Regional Issues

By Dr. Michele Devlin, COL Damon Delarosa, Mr. Hugh Hardin, COL John Harrell, COL Virginia Knorr, COL Yoon Choi, Dr. John Munro, Mr. Brian Gellert, Mr. Steve Cunliffe; Report from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This report analyzes the pressing issue of climate-amplified out-migration of local indigenous workers who support the US Army Garrison-Kwajalein Atoll (USAG-KA) in the Marshall Islands. Escalating environmental impacts, poor economic opportunities in the host nation, limited access to advanced health care, and poor educational opportunities are key drivers of increased Marshallese out-migration to the United States, shrinking the pool of current and future local workers for the USAG-KA. This report emphasizes the real and escalating environmental impacts on US military installations in terms of both infrastructure damage and the human communities that surround US bases and provide local labor for these facilities.

Ron Gurantz, ©2024 Ron Gurantz; Monograph from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; The US strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine appeared to undermine Russian efforts to justify the war. While studies of international crises typically focus on the goals of deterrence and escalation management, recent events in Ukraine show that counterjustification is another important objective. Russia used covert activities and deception to try and create a pretext for its invasion, and the United States aggressively countered these efforts. This monograph presents an exhaustive study of the US military, diplomatic, and informational strategy in the run-up to the invasion of Ukraine and derives lessons about counterjustification that can be applied in future crises. The study should help military officers and government officials develop effective counterjustification tactics.

C. Anthony Pfaff, ©2024 C. Anthony Pfaff; Monograph from the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press; As wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue with little end in sight, the sense of urgency to determine how they should end is increasing, given how the wars could end. A just war aims to establish a better state of peace, but a better state of peace may not always be achievable, and even when it is achievable, it may not be good enough. When that is the case, actors must determine on what terms to settle, given what they think they can achieve based on relative capabilities and cost tolerances. The resulting “maximin” solution, a practical approach where actors maximize the minimum they can achieve, provides a range of solutions. But taking only these factors into account is not likely to produce an enduring or more perfect peace. To get to a “good enough” state of peace, justice concerns—in this case framed by the just-war tradition—play a role. By impacting what counts as costs and benefits and placing boundaries on what actors should accept independently of those costs and benefits, the just-war tradition can help actors construct more durable settlements. The experiences in Ukraine and Gaza further illustrate gaps in the just-war tradition, which this book also addresses.

John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson, ©2024 John R. Deni; Monograph from the US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College; What more can US allies in Europe do to assist Ukraine militarily? More broadly, what can the United States expect from its closest allies in Europe in strategic competition with Russia and China? In this monograph, John R. Deni and Lisa A. Aronsson assess whether US allies and partners in Europe can continue providing military assistance to Ukraine or expand assistance, while preserving their own national security and fulfilling their NATO commitments. They also explore what the Russia-Ukraine War reveals about the role of European allies in future iterations of strategic competition. Their findings indicate European allies remain firmly in support of assisting Ukraine politically, even if the reasons for allied support vary across Europe. Despite agreeing support is necessary, European allies face several hurdles on the path toward scaling up military assistance to Ukraine. The reasons for the hurdles vary, and some exceptions exist, but Deni and Aronsson find without continued, sustained US engagement, leadership, and presence in Europe, Washington may find itself with few European allies by its side. To facilitate and sustain continued success in transatlantic burden sharing, the authors provide several practical recommendations for US policymakers to consider.

Satellites in the Russia-Ukraine War Ron Gurantz Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press Satellites and counterspace systems have shown themselves to be important parts of modern warfare in the Russia-Ukraine War but have also been subject to various restrictions to prevent escalation. This monograph examines the role of satellites and counterspace systems in the Russia-Ukraine War’s high-technology warfare and the effects of satellite proliferation and commercialization on the conduct of the war. It also analyzes the restrictions under which space-based capabilities have been operating and the implications of these limits for future conflicts—a subject that has received little attention. Relying on an exhaustive study of open-source material and the application of limited-war theory to the case of the Russia-Ukraine War, this monograph will help officials and strategists better understand the roles satellites are likely to play in future conflicts and the limits under which states will operate them as governments seek to gain military advantage and avoid escalation.

A Call to Action: Lessons from Ukraine for the Future Force John A. Nagl, Project Director Katie Crombe, Chief of Staff Integrated Research Project by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute This book explores the changing character of war through the lens of the Russia-Ukraine War. The authors analyze the conflict’s history, each side’s warfighting functions, the role of multidomain operations, and more. The radical changes in the character of war suggest the United States is at a strategic inflection point. The authors draw lessons from both the Ukrainians and the Russians to suggest improvements for the United States. Advances in drone technology, cyber warfare, and electromagnetic warfare pose new technological vulnerabilities and possibilities. In addition, the war has highlighted the roles of allies in deterrence and training as well as how leadership styles within the military—specifically, in the implementation of mission command—can be a decisive factor. As the Russia-Ukraine War has demonstrated, modern conflict touches a plethora of domains; thus, having sufficient personnel who are ready to fill a variety of capacities will be critical in the future. Finally, the war has shown history and justice are critical aspects of going to war and achieving peace, so crafting a narrative and satisfying stakeholders will be necessary for establishing a stable world order. The Russia-Ukraine War foreshadows the challenges the United States will face in future conflict and highlights the keys to adapting to modern warfare.

Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as a Pacing Challenge – 2023 PLA Conference – Updated and Expanded Editors: George R. Shatzer and Joshua M. Arostegui; Contributors: Christopher K. Colley, Lisa Curtis, Travis Dolney, Connor Donahue, James E. Fanell, Šumit Ganguly, Ron Gurantz, Paul Nantulya, Elizabeth A. Wishnick; Conference papers by the US Army War College, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute Chapter 1 – ©2024 James E. Fanell. All rights reserved. Chapter 2 – ©2024 Lisa Curtis and Šumit Ganguly. All rights reserved. Chapter 3 – ©2024 Christopher K. Colley. All rights reserved. Chapter 5 – ©2024 Ron Gurantz. All rights reserved. The US Army War College’s 2023 Conference on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) was held February 22 to 24, 2023, at Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania. The conference, entitled “Decisive Decade: PRC Global Strategy and the PLA as Pacing Challenge,” featured presentations on PRC global and regional strategy, and the PLA’s enabling role by experts from a wide range of academic, media, and government agencies and organizations. The conference papers better defined the notion of the PLA as a pacing challenge as evidenced by PRC strategies and activities in various regions to build a much stronger appreciation of how PLA operations in these locations matter to each other and the whole of the PRC’s broader national strategy. The event also included presentations on Chinese military deterrence and potential justifications for a cross-Strait conflict following US House Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022. Specific topics included the PRC’s acceleration of military reforms and its extending reach; how the PRC can use various regional crises to justify military action against Taiwan; countering PRC military strength in Northeast Asia; and the PRC’s growing economic and security engagements with Latin America, Africa, South Asia, Russia, and Europe.

International Competition in the High North: Kingston Conference on International Security 2022 Editors: Michael E. Lynch and Howard G. Coombs Conference Papers by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press Climate change has expanded commercial opportunities in the High North. The Russian attack on Ukraine has weakened the Arctic Council, thus setting the stage for great-power competition in the Arctic. This presents several dilemmas to the Arctic Nations, and especially the indigenous populations who live in the region.

Deterrence Gap: Avoiding War in the Taiwan Strait Jared M. McKinney and Peter Harris Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press The various deterrents that used to discourage Beijing from invading Taiwan have decayed, and at the same time China’s leaders face fewer restraints than ever before. Even so, if interlocking deterrents can be developed for the short, medium, and long terms, and peace reinvigorated, war may yet be avoided.