The Impact of Missile Threats on the Reliability of U.S. Overseas Bases: A Framework for Analysis Mr Joel Wuthnow Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Although the United States will continue to utilize overseas military bases in the next decade, the acquisition and improvement of long-range missiles by several potential aggressors will pose new operational and strategic problems for U.S. forces. Several states will likely attain a credible capability to threaten U.S. bases within their respective regions, despite the sophistication of U.S. missile defenses. Strategically, there are uncertainties about whether the United States can deter some of these new missile-capable actors. Deterrence problems will create new risks to U.S. deployed forces: If deterrence fails, U.S. troops will be at a higher level of exposure. Alternately, missiles will grant states some leverage to dissuade the United States from actually using overseas forces, as well as a means to coerce host states into denying access to the United States. Though several factors will mitigate these concerns, the question remains: How reliable will alliance-derived “tripwires” and other deployments be in the overall U.S. strategy of engagement? Alterations in force structure, tailored to these threats, will likely be needed."

The Paradox of Civil War Dr Stephen D Biddle Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The danger of civil war in Iraq has gotten much recent attention. Civil war would certainly be a disaster. Paradoxically, though, threatening overt civil war may be the only way out of our current predicament."

Winning the War by Winning the Peace: Strategy for Conflict and Post-Conflict in the 21st Century COL Lloyd J Matthews Colloquium Report by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "During each of the last 15 years, the U.S. Army War College has sponsored a broad-based strategy conference that addresses a major security issue of current relevance to the United States, its allies, and, indeed, the entire world. Bringing together some 150 200 scholars, defense specialists, news media representatives, active and retired members of the military community, and uniformed and civilian faculty members of senior U.S. service colleges, the annual conferences are conceived to generate open, unfettered dialogue on the issue under discussion. Particular attention is paid to controversial or unresolved questions, always with the aim of surfacing practical answers based upon multiple perspectives and a dispassionate regard for reason and the attendant facts."

Deception 101--Primer on Deception Dr Joseph W Caddell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "This monograph reviews the basic concepts related to “deception.” The author, Dr. Joseph Caddell, defines terms, provides historical examples, and discusses problems associated with deception. His monograph provides a general overview, a “primer,” and is not directed at those who already possess a working knowledge of deception operations. Nevertheless, given the complex and ever-changing nature of deception in the political-military environment, it may serve as a useful reminder of the basic assumptions and methods concerning the subject."

U.S.-Ukraine Military Relations and the Value of Interoperability Mr Leonid I Polyakov Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Ukraine has been a pivotal actor in Eurasia since its independence in 1991. Ukraine’s destiny is critical to the security of the entire post-Soviet zone, and both it and the United States always have acted on that assumption. The stated goal of Ukrainian defense policy long has been to integrate with Euro-Atlantic structures like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and this goal has been one of the chief objectives of the United States, as well. However, to move from rhetoric to implementation is particularly difficult where the defense reform of a post-Soviet state has been concerned, and Ukraine is no exception. Nevertheless, in the past few years Ukraine has begun to make remarkable progress towards its self-professed goal of defense integration with Western structures."

Chinese Crisis Management Mr Andy Gudgel Colloquium Brief by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, The Heritage Foundation, and American Enterprise Institute "Over 50 experts on China and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) gathered at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania, from October 1-3, to attend the 2004 Chinese Crisis Management Conference. Cosponsored by the Heritage Foundation, American Enterprise Institute, and the U.S. Army War College, the conference participants discussed a framework for analyzing Chinese decisionmaking during crises, and examined historical examples of domestic, regional, and international crises and how the Chinese government dealt with them."

Unlearning Counterinsurgency Dr Steven Metz Op-Ed by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Once again insurgency and counterinsurgency have become issues of great importance to the U.S. military, particularly the Army. This is not a new phenomenon, but the latest manifestation of an old cycle. Several times in the past the Army has mastered counterinsurgency, only to see attention wane when the strategic significance of insurgency subsided, thus forcing it to re-learn the skill when a new threat emerged. Now we must do this again."

Getting MAD: Nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction, Its Origins and Practice Mr Henry D Sokolski Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center "Nearly 40 years after the concept of finite deterrence was popularized by the Johnson administration, nuclear Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) thinking appears to be in decline. The United States has rejected the notion that threatening population centers with nuclear attacks is a legitimate way to assure deterrence. Most recently, it withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, an agreement based on MAD. American opposition to MAD also is reflected in the Bush administration’s desire to develop smaller, more accurate nuclear weapons that would reduce the number of innocent civilians killed in a nuclear strike."

Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in the 21st Century: Reconceptualizing Threat and Response Dr Steven Metz, LTC Raymond A Millen Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Insurgency has existed throughout history but ebbed and flowed in strategic significance. Today the world has entered another period when insurgency is common and strategically significant. This is likely to continue for at least a decade, perhaps longer. As the United States confronts this threat, extrapolating old ideas, strategies, doctrine, and operational concepts is a recipe for ineffectiveness. Reconceptualization is needed."