Monographs

The United States and Russia into the 21st Century Dr Michael McFaul, Dr R Craig Nation Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Russia can be counted as a European great power from the battle of Poltava in 1709, several generations prior to the American Declaration of Independence. Throughout the 18th and 19th centuries, the Americas were of only modest interest to the huge, autocratic Eurasian land power, and relative neglect was fully reciprocated by the New World's rising maritime republic. A sensitive 19th century observer like Alexis de Toqueville was able to discern the seeds of future rivalry, but his insights were only hypothetical. Russia was pleased to sell all of Alaska to the Yankees for a pittance in the 1860s."

Force Planning in an Era of Uncertainty: Two MRCs as a Force Sizing Framework Prof John F Troxell Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the United States has been struggling with the issue of how to redefine its defense requirements. Although the Cold War competition with the former Soviet Union was perilous and extremely costly in human and material resources, this competition did represent an agreed and certain framework around which to focus U.S. defense strategy and structure U.S. armed forces. The uncertainty of the post-Cold War world has left defense planners and analysts debating the proper force planning methodology to pursue, and opened a broader debate concerning the size and purpose of the U.S. military establishment. Four separate reviews have been conducted in the past 7 years: the Base Force, the Bottom Up Review, the Commission on Roles and Missions, and, most recently, the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). These reviews have generated only a moderate degree of consensus within the Defense Department and much less agreement in the broader national security community."

The Crisis in the Russian Economy Dr Vitaly V Shlykov Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "It seems as if the universal laws of economics do not apply to Russia. According to the economic theory, in the period of transition from a rigidly centralized economy to free market, prices are not set, state-owned businesses are privatized, and then there is a phase--2 or 3 years long--of painful adjustment and rising unemployment. After that--and this has been happening in Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Baltic states--the economy starts growing."

Military Medical Operations in Sub-Saharan Africa: THE DoD LTC C William Fox Jr Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "Because of the perceived limited national interest in Africa, U.S. "African" policy does not have a strong constituency in the American political process and lacks coherence and focus. U.S. regional involvements tend to be inconsistent and reactive. The result is that the United States invests much more for "cures" to Africa's ills than might be the case if U.S. policy could place more emphasis on "prevention." For their part, at no time in history have African nations been more receptive to U.S. assistance, or more eager for cooperative efforts to address the difficult issues of national development."

The Evolution in Military Affairs: Shaping the Future U.S. Armed Forces Prof Douglas C Lovelace Jr Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "In this study, Professor Douglas Lovelace articulates the exigent need to begin preparing the U.S. armed forces for the international security environment which will succeed the post-Cold War era. He defines national security interests, describes the future international security environment, identifies derivative future national security objectives and strategic concepts, and discerns the military capabilities that will be required in the early 21st century."

From Madrid to Brussels: Perspectives on NATO Enlargement Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "When we think about European security, no question is more basic or more complex than that of NATO enlargement. In July 1997, members of NATO will convene in Madrid and decide to invite a number of Central and/or East European states to begin accession talks with NATO, leading to their full membership in 1999. While it is not certain who the invited states will be, there are good grounds for listing Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as reasonable certainties. Slovenia and Romania are also increasingly mentioned as possibilities. NATO's decision in Madrid will have immense repercussions for Europe, not just for NATO's current members, or for the new candidates, but also for the states not invited. Those presumably include Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Bulgaria, Albania, the states emerging out of the former Yugoslavia, and the European neutrals: Finland, Sweden, and Austria, and the Baltic states."

The Russian Military in the 21st Century Dr Alexei G Arbatov Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The very title of this monograph is quite ambiguous. On the one hand, only 3 years are left until the 21st century. This is too short a time to forecast or propose any serious change in a huge and complicated organization like the armed forces of a great power. On the other hand, each century lasts 100 years, and without a crystal ball it is impossible to predict the evolution of armed forces over such a long period, least of all at a time of dynamic and revolutionary shifts in the world's technologies, economics, the geopolitical scene, and the relative military balance between nations."

National Defense into the 21st Century: Defining the Issues Dr Earl H Tilford Jr Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "The timing of the QDR comes at a watershed point in the history of our nation and its defense establishment. Rather than facing a single and symmetrical threat from a known enemy, as was the case from 1946 until the end of the Cold War, the nation now faces a range of multidimensional and asymmetrical threats. We do so at a time of constrained budgets and ever more constrained resources, as the nation and its Congress seek to balance the budget by 2002. Simultaneously, the pace of development in military technology is not only expanding more rapidly, but the sophisticated weapons and the technology necessary to employ those weapons are becoming more readily available to a range of potential foes."

Challenges and Options in the Caucasus and Central Asia Dr Pavel K Baev Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute "That Russia has vital strategic interests in the Caucasus and Central Asia can be taken as an established political fact. What is remarkable about this fact is that the nature of these interests as well as the nature and intensity of challenges to them have changed quite drastically during Russia's 5 years of existence as a post-Soviet state. It is no wonder that Russian policymakers are permanently agonizing over reassessment of these interests and are now nowhere close to producing a coherent strategy of their advancement. This monograph will argue that Russia's ability to meet the challenges from the South is a major factor in determining its future as a world power."