Recent Articles

Politics and Economics in Putin's Russia Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The papers included here, except for the editor’s introduction, all come from the Strategic Studies Institute’s annual conference on Russia in May 2012. In one way or another, they all point to the internal pathologies that render Russian security a precarious affair, at the best of times. As the editor suggests, the very fact of this precariousness makes Russia an inherently unpredictable and even potentially dangerous actor, not necessarily because it will actively attack its neighbors, though we certainly cannot exclude that possibility, but rather because it may come apart trying to play the role of a great power in Eurasia or elsewhere. As we all know, that outcome happened in 1917 and in 1989-91, with profound implications for international security and U.S. interests."

Africa's Booming Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production: National Security Implications for the United States and China Mr David E Brown Book by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press This monograph on Africa’s energy future describes how the frenetic search for hydrocarbons in Africa has become so intense and wide ranging that there is planned or ongoing oil and gas exploration in at least 51 of the continent’s 54 countries. Knowledge about Africa’s geology is improving rapidly, generating great optimism about Africa’s future growth and strategic position in the global economy. Because of a domestic boom in shale oil and gas in the United States, however, our nation’s energy imports from Africa have been falling rapidly in recent years, raising the key strategic issue of whether Africa matters as much to U.S. energy security as it once did.

Terminal Blackout: Critical Electric Infrastructure Vulnerabilities and Civil-Military Resiliency Ms Cindy E Ayers, Kenneth D Chrosniak Issue Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "Threats to the electric grid (cyber, solar, non-nuclear electromagnetic pulse [NNEMP] and high-altitude nuclear electromagnetic pulse [HEMP]), as well as the potential consequences of significant damage to grid components by terrorists and other natural disasters, have increased incrementally since 2001; but details releasable to the public at the unclassified level were rare prior to 2008..."

State Collapse, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency: Lessons from Somalia Dr J Peter Pham Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "...In this monograph, however, Dr. J. Peter Pham adopts a different approach. Beginning with a keen appreciation for the intricacies of Somali culture and history, he argues that the key is to understand political legitimacy among the Somali and then examines how both al-Shabaab and the different local polities that have emerged in Somalia have, to varying degrees, acquired it—as well as how successive Somali regimes have not. He also explores how weakness of, and divisions among, the insurgents can be better exploited by engaging and empowering alternative centers of legitimacy. What emerges from his analysis is a rather nuanced picture of the counterinsurgency strategy that, following several frustrating years, finally achieved its objectives, as well as several provocative suggestions."

What Is Next for Mali? The Roots of Conflict and Challenges to Stability Dr Dona J Stewart Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In March 2012, the government of Mali, one of the most touted symbols of Africa’s democratic potential fell in a military-executed coup. At the same time, a 4-decade-old rebellion among Tuaregs seeking autonomy or independence reached new heights, fueled by weapons from Muammar Gadaffi’s fallen government and perhaps the belief that the Arab Spring could extend to northern Mali. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and their allies were quick to capitalize on the increasing chaos in a territory characterized by lack of government control and poverty and seized the major cities in the north. The imposition of a severe form of Islamic law and a growing food crisis sent the population fleeing south across Mali’s international borders. The French-led military intervention, Operation SERVAL, ousted the militants from the main cities in the north, but did not address the crisis’ underlying issues including the grievances that feed the Tuareg nationalist movement, the establishment of a civilian-led government in Mali, and the near- and long-term threats to food security. The eruption of this crisis also demands a critical look at the Sahel’s regional security framework, and the U.S. role in it. "

Reforming the Police in Post-Soviet States: Georgia and Kyrgyzstan Dr Erica Marat Letort Paper by US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "In most Soviet successor states, the police (militia) are among the least trusted government agencies. The police are frequently seen as representatives of the state who are allowed to persecute ordinary citizens, extort bribes, and protect the real criminals. This leads to cycles of mutual antagonism in which society does not expect the police to perform their function properly, and the police are unable to enforce state regulation of society. In the examples of Georgia and Kyrgyzstan in this monograph, Dr. Erica Marat examines which domestic processes will likely fail and which have a chance to succeed in changing the post-Soviet police from a punitive institution into a more democratic entity. "

Central Asia After 2014 Dr Stephen J Blank Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the United States proceed to withdraw their forces from Afghanistan, the inherent and preexisting geopolitical, security, and strategic challenges in Central Asia become ever more apparent. The rivalry among the great powers (the United States, China, Russia, India, and others to a lesser degree) is becoming increasingly more visible as a key factor that will shape this region after the allied withdrawal from Afghanistan. The papers collected here, presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s (SSI) annual conference on Russia in 2012, go far to explain what the agenda for that rivalry is and how it is likely to influence regional trends after 2013. Therefore, these papers provide a vital set of insights into an increasingly critical area of international politics and security, especially as it is clear that the United States is reducing, but not totally withdrawing, its military establishment in Afghanistan and is seeking to consolidate long-term relationships with Central Asian states."

Building Better Armies: An Insider’s Account of Liberia Dr Sean McFate Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "We have long known that helping allies build better armies and police forces is a key to regional stability and the exit strategy for costly missions like Afghanistan in an “as they stand up, we stand down” approach. Yet the U.S. track record on this is unacceptably weak. The 2012 coup in Mali was staged by U.S. trained Malian soldiers. In Afghanistan, after years of training, the Pentagon assessed that only one of the Afghan National Army’s 23 brigades is able to operate independently. This does not augur well for U.S. troop withdrawal in 2014 or for the future of Afghanistan."

SOLLIMS Sampler - Key Enablers for Peacekeeping & Stability Operations Mister David A Mosinski PKSOI SOLLIMS Sampler by the US Army War College, Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute "In the course of recent / ongoing operations in Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Kenya, Liberia, Libya, and Sierra Leone, a number of key “enablers” have significantly contributed to mission accomplishment. In most cases, these “enablers” were developed / instituted to address a specific need or shortfall, and they rather quickly made a positive operational impact for the forces involved. Granted, no two operations are ever alike, however, the key “enablers” covered in this report are nonetheless offered as “food for thought” for planners and practitioners of future peacekeeping and stability operations."