Military Change & Transformation

By Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Issue paper from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; A battle is going on right now, and every military in the world is fighting it. Victory in the ongoing battle is crucial. The militaries on the winning side will likely be on the winning side of the next large-scale war. The losers will likely be forgotten, studied only for the mistakes they made. This is the battle of Moore’s chasm. The battle of Moore’s chasm takes place everywhere. Physical manifestations of the battle exist in Ukraine, the Taiwan Strait, and Gaza. But equally important conceptual and theoretical manifestations of the battle exist in the Pentagon, on Arbatskaya Square in Moscow, and deep inside the August 1st Building in Beijing. What this battle is about, and how to win it, are the subjects of this issue paper.

By Professor Kristan J. Wheaton, Professor Bert Tussing, Dr. George Schwartz, Mr. Brian Foster, Patricia Hayes, Mr. Chad Jagmin; Collins Center Update by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; The Collins Center Update is a quarterly summary of programs and activities at the Center for Strategic Leader (CSL) at the U.S. Army War College (USAWC). This issue features articles on the Innovation Champions Course by Prof. Kristian Wheaton; The Homeland Defense Symposium by Professor Bert Tussing and Dr. George Schwartz; The National Security Simulation Exercise of Competition, Crisis, and Conflict by Mr. Brian Foster; The Valley Forge Military College National Security Symposium by Dr. George Schwartz; The USAWC Fellows Focus by Ms. Patricia Hayes; and The From Data to Decision in Warfighting Course by Mr. Chad Jagmin.

by COL Doug Simmons, LtCol Kelly Raisch, LTC Krista Gueller, LTC Noel Chun, LTC Mike McCray Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership This comprehensive report analyzes the interplay between historical military innovations and future defense strategies, emphasizing the necessity of a dynamic Defense Innovation Ecosystem to maintain military superiority in the face of emerging global challenges. It explores critical factors such as strategic vision, cultural adaptability, and the integration of disruptive technologies, providing valuable insights for shaping effective military doctrines and enhancing the U.S. military’s readiness for future conflicts.

by COL Erin H. Frazier (USA), COL Robert F. Jordan (USA), Lt Col Joseph G. Dolce (USAF), LTC Tyler J. Waterhouse (USAR), LTC Allan S. Jackman (USA), Under the direction of Professor Kristan J. Wheaton; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This is a report that outlines the transformative potential of human-machine integration (HMI) in military operations over the next two decades. It emphasizes the need for comprehensive changes across the DOTMLPF-P framework (Doctrine, organization, training, material, leadership and education, personnel, facilities, and policy) to maintain a competitive edge in future conflicts. The report identifies key areas of impact, including command and maneuver, ethical AI-enhanced decision-making, and future-proofing military capabilities, highlighting the integration of advanced technologies such as brain0computer interfaces and augmented reality. Ethical considerations and the development of a technologically proficient military workforce are underscored as crucial elements of this evolution.

LTC Joseph “Joe” Bell (USA, Aviation), COL John Cooper (USA, Human Resources), LTC Kristine “Kris” Hinds (USAR, Logistics), LtCol Erik Keim (USMC, Communications), LTC Michael “Neal” Miller (USAR, Logistics), Faculty Advisor: Dr. Kathleen Moore; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores how contemporary conflicts shape future warfare by integrating diverse actors and technologies. The report emphasizes the increasing role of technology in warfare, highlighting the integration of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) advancements, rapid technological implementation, and the involvement of private sectors. It predicts that by 2035, warfare will be characterized by unprecedented visibility, rapid technological advancements, and lower barriers to entry, making everyone a potential player and everything a target in a “conflict-in-a-sandbox” environment. This evolution necessitates adapting strategies and enhancing collaboration among military and non-military entities to address emerging threats and vulnerabilities effectively.

COL Luke Clover, COL Stacy Moore-Callaway, COL Erik Oksenvaag, LTC John Oliver, LTC Eric Soler; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This publication explores the potential transition of the U.S. Army to electrification and carbon neutrality by 2035, identifying key technologies, challenges, and recommendations. It highlights the likelihood of emerging capabilities in redundant power generation, assured energy, and smart tech synergy, which are expected to support this transition despite obstacles like supply chain issues and infrastructure costs. The document emphasizes the importance of public-private partnerships, advancements in energy storage, and the integration of smart technologies to achieve a sustainable and resilient military force.

by COL Nora Flott, COL Derek Baird, LTC(P) Tyler Standish, LTC(P) Brandon Van Orden, and LTC James Esquivel; Publication by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; An exploration of how the next generation of intelligence analysts, particularly those aged 18-22, are reshaping information consumption and communication through their reliance on digital platforms and AI technologies. With emphasis on the idea that while these digital natives are likely to enhance their critical thinking skills, their communication preferences will evolve towards more visual and interactive formats, significantly impacting the intelligence landscape of 2040.

by COL Leslie Carlson, LTC Fidel Arvelo, LTC Phillip Cain, LTC Samuel Meyer, and Lt Col Dorian Hatcher; Report by the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; This comprehensive report, authored by the student team Techno-Warfare Group, examines the integration of emerging technologies such as quantum computing, advanced AI, and autonomous systems, forecasting their transformative impact on military strategy and the skillsets leaders will require to dominate in this new era of conflict.

by COL Adam S. Camarano, LtCol Sung G. Kim, LTC William Prince Jr., LTC Robert H. Topper Jr., LTC Christopher A. Wilson; Publication from the US Army War College, Center for Strategic Leadership; China’s Divine Move offers a strategic analysis of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) efforts to reunify with Taiwan, examining the conditions necessary for this goal within the broader context of China’s grand strategy for global dominance. The report assesses the likelihood of various strategies, including a fait accompli, blockade, or military invasion, and evaluates China’s capabilities in maritime, economic, technological, and cyber domains. It concludes that while military action is unlikely due to potential global disruptions, China is likely to pursue strategic conditions for reunification by leveraging its comprehensive national power.