Military Change & Transformation

by Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF). Under the Direction of: Prof Kristan Wheaton; Publication by Estimation of Technology Convergence by 2035 This comprehensive analysis from students at the U.S. Army War College’s Futures Seminar explores the anticipated convergence of various technologies – including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum technology – by 2035, highlighting their potential military applications and implications for national security. The authors, a diverse team of military and government professionals, utilize structured analytic techniques to project significant technological advancements and their synergistic effects, emphasizing the critical need for strategic foresight in military planning and operations.

Vincent A. Amerena Sr., Steven M. Clark, Andrew L. Heymann, Martin D. Lepak, John A. Urciuoli; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document outlines a strategic framework for evolving the Army’s talent management approach to meet future demands. It identifies 12 critical elements necessary for a talent-based system, emphasizing the importance of a self-learning system, visibility of the total force, and expandable access to personnel across the Department of Defense. Additionally, the report addresses procedural and cultural impediments that could hinder the implementation of an agile system, such as mobile access to the talent marketplace and military compensation challenges. The report serves as a blueprint for transforming Army personnel management to align with emerging workforce trends and operational needs by 2035.

Ashraf S. Abdelhak, Jerry A. Brown, Rafael A. Duran, Russell V. Hoff, Samuel P. Smith; Document from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This document meticulously evaluates the modernization plans and defense strategies of key global players, including China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, identifying 19 capabilities and 22 unique threat signatures that will likely evolve. The report emphasizes the necessity for the U.S. Army to develop sophisticated, integrated sensor systems capable of detecting both technical and non-technical signatures, as adversaries increasingly employ advanced technologies such as electronic warfare, cyber capabilities, and stealth to obscure their actions. As global powers continue to enhance their military capabilities, this analysis serves as a crucial guide for maintaining strategic superiority and ensuring national security.

Estimation of Technology Convergence Lt Col Nicholas Delcour (USAF), Lt Col Louis Duncan (USAF), Mr Stephen Frahm (DOS), CDR Patrick Lancaster (USN), Lt Col Lance Vann (USAF) Paper by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership "The Team prepared this document as part of an Integrated Research Project as partial to complete the Master of Strategic Studies degree from the USAWC. The research, analysis, and production of this product occurred from Oct 2019 through Apr 2020 as part of the in-residence AWC Senior Service College program. The research question was: How, when, and where are artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum technology, nanotechnology, neurotechnology, autonomous technology, robotics, and information technology likely to converge in ways relevant to the US Army over the next 15 years?"

Leading Change in Military Organizations: Experiential Activity Book Dr Thomas P. Galvin Activity book by the US Army War College, Department of Command, Leadership, and Management, School of Strategic Landpower, US Army War College Press, Strategic Studies Institute "This text contains six activities representing six discrete actions in preparing for planned change. These are shown in Figure 1, and each one has an activity established for it. Each activity is presented in two forms – (1) full form for field use where all steps should be completed, and (2) short form for introductory use in educational settings. In the field, it is recommended that these activities be conducted in a facilitated setting or under the advice of a consultant who is familiar with the underlying literature..."

A History of the Army's Future: 1990-2018 v 2.0 Dr Conrad C Crane, Dr Michael E Lynch, Shane P. Reilly Historical Research Review by US Army War College, Army Heritage and Education Center "The establishment of Army Futures Command (AFC) in August 2018 was the most significant change to the Institutional Army in a generation, and it signaled the value the Army placed on studying the future. While the establishment of a new four star headquarters might be seen as a bold move, it was in reality the culmination of 30 years of future development in the Army. Those three decades saw the development of numerous structures designed to examine the potential for future concepts and technology, with uneven success. The processes were good, but technological overreach, and over 20 years of war in the Middle East, doomed most efforts to put useful concepts into practice..."

Learning the Lessons of Lethality: The Army's Cycle of Basic Combat Training, 1918-2019 Dr Conrad C Crane, Dr Michael E Lynch, Shane P. Reilly, Jessica J. Sheets Historical Research Review by US Army War College, Army Heritage and Education Center "This study analyzes the initial entry training programs for Army inductees for the last 100 years, to identify the patterns that have shaped that training. Technology has changed over the years, and training has adapted, but technological change has been a less important factor than the oscillation between wartime and peacetime methodologies. Changes in technology have not changed the core functions in which the Army trains its new Soldiers: lethality and survivability. The unvarying trend for the last century shows an increase in lethality and survivability skills after the nation enters combat, often learning harsh lessons. As soon as the conflict ends, however, the training emphasis reflexively moves back toward garrison-type activities..."

“Come As You Are” War: U.S. Readiness for the Korean Conflict Dr Conrad C Crane, Dr Michael E Lynch, Shane P. Reilly, Jessica J. Sheets Historical Research Review by US Army War College, Army Heritage and Education Center "Task Force Smith at the beginning of the Korean War has often been used as a metaphor for military unreadiness. While the story of that first US action of the war provides a timeless cautionary tale for commanders, the story of unreadiness for war in June 1950 went much further than the tactical failures of one infantry battalion. The lack of readiness was caused by a very disruptive interwar period that saw drastic and often chaotic changes to Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership, Personnel, Facilities and Policy (DOTMLPF-P)."

Maintaining Information Dominance in Complex Environments Dr John A S. Ardis, Dr Shima D Keene Monograph by the US Army War College, Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College Press "The U.S. Army is committed to a high state of resilience and readiness. The problem is that for complex environments, the U.S. Army cannot afford simply to be very effective in a known set of circumstances and unprepared for others, and neither can it afford to be no more than moderately capable in the broadest possible range of circumstances. The U.S. Army has to be effective across the board, and that places extraordinary demands on its Soldiers during all phases of preparation for and engagement in conflict."