seminar for AY 2020. This report answers questions posed by Dr. Casey Wardynski, Asst. Sec. of the Army for Manpower and Reserve Affairs (ASA M&RA). The team's task was to analyze and synthesize an estimate from open-source information relevant to the questions posed: What are the elements of a talent-based approach to Army personnel management that will reveal market requirements while meeting Army demands in relative real-time and provide feedback through a self-learning system? Additionally, what procedural and cultural impediments likely stand in the way of an agile system that allows the Army to adapt to these new demands through acquisition avenues or modifications to the development of the Army's existing talent?"

Commentary on “The US Army in Multi-Domain Operations 2028” BG Huba Wass de Czege Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "Accepting General Mark A. Milley’s invitation to provide critical feedback on the Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) discussion, Brigadier General Huba Wass de Czege, US Army retired, provides an institutionally informed critique of United States Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) Pamphlet 525-3-1, The U.S. Army in Multi-Domain Operations 2028."

Nonstate Actors and Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies: The Coming Challenge Dr Jean-Loup Samaan Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "This monograph explores the emerging challenge of nonstate actors’ anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) strategies and their implications for the United States and its allies. This monograph starts from one major development: the historical monopoly of states over precision-guided munitions has eroded, and this evolution eventually challenges the ability of the most advanced militaries to operate in certain environments. Questioning the type of strategy that nonstate actors may implement as they gain greater access to advanced military technology, the research argues some of these groups increasingly lean toward A2/AD strategies. The analysis focuses on two regions, the Middle East and Eastern Europe, where case studies include Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis in Yemen, and separatist groups in Ukraine."

How the Army Runs 2019-2020: A Senior Leader Reference Handbook Prof Louis G Yuenger Reference Handbook from the US Army War College, School of Strategic Landpower "Since the publication of the 2017-2018 How the Army Runs Reference Handbook, the U.S. Army is transitioning its concepts, doctrine, and capabilities to a new strategy. This new strategy switches the focus of Army forces from counterinsurgency to large scale combat operations (LSCO) against a peer, or near-peer competitor. The Army responds to this fundamental change in strategy by establishing two very clear objectives in achieving the new strategy. The intermediate objective is to establish a multi-domain operations capable force (at least selected formations) by 2028 and an ultimate objective to grow that force into a multi-domain operations ready Army by 2035..."